Michael Byrne prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Michael Byrne P Louisville Bats

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%23.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	19	0	22	92	17	8	0	0%	1.1	14.2%	10.0%	4.2%	0.0%	1.25	3.17	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	19	0	22	92	17	8	0	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.7%	9.8%	0.0%	1.25	2.64	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	37	6	65	281	60	15	7	16%	1.8	16.4%	6.1%	10.3%	2.8%	4.27	4.04	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	37	6	65	281	60	15	7	16%	1.8	21.4%	5.3%	16.0%	2.5%	4.27	3.34	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	3	50	212	38	22	2	9%	1.5	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	1.2%	3.22	3.92	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	3	50	212	38	22	2	9%	1.5	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	0.9%	3.22	3.42	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	61	278	73	27	7	0%	1.5	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.36	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	61	278	73	27	7	0%	1.5	26.3%	9.7%	16.5%	2.5%	4.55	3.52	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	31	0	52	219	63	16	5	0%	1.7	23.3%	8.0%	15.3%	2.7%	2.77	3.63	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	31	0	52	219	63	16	5	0%	1.7	23.3%	8.0%	15.3%	2.7%	2.77	3.63	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	31	0	52	219	63	16	5	0%	1.7	28.8%	7.3%	21.5%	2.3%	2.77	2.85	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	11	45	16	5	0	9%	1.0	35.6%	11.1%	24.4%	0.0%	5.06	1.50	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	11	45	16	5	0	9%	1.0	35.6%	11.1%	24.4%	0.0%	5.06	1.50	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	1	11	45	16	5	0	9%	1.0	35.6%	11.1%	24.4%	0.0%	5.06	1.51	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CIN	32	0	34	142	33	13	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.43	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	0	12	51	12	5	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	12	5	2	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	81	32	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		174	10	261	1127	218	100	26	6%	1.5	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.3%	3.62	3.84	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	8	200	862	167	77	20	6%	1.5	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.3%	3.62	3.84	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Byrne (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	23.4%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.43	23.0%	14.0%	34	+0.18	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	89
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	87
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	86
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	85
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	84
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	83
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	83
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	80
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	80
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	80
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	79
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	23.2%	8.9%	1.19	4.30
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16