Michael Byrne
P
Louisville Bats
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
K%23.4%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 19 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 3.17 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 19 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 2.64 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 37 | 6 | 65 | 281 | 60 | 15 | 7 | 16% | 1.8 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 3.91 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 37 | 6 | 65 | 281 | 60 | 15 | 7 | 16% | 1.8 | 21.4% | 5.3% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 3.34 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 3 | 50 | 212 | 38 | 22 | 2 | 9% | 1.5 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 3.22 | 3.95 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 3 | 50 | 212 | 38 | 22 | 2 | 9% | 1.5 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 0.9% | 3.22 | 3.42 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 73 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.38 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 73 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 9.7% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 31 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 63 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.3% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 2.77 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 31 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 63 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.8% | 7.3% | 21.5% | 2.3% | 2.77 | 2.85 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 9% | 1.0 | 35.6% | 11.1% | 24.4% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 1.50 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 9% | 1.0 | 35.6% | 11.1% | 24.4% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 1.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 32 | 0 | 34 | 142 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.09 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 81 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 174 | 10 | 261 | 1127 | 218 | 100 | 25 | 6% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.82 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 8 | 200 | 862 | 167 | 77 | 19 | 6% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Byrne (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 34 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 86 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 86 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 85 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 85 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 84 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 83 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 83 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 81 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 81 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 81 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 80 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 80 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.02 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .272 | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.45 | 3.57 | 224 | 80 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 80 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 80 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 79 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 35 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 1.19 | 4.34 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |