Kevin Dowdell — OGILVIE

Kevin Dowdell P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 60 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137145vR 153

ERA6.31

FIP6.31

K%15.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-4.1%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	4	0	3	22	2	4	0	0%	0.8	9.1%	18.2%	-9.1%	0.0%	16.20	4.64	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	4	0	3	22	2	4	0	0%	0.8	9.1%	18.2%	-9.1%	0.0%	16.20	5.50	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	10	0	9	43	7	9	1	0%	0.9	16.3%	20.9%	-4.7%	2.3%	5.00	5.65	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	10	0	9	43	7	9	1	0%	0.9	16.3%	20.9%	-4.7%	2.3%	5.00	5.65	—
2024	24	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	10	0	9	43	7	9	1	0%	0.9	16.3%	20.9%	-4.7%	2.3%	5.00	5.99	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	37	0	43	209	44	41	5	0%	1.2	15.6%	23.1%	-7.6%	3.0%	6.12	6.36	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	37	0	43	209	44	41	5	0%	1.2	15.6%	23.1%	-7.6%	3.0%	6.12	6.36	—
2025	25	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	37	0	43	209	44	41	5	0%	1.2	21.1%	19.6%	1.4%	2.4%	6.12	5.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	40	51	8	0%	1.1	15.9%	20.0%	-4.1%	3.0%	6.31	6.31	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	40	46	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	19.1%	-2.5%	3.1%	6.16	6.20	-1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	233	39	43	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	18.6%	-1.7%	3.2%	6.12	6.19	-1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	15	17	3	0%	1.1	16.6%	19.1%	-2.5%	3.1%	6.16	6.20	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	29	0	30	127	21	23	4	0%	1.0	16.8%	18.6%	-1.7%	3.2%	6.12	6.19	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	216	36	41	7	0%	1.0	16.7%	18.8%	-2.0%	3.2%	6.14	5.81	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	141	160	27	0%	1.1	16.7%	18.8%	-2.0%	3.2%	6.14	5.81	-2.9
Career	—	MLE		51	0	55	274	42	61	7	0%	1.1	15.2%	22.4%	-7.2%	2.6%	6.55	6.11	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	0	200	996	151	223	26	0%	1.1	15.2%	22.4%	-7.2%	2.6%	6.55	6.11	-3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Dowdell (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.31	15.9%	20.0%	3.0%	—	6.20	16.7%	-2.1%	113	-0.11	—	—	—
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	79
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	78
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	77
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	76
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	75
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	73
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	73
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	73
Holden Capps L 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.3%	19.1%	2.1%	.392	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	215	71
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	71
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	69
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	69
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	69
Marcus Reyes L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	27	SU	5.84	12.7%	15.3%	3.4%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	193	68
Hobbs Johnson L 2016 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	12.3%	17.6%	1.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	143	68
Mason Melotakis L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	27	SU	5.66	12.0%	11.4%	3.9%	.343	7.85	14.7%	2.5%	29	+2.19	3.32	142	67
Wayne Franklin L 2001 · 7.39 FIP	27	SU	7.39	15.0%	15.0%	6.7%	.342	5.42	14.4%	3.7%	269	-1.97	3.80	315	67
Zach Warren L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	15.2%	23.5%	0.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	184	67
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.4%	19.2%	1.20	6.20
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52