Jonathan Bowlan
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 106 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9485vR 76
ERA3.19
FIP3.23
K%27.8%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%20.3%
ROS IP106
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.3
Whiff%
p9033.5%
K%
p9030.4%
xwOBA vs
p900.248
FB+2.2 (58%)
SI (14%)
CU (2%)
SL (27%)
CH-1.3 (13%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 9 | 9 | 35 | 165 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 9.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.94 | 5.96 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 9 | 9 | 35 | 165 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 13.9% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 6.94 | 4.79 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 146 | 572 | 150 | 23 | 9 | 88% | 5.6 | 19.8% | 4.7% | 15.1% | 2.2% | 3.14 | 3.22 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 146 | 572 | 150 | 23 | 9 | 88% | 5.6 | 26.2% | 4.0% | 22.2% | 1.6% | 3.14 | 2.32 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 4 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 4.2 | 30.7% | 5.0% | 25.7% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.14 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 4 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 4.2 | 37.9% | 4.5% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 0.69 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 62 | 291 | 62 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.92 | 5.26 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 62 | 291 | 62 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.3% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 5.92 | 3.84 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 22 | 105 | 474 | 108 | 45 | 20 | 85% | 4.0 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.83 | 5.91 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 22 | 105 | 474 | 108 | 45 | 20 | 85% | 4.0 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 4.2% | 5.83 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 17 | 107 | 466 | 101 | 36 | 17 | 47% | 3.0 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.00 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 17 | 107 | 466 | 101 | 36 | 17 | 47% | 3.0 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.29 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 1 | 80 | 322 | 91 | 26 | 7 | 2% | 1.4 | 26.6% | 8.2% | 18.4% | 2.3% | 3.14 | 3.18 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 1 | 80 | 322 | 91 | 26 | 7 | 2% | 1.4 | 28.3% | 8.1% | 20.2% | 2.2% | 3.14 | 2.94 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 34 | 0 | 32 | 128 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.4% | 5.6% | 24.8% | 1.6% | 2.84 | 2.12 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 101 | 0 | 106 | 448 | 125 | 34 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 2.8% | 3.19 | 3.23 | +2.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 101 | 0 | 106 | 448 | 125 | 34 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.26 | +2.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 138 | 576 | 165 | 41 | 14 | — | — | 28.6% | 7.1% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 3.11 | 2.98 | +3.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 137 | 577 | 165 | 41 | 15 | — | — | 28.5% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 2.5% | 3.16 | 2.98 | +3.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 122 | 0 | 128 | 543 | 142 | 43 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 7.9% | 18.3% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.92 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 114 | 0 | 120 | 506 | 127 | 42 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.18 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 106 | 0 | 111 | 468 | 113 | 40 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 4.28 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 97 | 0 | 102 | 429 | 100 | 39 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.7% | 4.54 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 116 | 0 | 122 | 515 | 135 | 41 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 7.9% | 18.3% | 3.1% | 3.85 | 3.95 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 109 | 0 | 114 | 481 | 121 | 40 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 3.3% | 4.07 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 100 | 0 | 105 | 443 | 107 | 38 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 4.31 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 92 | 0 | 97 | 410 | 95 | 37 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 588 | 3 | 624 | 2632 | 673 | 217 | 87 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 3.81 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 216 | 70 | 28 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 210 | 93 | 584 | 2484 | 500 | 186 | 83 | 44% | 2.8 | 20.1% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.18 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 32 | 200 | 851 | 171 | 64 | 28 | 44% | 2.8 | 20.1% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Bowlan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.16 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 359 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 70 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 70 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 69 |
| Junior Guerra R 2027 · 3.02 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.02 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .269 | 4.29 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 390 | +1.27 | 3.02 | 646 | 69 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 68 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 67 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 67 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 67 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.64 | 26.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .280 | 3.18 | 26.6% | 19.8% | 132 | -0.46 | 2.56 | 364 | 67 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 66 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 66 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.61 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 177 | 66 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 66 |
| Phil Klein R 2024 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 66 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.82 | 27.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .339 | 4.62 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 176 | +0.80 | 2.21 | 778 | 66 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 66 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 65 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 65 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 65 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.23 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .283 | 3.66 | 20.5% | 12.4% | 148 | +0.43 | 2.72 | 530 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 120 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 1.27 | 4.11 |
| Luis Garcia ('23) | 3 | 113 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 1.19 | 3.63 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |