Jonathan Bowlan — OGILVIE

Jonathan Bowlan P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8779vR 71

ERA3.27

FIP3.30

K%28.3%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%21.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p8630.9%

p9030.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.260

FB+2.2 (59%)

SI (11%)

SL (26%)

CH-1.3 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.674 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	9	9	35	165	23	9	6	100%	3.9	9.5%	6.8%	2.7%	5.1%	6.94	5.96	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	9	9	35	165	23	9	6	100%	3.9	13.9%	5.5%	8.5%	3.6%	6.94	4.79	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	146	572	150	23	9	88%	5.6	19.8%	4.7%	15.1%	2.1%	3.14	3.15	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	146	572	150	23	9	88%	5.6	26.2%	4.0%	22.2%	1.6%	3.14	2.32	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	4	4	17	66	25	3	0	100%	4.2	30.7%	5.0%	25.7%	0.0%	1.59	1.14	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	4	4	17	66	25	3	0	100%	4.2	37.9%	4.5%	33.3%	0.0%	1.59	0.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	62	291	62	22	8	100%	3.7	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.9%	5.92	5.05	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	62	291	62	22	8	100%	3.7	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.7%	5.92	3.84	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	22	105	474	108	45	20	85%	4.0	18.7%	9.4%	9.4%	5.1%	5.83	5.53	-0.7
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	22	105	474	108	45	20	85%	4.0	18.7%	9.4%	9.4%	5.1%	5.83	5.53	-0.7
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	22	105	474	108	45	20	85%	4.0	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	4.2%	5.83	4.80	+0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	17	107	466	101	36	17	47%	3.0	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	3.1%	4.89	4.10	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	17	107	466	101	36	17	47%	3.0	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	3.1%	4.89	4.10	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	17	107	466	101	36	17	47%	3.0	21.7%	7.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.89	4.29	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	80	322	91	26	7	2%	1.4	25.9%	7.8%	18.1%	2.4%	3.14	3.19	+1.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	80	322	91	26	7	2%	1.4	25.9%	7.8%	18.1%	2.4%	3.14	3.19	+1.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	1	80	322	91	26	7	2%	1.4	28.3%	8.1%	20.2%	2.2%	3.14	2.94	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			94	3	105	434	121	34	17	3%	1.1	27.9%	7.8%	20.0%	3.9%	3.77	3.87	+0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	58	0	56	226	71	14	7	0%	1.0	30.9%	6.3%	24.7%	2.9%	3.21	2.89	+1.1
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	58	0	56	226	71	14	7	0%	1.0	30.9%	6.3%	24.7%	2.9%	3.21	2.89	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	PHI	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	PHI	57	0	55	223	69	14	7	0%	1.0	30.9%	6.3%	24.7%	3.1%	3.27	3.01	+1.0
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	PHI	57	0	55	223	69	14	7	0%	1.0	30.9%	6.3%	24.7%	3.1%	3.27	3.01	+1.0
ROS	29	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.3%	7.1%	21.2%	3.1%	3.27	3.30	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.3%	7.1%	21.2%	3.3%	3.39	3.42	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	62	251	78	16	8	—	—	31.1%	6.3%	24.8%	3.1%	3.22	2.93	+1.3
FULL	29	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	61	257	78	16	8	—	—	30.4%	6.1%	24.2%	3.0%	3.28	2.98	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	122	0	128	543	147	40	18	0%	1.1	27.0%	7.4%	19.6%	3.3%	3.86	3.96	+0.9
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	114	0	120	506	133	39	18	0%	1.1	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	3.5%	4.06	4.19	+0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	106	0	111	468	119	38	18	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.2%	17.3%	3.8%	4.29	4.44	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	116	0	122	515	139	38	18	0%	1.1	27.0%	7.4%	19.6%	3.5%	3.99	4.09	+0.9
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	109	0	114	481	126	38	18	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	3.8%	4.20	4.33	+0.5
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	100	0	105	443	113	36	18	0%	1.1	25.5%	8.2%	17.3%	4.1%	4.44	4.59	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		424	3	452	1899	507	148	72	1%	1.1	26.7%	7.8%	18.9%	3.8%	4.09	3.92	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	1	200	840	224	65	32	1%	1.1	26.7%	7.8%	18.9%	3.8%	4.09	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		234	93	608	2582	521	181	85	40%	2.6	20.2%	7.0%	13.1%	3.3%	4.38	4.08	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	31	200	849	171	60	28	40%	2.6	20.2%	7.0%	13.1%	3.3%	4.38	4.08	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Bowlan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	25.3%	7.7%	3.1%	—	4.18	26.3%	18.5%	359	+0.17	—	—	—
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	74
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	72
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	71
Zach McAllister R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	29	SU	3.70	26.5%	8.4%	3.2%	.292	4.70	21.4%	16.7%	57	+1.00	2.82	363	71
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	70
Jaye Chapman R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	29	SU	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.51	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.26	3.25	150	70
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	69
Radhames Liz R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SW	2.81	24.8%	9.2%	1.2%	.283	4.45	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.64	2.81	110	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	69
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	69
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	69
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	68
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	68
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	68
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	68
Matt Magill R 2019 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	27.9%	7.4%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	259	68
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	575	67
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	66
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	676	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	124	26.0%	7.8%	1.32	4.04
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34