Erik Tolman
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'2" / 193 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2030
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%8.5%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2030
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 9 | 9 | 28 | 120 | 25 | 13 | 0 | 14.8% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 3.08 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 33 | 13 | 96 | 399 | 96 | 54 | 7 | 18.7% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.67 | 4.69 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 6 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 9.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 72 | 50 | 10 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 90 | 382 | 78 | 56 | 12 | 20.5% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 4.84 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 73 | 48 | 11 | 20.3% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 72 | 46 | 11 | 20.3% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 5.04 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 69 | 44 | 10 | 20.2% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 5.03 | 5.06 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 73 | 40 | 10 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 69 | 39 | 10 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 65 | 37 | 10 | 21.4% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.03 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 61 | 36 | 10 | 21.1% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 56 | 35 | 10 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 5.19 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 51 | 33 | 9 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 5.31 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 22 | 128 | 543 | 98 | 79 | 11 | 18.1% | 14.5% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 4.51 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 153 | 123 | 17 | 18.1% | 14.5% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 4.51 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Tolman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | — | 5.05 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 250 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.86 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 2.4% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 151 | 83 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 82 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 79 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.83 | 18.0% | 14.4% | 4.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 378 | 77 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.55 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .308 | 4.06 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.49 | 3.37 | 353 | 77 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 76 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 76 |
| Orlando Lara L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 76 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 76 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 75 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 381 | 75 |
| Blair Walters L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 262 | 75 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 74 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 74 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 74 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.06 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.20 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.92 | 379 | 74 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 74 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 13.0% | 91 | -1.28 | 3.15 | 442 | 73 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.17 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .270 | 3.79 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.38 | 2.72 | 455 | 73 |
| Luis Lugo L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.19 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 3.8% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 622 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.