Tanner Kohlhepp

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	A+DET	46	1	61	4.55	2.45	28.6%	11.0%	—	K 22.0% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.41
2025	26	MIX2 levels	24	0	31	3.48	4.45	25.7%	8.6%	—	K 22.0% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.57
2026	27	AADET	44	2	63	3.86	2.54	28.1%	5.5%	—	K 22.7% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.25
2027PROJ	28	MLBDET	34	0	36	4.18	4.18	22.7%	7.9%	0.2
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBDET	10	0	11	4.27	4.32	22.5%	8.2%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Matt Ramsey (age 28) · Ryan Brasier (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%22.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	4	24	111	39	25	0	20%	1.2	26.0%	26.6%	-0.6%	0.0%	3.42	4.27	—
2023	24	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	4	24	111	39	25	0	20%	1.2	35.1%	22.5%	12.6%	0.0%	3.42	2.97	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	46	1	61	273	78	30	2	2%	1.3	22.0%	12.6%	9.4%	1.0%	4.55	3.41	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	46	1	61	273	78	30	2	2%	1.3	22.0%	12.6%	9.4%	1.0%	4.55	3.41	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	46	1	61	273	78	30	2	2%	1.3	28.6%	11.0%	17.6%	0.7%	4.55	2.45	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	31	140	36	12	6	0%	1.3	22.0%	10.6%	11.5%	5.5%	3.48	5.57	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	31	140	36	12	6	0%	1.3	22.0%	10.6%	11.5%	5.5%	3.48	5.57	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	31	140	36	12	6	0%	1.3	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	4.3%	3.48	4.45	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	2	63	253	71	14	5	5%	1.4	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.4%	3.86	3.25	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	2	63	253	71	14	5	5%	1.4	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.4%	3.86	3.25	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	44	2	63	253	71	14	5	5%	1.4	28.1%	5.5%	22.5%	2.0%	3.86	2.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	34	0	36	152	34	12	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.18	4.18	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	33	0	34	145	33	12	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.27	4.32	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.27	4.32	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	10	4	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.27	3.94	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	75	19	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.27	3.94	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		134	7	179	777	177	94	16	5%	1.3	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	2.1%	3.97	3.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	8	200	868	198	105	18	5%	1.3	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	2.1%	3.97	3.87	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Kohlhepp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	22.7%	7.9%	2.9%	—	4.32	22.5%	14.3%	34	+0.14	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	91
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	90
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	88
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	86
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	85
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	85
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Simon Castro R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	28	SU	3.01	22.7%	5.6%	2.0%	.313	3.99	28.3%	18.0%	75	+0.98	3.01	185	83
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	83
Rafael Betancourt R 2003 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	23.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.216	2.84	25.0%	20.8%	191	-0.97	1.79	686	83
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	83
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	83
Jason Motte R 2010 · 3.24 FIP	28	SU	3.24	26.0%	7.2%	2.6%	.269	2.69	27.3%	21.8%	140	-0.55	2.22	387	83
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	83
Ryan Tepera R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	22.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.266	3.81	24.3%	15.9%	164	+0.70	2.35	445	82
Fernando Rodney R 2005 · 3.62 FIP	28	SU	3.62	22.7%	7.6%	2.7%	.274	3.54	23.4%	12.9%	163	-0.08	1.85	933	82
Cristhian Martinez R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	20.0%	4.5%	2.9%	.312	3.43	19.8%	14.6%	151	-0.18	3.09	204	82
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	81
John Gorman R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	23.4%	7.5%	3.5%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	2.08	141	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	22.6%	8.0%	1.17	4.22
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*