Jonathan Bowlan
P
Philadelphia Phillies
+1.2
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.08
FIP4.23
xFIP2.86
SIERA2.49
K%23.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.7%
IP88
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p9033.7%
K%
p6825.6%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
FB+2.2 (55%)
SI (14%)
CU (4%)
SL (26%)
CH-1.3 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 9 | 9 | 35 | 165 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.94 | 5.96 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 23 | 146 | 572 | 150 | 23 | 9 | 19.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 3.14 | 3.17 | +3.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 4 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 30.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.14 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 17 | 17 | 62 | 291 | 62 | 22 | 8 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 5.92 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 22 | 105 | 474 | 108 | 45 | 20 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 5.83 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 36 | 17 | 107 | 466 | 101 | 36 | 17 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.15 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 58 | 1 | 80 | 322 | 91 | 26 | 7 | 26.6% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.14 | 3.16 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 86 | 29 | 11 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 4.15 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 88 | 370 | 94 | 30 | 11 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 3.82 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 85 | 360 | 89 | 30 | 11 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.10 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 83 | 29 | 11 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.22 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 84 | 26 | 11 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 78 | 25 | 10 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 72 | 24 | 10 | 23.7% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 65 | 24 | 10 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 59 | 23 | 10 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 53 | 22 | 9 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 183 | 93 | 559 | 2385 | 469 | 179 | 77 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.17 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 33 | 200 | 853 | 168 | 64 | 28 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Bowlan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.13 | 24.5% | 16.4% | 246 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Junior Guerra R 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.23 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 2.0% | .269 | 4.14 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 390 | +0.91 | 3.23 | 646 | 72 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 72 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 70 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .279 | 2.99 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 60 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 385 | 69 |
| Phil Klein R 2024 · 3.12 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.12 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 178 | 68 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.13 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .278 | 2.34 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.79 | 2.16 | 287 | 67 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 2.89 | 30.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.96 | 29.1% | 21.2% | 405 | +1.07 | 1.99 | 1,253 | 67 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.32 | 26.7% | 7.6% | 4.6% | .281 | 4.23 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 16 | -0.09 | 2.76 | 345 | 66 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 66 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 66 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.77 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 4.21 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.44 | 3.77 | 725 | 66 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 4.38 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.63 | 3.40 | 556 | 65 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 65 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.85 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.74 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +0.89 | 2.83 | 363 | 64 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 64 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.48 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.23 | 3.25 | 150 | 64 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 64 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 64 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.11 | 158 | 64 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 64 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.674 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $12M | $30M | +$18M | ||