Josh Winder — OGILVIE

Josh Winder P St. Paul Saints

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.51

FIP4.60

K%19.7%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4545

SL+1.0 (42%)

CH (23%)

SI (8%)

FB (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	9	9	39	157	42	6	1	100%	4.3	18.2%	4.8%	13.4%	0.9%	3.72	2.66	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	9	9	39	157	42	6	1	100%	4.3	26.8%	3.8%	22.9%	0.6%	3.72	1.73	—
2019	22	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	126	494	118	30	10	100%	6.0	17.7%	7.2%	10.5%	2.6%	2.65	3.96	—
2019	22	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	126	494	118	30	10	100%	6.0	23.9%	6.1%	17.8%	2.0%	2.65	2.97	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	72	275	80	13	9	100%	5.1	23.9%	5.1%	18.8%	3.4%	2.62	3.60	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	72	275	80	13	9	100%	5.1	29.1%	4.7%	24.4%	3.3%	2.62	3.04	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	17	85	364	61	26	15	81%	4.0	16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	4.2%	4.76	4.90	-0.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	17	85	364	61	26	15	81%	4.0	16.8%	7.1%	9.6%	4.1%	4.76	4.88	+0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	70	314	74	33	8	0%	1.8	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.21	+0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	70	314	74	33	8	0%	1.8	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.21	+0.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	70	314	74	33	8	0%	1.8	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	2.5%	4.89	3.89	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	54	248	65	14	5	3%	1.6	20.3%	6.1%	14.2%	2.8%	5.87	3.67	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	54	248	65	14	5	3%	1.6	20.3%	6.1%	14.2%	2.8%	5.87	3.67	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	1	54	248	65	14	5	3%	1.6	26.2%	5.6%	20.6%	2.0%	5.87	2.67	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	11	111	472	85	33	14	29%	2.9	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.39	4.10	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	MIN	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIN	48	0	50	212	40	18	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.69	4.81	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIN	44	0	47	197	36	18	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.0%	9.2%	3.6%	4.90	5.04	-0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	MIN	41	0	43	182	32	17	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	3.8%	5.14	5.29	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIN	17	0	18	76	14	7	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.69	4.81	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	20	10	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.0%	9.2%	3.6%	4.90	5.04	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	MIN	28	0	29	122	21	12	5	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	3.8%	5.14	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	11	184	782	141	61	25	10%	1.7	18.1%	7.8%	10.2%	3.2%	4.61	4.33	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		117	12	200	850	153	66	27	10%	1.7	18.1%	7.8%	10.2%	3.2%	4.61	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		138	62	445	1852	355	129	55	45%	3.2	19.2%	6.9%	12.2%	3.0%	3.88	3.98	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	28	200	832	160	58	25	45%	3.2	19.2%	6.9%	12.2%	3.0%	3.88	3.98	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Winder (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	19.7%	8.4%	3.1%	—	5.03	18.3%	9.3%	140	+0.43	—	—	—
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	78
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	76
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	72
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	71
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	71
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	71
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	70
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	70
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	70
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	70
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	70
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	432	69
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	69
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	18.7%	8.8%	1.33	4.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58