Erik Tolman — OGILVIE

Erik Tolman P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 131

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%18.9%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	28	120	25	13	0	100%	3.1	14.8%	9.7%	5.1%	0.0%	2.57	3.08	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	28	120	25	13	0	100%	3.1	14.8%	9.7%	5.1%	0.0%	2.57	3.08	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	28	120	25	13	0	100%	3.1	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	0.0%	2.57	2.71	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	18.7%	15.4%	3.3%	2.2%	3.67	4.68	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	18.7%	15.4%	3.3%	2.2%	3.67	4.68	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	24.1%	13.5%	10.5%	1.8%	3.67	3.74	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	9	38	9	4	0	0%	1.2	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	0.0%	2.89	2.46	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	40	1	40	179	51	27	4	2%	1.0	24.7%	14.7%	10.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.58	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	40	1	40	179	51	27	4	2%	1.0	24.7%	14.7%	10.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	WSH	32	1	31	141	42	23	4	3%	1.0	29.8%	16.3%	13.5%	2.8%	5.23	4.21	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	WSH	8	0	9	38	9	4	0	0%	1.2	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	0.0%	2.89	2.43	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	WSH	8	0	9	38	9	4	0	0%	1.2	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	0.0%	2.89	2.43	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	4	4	1	0%	1.1	18.9%	16.1%	2.8%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	16.1%	2.8%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	46	202	55	31	5	—	—	27.4%	15.2%	12.2%	2.3%	4.74	4.65	-0.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	15	62	55	31	5	—	—	88.9%	49.3%	39.6%	7.5%	14.71	5.95	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	54	43	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	15.2%	3.6%	2.8%	5.33	5.36	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	52	41	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	14.9%	3.9%	3.0%	5.35	5.42	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	62	0	65	274	52	42	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	15.2%	3.6%	2.8%	5.33	5.36	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	59	0	62	262	49	39	8	0%	1.1	18.9%	14.9%	3.9%	3.0%	5.35	5.42	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		133	0	141	593	113	88	16	0%	1.1	19.1%	14.8%	4.3%	2.7%	5.17	4.85	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	842	161	125	23	0%	1.1	19.1%	14.8%	4.3%	2.7%	5.17	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		82	23	164	698	136	99	14	28%	2.0	19.5%	14.2%	5.3%	2.1%	3.73	4.38	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	28	200	851	166	121	18	28%	2.0	19.5%	14.2%	5.3%	2.1%	3.73	4.38	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Tolman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	17.7%	16.2%	2.9%	—	5.39	18.8%	3.8%	133	-0.23	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	78
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	78
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	77
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	77
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	76
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	75
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	75
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	75
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	75
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	75
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	74
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	74
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	74
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	74
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	74
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	73
Randy Labaut L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	26	SU	4.73	16.8%	13.9%	2.4%	.244	4.99	17.7%	5.4%	98	+0.26	1.91	302	72
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	72
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	18.4%	15.5%	1.12	5.44
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99