Jonathan Bowlan

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 30 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	36	17	107	4.89	4.29	21.7%	7.7%	0.3	K 18.8% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.05
2025	28	MIX2 levels	58	1	80	3.14	2.94	28.3%	8.1%	1.6	K 26.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.16
2026	29	MIX2 levels	60	0	57	3.30	3.08	32.3%	6.5%	1.0	K 31.9% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.03
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	51	0	54	3.51	3.52	30.3%	7.1%	0.7
2028PROJ92% MLB	31	MLBPHI	51	0	54	3.66	3.76	29.5%	7.4%	0.5
2029PROJ93% MLB	32	MLBPHI	47	0	49	3.87	4.01	28.7%	7.8%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo87

Form3.86 ERA (proj 3.51) · K 35.4% (proj 30.3%) · BB 7.6% (proj 7.1%) ▲ last 90d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsAquilino López (age 30) · Junior Guerra (age 30) · Steve Delabar (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9082vR 74

ERA3.51

FIP3.52

K%30.3%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%23.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p8831.3%

p9031.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.262

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	9	9	35	165	23	9	6	100%	3.9	9.5%	6.8%	2.7%	5.1%	6.94	5.96	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	9	9	35	165	23	9	6	100%	3.9	13.9%	5.5%	8.5%	3.6%	6.94	4.79	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	146	572	150	23	9	88%	5.6	19.8%	4.7%	15.1%	2.1%	3.14	3.15	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	146	572	150	23	9	88%	5.6	26.2%	4.0%	22.2%	1.6%	3.14	2.32	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	4	4	17	66	25	3	0	100%	4.2	30.7%	5.0%	25.7%	0.0%	1.59	1.14	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	4	4	17	66	25	3	0	100%	4.2	37.9%	4.5%	33.3%	0.0%	1.59	0.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	62	291	62	22	8	100%	3.7	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.9%	5.92	5.05	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	62	291	62	22	8	100%	3.7	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.7%	5.92	3.84	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	22	105	474	108	45	20	85%	4.0	19.1%	9.4%	9.8%	5.1%	5.83	5.49	-0.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	22	105	474	108	45	20	85%	4.0	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	4.2%	5.83	4.80	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	17	107	466	101	36	17	47%	3.0	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.05	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	17	107	466	101	36	17	47%	3.0	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.05	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	17	107	466	101	36	17	47%	3.0	21.7%	7.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.89	4.29	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	80	322	91	26	7	2%	1.4	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.4%	3.14	3.16	+1.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	80	322	91	26	7	2%	1.4	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.4%	3.14	3.16	+1.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	1	80	322	91	26	7	2%	1.4	28.3%	8.1%	20.2%	2.2%	3.14	2.94	+1.6
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	57	232	75	15	8	0%	1.0	31.9%	6.6%	25.3%	3.3%	3.30	3.03	+1.0
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	57	232	75	15	8	0%	1.0	31.9%	6.6%	25.3%	3.3%	3.30	3.03	+1.0
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	57	232	75	15	8	0%	1.0	32.3%	6.5%	25.9%	3.4%	3.30	3.08	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	3	106	440	125	35	18	3%	1.1	28.4%	8.0%	20.5%	4.1%	3.81	3.94	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PHI	51	0	54	228	69	16	7	0%	1.1	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	3.1%	3.51	3.52	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	56	0	59	250	74	19	8	0%	1.1	29.5%	7.4%	22.1%	3.3%	3.66	3.76	+0.6
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	50	0	53	223	64	17	8	0%	1.1	28.7%	7.8%	20.9%	3.6%	3.87	4.01	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	51	0	54	228	67	17	8	0%	1.1	29.5%	7.4%	22.1%	3.3%	3.66	3.76	+0.5
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	47	0	49	207	59	16	7	0%	1.0	28.7%	7.8%	20.9%	3.6%	3.87	4.01	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	3	210	876	252	68	33	2%	1.1	28.8%	7.8%	21.0%	3.8%	3.78	3.73	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	3	200	836	241	65	31	2%	1.1	28.8%	7.8%	21.0%	3.8%	3.78	3.73	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		236	93	610	2588	531	182	85	39%	2.6	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	3.3%	4.38	4.07	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	31	200	849	174	60	28	39%	2.6	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	3.3%	4.38	4.07	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 36 IPFIP 1.61 → 1.95 (+0.33)K% 31.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.69%	—	×0.860	27.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×0.900	5.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷1.003	×1.100	0.77%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.61 → 1.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 104 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.05 (+0.15)K% 21.8% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.83%	—	×0.860	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×0.900	6.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.111	×1.100	3.09%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 67 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.51 (+0.47)K% 19.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.59%	—	×0.860	16.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×0.900	9.73%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷0.942	×1.100	4.73%

