Nick Allgeyer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Allgeyer P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%20.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

FB+0.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	23	22	118	498	104	29	10	96%	5.1	16.1%	6.7%	9.4%	2.1%	3.95	3.74	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	23	22	118	498	104	29	10	96%	5.1	20.9%	5.8%	15.1%	2.0%	3.95	3.18	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	90	412	80	52	15	74%	3.9	17.2%	13.3%	3.9%	3.7%	5.28	5.39	-0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	90	412	80	52	15	74%	3.9	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.6%	5.28	5.21	-0.3
2022	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	35	15	101	450	95	42	17	43%	2.9	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	4.4%	5.44	5.17	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	35	15	101	450	95	42	17	43%	2.9	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	3.8%	5.44	4.65	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	23	10	81	387	85	52	15	43%	3.5	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	4.8%	6.31	5.65	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	23	10	81	387	85	52	15	43%	3.5	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	4.8%	6.31	5.65	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	23	10	81	387	85	52	15	43%	3.5	22.0%	13.4%	8.5%	3.9%	6.31	5.33	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	52	217	44	24	7	100%	6.4	20.4%	11.0%	9.3%	3.4%	4.95	5.03	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	48	201	41	23	7	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	3.6%	5.08	5.20	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	44	185	37	21	7	100%	6.2	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	3.9%	5.26	5.40	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	3	3	19	80	16	9	3	100%	6.3	20.4%	11.0%	9.3%	3.4%	4.95	5.03	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	26	110	22	12	4	100%	6.5	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	3.6%	5.08	5.20	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	30	127	25	15	5	100%	6.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	3.9%	5.26	5.40	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	12	76	319	63	36	12	92%	5.8	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	3.6%	5.05	4.84	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	32	200	841	166	95	32	92%	5.7	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	3.6%	5.05	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		104	64	391	1747	308	179	64	62%	3.8	17.6%	10.3%	7.4%	3.7%	5.13	4.92	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	33	200	894	157	92	33	62%	3.8	17.6%	10.3%	7.4%	3.7%	5.13	4.92	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Allgeyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.5%	10.9%	3.2%	—	5.20	20.1%	8.8%	143	+0.32	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	69
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	65
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	61
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	60
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	59
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	59
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	59
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	58
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	58
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	58
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	57
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	57
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	56
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	56
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	55
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	55
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	454	55
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	55
Daniel Camarena L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	14.0%	5.6%	4.2%	.342	6.81	13.2%	2.4%	51	+1.87	3.76	674	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	20.2%	11.1%	1.35	5.00
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43