Josiah Gray prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Josiah Gray P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 209 lbs A+ Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 SEASON TOTAL16 act + 0 ip · rates below = full season (so far + ros)

showingTOTAL

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6860vR 52

ERA9.00

FIP1.85

K%59.2%

BB%29.6%

K-BB%29.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

SI (10%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.9 (23%)

FB-1.4 (34%)

CT-1.4 (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.436 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	12	12	52	207	59	17	1	100%	4.4	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	0.7%	2.58	3.13	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	12	12	52	207	59	17	1	100%	4.4	28.5%	8.2%	20.3%	0.5%	2.58	2.07	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	130	516	147	31	3	96%	5.0	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	0.8%	2.28	2.51	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	130	516	147	31	3	96%	5.0	28.5%	6.0%	22.5%	0.6%	2.28	1.85	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	86	364	98	32	22	89%	4.8	26.2%	8.8%	17.4%	6.1%	5.00	5.36	-0.4
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	86	364	98	32	22	89%	4.8	26.9%	8.8%	18.1%	6.0%	5.00	5.25	-0.3
2022	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	28	28	149	649	154	65	38	100%	5.3	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	5.9%	5.02	5.58	-1.1
2022	24	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	28	28	149	649	154	65	38	100%	5.3	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	5.9%	5.02	5.66	-1.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	159	698	143	79	22	100%	5.3	20.5%	11.3%	9.2%	3.2%	3.91	4.53	+0.7
2023	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	159	698	143	79	22	100%	5.3	20.5%	11.3%	9.2%	3.2%	3.91	4.53	+0.7
2023	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	30	30	159	698	143	79	22	100%	5.3	20.5%	11.3%	9.2%	3.2%	3.91	4.59	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	7	7	29	133	23	10	6	100%	4.2	17.3%	7.5%	9.8%	4.5%	8.28	5.07	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	7	7	29	133	23	10	6	100%	4.2	17.3%	7.5%	9.8%	4.5%	8.28	5.07	-0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	7	7	29	133	23	10	6	100%	4.2	17.3%	7.5%	9.8%	4.5%	8.28	5.21	-0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	3	3	6	26	5	5	0	100%	1.9	19.2%	19.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.91	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	3	3	6	26	5	5	0	100%	1.9	19.2%	19.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.91	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	3	3	6	26	5	5	0	100%	1.9	19.2%	19.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.98	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			77	73	391	1713	384	180	81	95%	5.1	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	4.7%	4.79	5.21	-1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	14	0	16	64	10	5	0	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	14	0	16	64	10	5	0	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	WSH	2	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.5	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	3.00	2.13	—
2026	28	A+ RAW	WSH	3	0	3	17	3	2	0	0%	1.1	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	8.10	3.10	—
2026	28	AA RAW	WSH	3	0	3	9	0	0	0	0%	0.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	WSH	3	0	3	10	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.68	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	WSH	3	0	4	15	2	1	0	0%	1.3	13.3%	6.7%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.82	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	WSH	3	0	4	15	2	1	0	0%	1.3	13.3%	6.7%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.82	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.1%	4.54	4.81	—
ROS	28	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.1%	4.54	4.81	—
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	16	64	10	5	0	—	—	15.6%	7.8%	7.8%	0.0%	2.25	0.00	+1.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	4	17	10	5	0	—	—	59.2%	29.6%	29.6%	0.0%	9.00	1.85	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	140	590	121	66	19	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.80	4.97	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	131	555	110	64	19	100%	6.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	3.5%	5.03	5.18	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	140	591	121	66	19	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.80	4.97	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	131	553	110	64	19	100%	6.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	3.5%	5.03	5.18	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	118	662	2858	615	310	120	97%	5.4	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	4.2%	4.84	4.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	864	186	94	36	97%	5.4	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	4.2%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		138	121	627	2657	585	253	94	88%	4.5	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.5%	4.00	4.38	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	39	200	847	186	81	30	88%	4.5	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.5%	4.00	4.38	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josiah Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.1%	11.0%	3.1%	—	5.07	20.2%	8.8%	271	+0.26	—	—	—
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	76
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	73
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	73
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	73
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	69
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	69
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	345	69
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	68
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	67
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	67
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	67
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	67
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	66
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	66
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	66
Hiram Burgos R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	28	SP	4.08	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.94	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.86	3.40	384	66
Félix Peña R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	22.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.294	4.58	21.9%	13.5%	191	+0.84	2.79	615	65
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	65
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	134	21.5%	11.1%	1.55	4.81
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Scott Olsen ('10)	3.6	120	16.6%	9.2%	1.34	4.85