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 35 IPFIP 4.03 → 5.47 (+1.44)K% 28.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.66%	—	×0.810	23.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×1.100	8.72%
HR / BF /BF	4.27%	÷0.872	×1.200	5.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 4.03 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 39 IPFIP 4.99 → 6.06 (+1.06)K% 16.4% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.39%	—	×0.810	13.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.29%	—	×1.100	10.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.83%	÷0.905	×1.200	5.07%

Result: FIP 4.99 → 6.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Royals · 19 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.97 (+1.15)K% 29.2% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.21%	—	×0.680	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.49%	—	×1.250	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.035	×1.400	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 17 IPFIP 0.48 → 1.14 (+0.67)K% 37.9% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.88%	—	×0.810	30.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.100	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.48 → 1.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 76 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.38 (+0.97)K% 25.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.85%	—	×0.770	19.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.42%	—	×1.150	5.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.70%	÷0.884	×1.250	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Bowlan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.52	30.3%	7.1%	3.1%	—	3.88	29.2%	21.6%	112	+0.36	—	—	—
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	67
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	65
Steve Delabar R 2013 · 2.43 FIP	30	SU	2.43	32.4%	9.5%	1.6%	.322	4.28	22.3%	9.4%	104	+1.85	2.43	229	63
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	63
Jason Motte R 2012 · 3.13 FIP	30	SU	3.13	30.8%	5.7%	3.5%	.238	4.34	16.2%	11.5%	73	+1.21	2.22	387	63
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	63
James Hoyt R 2017 · 3.19 FIP	30	SU	3.19	30.4%	7.5%	3.1%	.338	3.30	24.7%	15.1%	87	+0.11	1.61	312	62
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	61
Brad Brach R 2016 · 2.69 FIP	30	SU	2.69	29.6%	7.7%	2.0%	.266	3.41	23.7%	13.8%	185	+0.72	2.69	570	61
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	61
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	61
Rafael Betancourt R 2005 · 2.54 FIP	30	SU	2.54	26.8%	5.5%	1.8%	.291	3.01	23.4%	19.7%	207	+0.47	1.79	686	61
Josh Fields R 2016 · 2.41 FIP	30	SU	2.41	26.2%	5.9%	1.4%	.341	4.53	23.5%	16.5%	123	+2.12	1.80	330	60
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	60
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.51	246	60
Deolis Guerra R 2019 · 2.53 FIP	30	SU	2.53	30.2%	6.2%	2.2%	.257	3.89	23.0%	15.6%	66	+1.36	2.53	364	60
Jon Edwards R 2018 · 2.40 FIP	30	SU	2.40	30.3%	7.7%	1.6%	.304	4.43	25.1%	13.5%	49	+2.03	2.40	132	60
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	60
Brendan Donnelly R 2002 · 2.38 FIP	31	SU	2.38	27.1%	8.0%	1.0%	.236	3.06	25.1%	17.9%	181	+0.68	2.23	385	60
Jeff Zimmerman R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	28	SU	3.58	26.4%	5.5%	3.7%	.216	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	229	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	29.1%	7.6%	1.40	3.72
Blake Parker ('21)	1.7	58	26.7%	7.9%	1.30	3.47
Matt Bush ('23)	1.1	53	25.2%	8.0%	1.41	3.75
Shawn Kelley ('19)	2.3	46	27.0%	7.3%	1.47	3.80
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*