Erik Tolman

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	9	9	28	2.57	2.71	20.8%	10.8%	—	K 14.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.08
2025	26	MIX3 levels	33	13	96	3.67	3.74	24.1%	13.5%	—	K 18.7% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.68
2026	27	MIX2 levels	47	1	46	4.47	4.03	28.4%	15.4%	0.3	K 25.5% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.18
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	38	0	40	4.81	5.10	22.8%	15.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ78% MLB	29	MLBWSH	30	0	32	5.00	5.18	22.2%	15.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ83% MLB	30	MLBWSH	27	0	28	5.17	5.32	21.6%	15.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo82

xwOBA vs70

K%67

Form2.93 ERA (proj 4.81) · K 25.4% (proj 22.8%) · BB 13.4% (proj 15.8%) ▲ last 90d · 15 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJohn Bale (age 27) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Stephen Randolph (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA4.81

FIP5.10

K%22.8%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	28	120	25	13	0	100%	3.1	14.8%	9.7%	5.1%	0.0%	2.57	3.08	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	28	120	25	13	0	100%	3.1	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	0.0%	2.57	2.71	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	18.7%	15.4%	3.3%	2.2%	3.67	4.68	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	18.7%	15.4%	3.3%	2.2%	3.67	4.68	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	24.1%	13.5%	10.5%	1.8%	3.67	3.74	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	46	208	59	32	5	2%	1.0	25.5%	14.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.47	4.18	+0.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	46	208	59	32	5	2%	1.0	25.5%	14.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.47	4.18	+0.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	46	208	59	32	5	2%	1.0	28.4%	15.4%	13.0%	2.4%	4.47	4.03	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	0	15	67	17	9	1	0%	1.0	25.4%	13.4%	11.9%	1.5%	2.93	3.49	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	38	0	40	169	38	27	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	15.8%	6.9%	2.8%	4.81	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	39	0	41	175	39	27	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	15.4%	6.9%	3.0%	5.00	5.18	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	32	0	34	143	31	22	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.2%	6.4%	3.2%	5.17	5.32	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	32	135	30	21	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	15.4%	6.9%	3.0%	5.00	5.18	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	27	0	28	118	26	18	4	0%	1.0	21.6%	15.2%	6.4%	3.2%	5.17	5.32	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	0	75	321	73	48	9	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.64	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	850	193	127	24	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.64	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		89	23	170	727	145	103	14	26%	1.9	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.0%	3.71	4.27	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	27	200	855	171	121	17	26%	1.9	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.0%	3.71	4.27	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 31 IPFIP 4.21 → 4.51 (+0.30)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.79%	—	×0.860	25.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.31%	—	×0.900	14.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.21 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 56 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.91 (+0.87)K% 25.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.23%	—	×0.770	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.39%	—	×1.150	14.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷0.967	×1.250	1.19%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 29 IPFIP 5.52 → 6.53 (+1.01)K% 19.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.08%	—	×0.810	15.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.27%	—	×1.100	16.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.82%	÷0.963	×1.200	4.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 5.52 → 6.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 11 IPFIP 2.17 → 3.19 (+1.02)K% 32.0% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.740	23.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.180	16.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 20 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.08 (+0.63)K% 20.0% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.740	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×1.180	9.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.917	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 8 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.50 (+1.16)K% 22.9% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.680	15.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.14%	—	×1.250	21.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Tolman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	22.8%	15.8%	2.8%	—	5.24	22.0%	6.7%	75	+0.14	—	—	—
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	74
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	73
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	72
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	71
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	71
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	71
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	71
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	70
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	69
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	69
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	69
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	68
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	68
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	67
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.02	369	67
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	67
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	66
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	66
Jordan Norberto L 2015 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	16.9%	14.1%	1.5%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	117	66
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	22.6%	15.3%	1.08	4.75
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*