Josh Winder
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.52
FIP4.63
K%20.4%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+1.0 (42%)
CH (23%)
SI (8%)
FB (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 9 | 9 | 39 | 157 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.2% | 4.8% | 13.4% | 0.9% | 3.72 | 2.66 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 9 | 9 | 39 | 157 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.8% | 3.8% | 22.9% | 0.6% | 3.72 | 1.73 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 21 | 21 | 126 | 494 | 118 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 2.65 | 3.97 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 21 | 21 | 126 | 494 | 118 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 6.1% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 2.65 | 2.97 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 72 | 275 | 80 | 13 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.9% | 5.1% | 18.8% | 3.1% | 2.62 | 3.43 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 72 | 275 | 80 | 13 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 29.1% | 4.7% | 24.4% | 3.3% | 2.62 | 3.04 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 17 | 85 | 364 | 61 | 26 | 15 | 81% | 4.0 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 4.76 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 17 | 85 | 364 | 61 | 26 | 15 | 81% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 70 | 314 | 74 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 70 | 314 | 74 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 1 | 54 | 248 | 65 | 14 | 5 | 3% | 1.6 | 21.5% | 7.1% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 5.87 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 1 | 54 | 248 | 65 | 14 | 5 | 3% | 1.6 | 26.2% | 5.6% | 20.6% | 2.0% | 5.87 | 2.67 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 44 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 33 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.16 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.16 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 11 | 184 | 782 | 143 | 63 | 25 | 10% | 1.7 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.35 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 12 | 200 | 850 | 155 | 68 | 27 | 10% | 1.7 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 62 | 445 | 1852 | 360 | 134 | 54 | 45% | 3.2 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 3.98 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 28 | 200 | 832 | 162 | 60 | 24 | 45% | 3.2 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Winder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 5.06 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 140 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 75 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 74 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 73 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 72 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 72 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 71 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 71 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 71 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 70 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 70 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 69 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 69 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 69 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 69 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2024 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 68 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 68 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 68 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 1.33 | 4.81 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |