Jake Lee prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jake Lee P Salt Lake Bees

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%18.4%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	17	0	24	99	30	4	1	0%	1.4	20.6%	5.1%	15.6%	1.4%	2.66	2.78	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	17	0	24	99	30	4	1	0%	1.4	30.3%	4.0%	26.3%	1.0%	2.66	1.62	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	35	142	49	11	5	67%	3.9	25.7%	12.4%	13.3%	3.9%	4.11	4.65	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	35	142	49	11	5	67%	3.9	34.5%	7.7%	26.8%	3.5%	4.11	3.10	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	5	5	20	91	23	8	2	100%	4.1	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.1%	5.31	3.76	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	5	5	20	91	23	8	2	100%	4.1	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	2.2%	5.31	3.30	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	24	103	24	7	1	67%	2.0	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	1.3%	4.88	3.27	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	24	103	24	7	1	67%	2.0	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	1.0%	4.88	2.52	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	13	93	409	78	27	22	37%	2.6	15.9%	6.3%	9.7%	6.1%	6.02	5.88	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	13	93	409	78	27	22	37%	2.6	15.9%	6.3%	9.7%	6.1%	6.02	5.88	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	13	93	409	78	27	22	37%	2.6	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	5.4%	6.02	5.38	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	LAA	53	0	56	236	43	19	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	3.6%	4.82	4.91	-0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	LAA	49	0	51	216	40	19	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.8%	4.98	5.11	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	LAA	20	0	21	89	16	7	3	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	3.6%	4.82	4.91	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	LAA	27	0	28	118	22	10	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.8%	4.98	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	49	206	38	17	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	8.4%	10.0%	3.7%	4.91	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	70	33	0%	1.1	18.3%	8.4%	10.0%	3.7%	4.91	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		78	32	196	844	158	64	35	41%	2.5	18.7%	7.6%	11.1%	4.1%	5.06	4.76	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	33	200	863	161	66	36	41%	2.5	18.7%	7.6%	11.1%	4.1%	5.06	4.76	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Lee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.4%	7.5%	3.4%	—	5.01	18.3%	10.0%	107	+0.29	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	81
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	76
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	75
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	72
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	71
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	71
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	70
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	70
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	70
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	69
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	69
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	69
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	69
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	68
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	68
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	67
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	67
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	18.3%	8.0%	1.38	4.83
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28