Jacob Maton — OGILVIE

Jacob Maton P Hickory Crawdads

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 38 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%21.1%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	33	124	42	8	5	0%	1.7	28.1%	8.1%	19.9%	1.4%	2.76	2.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	33	124	42	8	5	0%	1.7	33.9%	6.5%	27.4%	4.0%	2.76	3.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	57	252	53	16	5	0%	1.5	16.3%	7.5%	8.8%	2.5%	4.45	4.05	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	57	252	53	16	5	0%	1.5	16.3%	7.5%	8.8%	2.5%	4.45	4.05	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	57	252	53	16	5	0%	1.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	2.0%	4.45	3.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	36	0	38	160	34	14	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	35	0	37	156	33	13	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.6%	12.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.48	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	13	0	14	59	13	5	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.6%	12.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	57	12	5	2	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.6%	12.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.10	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	74	30	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.6%	12.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		57	0	89	376	76	29	8	0%	1.6	20.2%	7.7%	12.5%	2.1%	3.83	3.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	842	170	65	18	0%	1.6	20.2%	7.7%	12.5%	2.1%	3.83	3.55	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Maton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	21.1%	8.4%	3.0%	—	4.48	21.2%	12.5%	37	+0.08	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	88
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	87
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	87
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	87
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	87
Josh Lueke R 2011 · 3.24 FIP	26	SU	3.24	20.4%	8.5%	1.4%	.323	4.75	18.7%	12.4%	52	+1.51	2.29	191	86
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	85
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	85
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	85
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	85
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	85
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	84
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	84
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	84
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	84
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	84
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	21.1%	8.5%	1.17	4.42
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65