Conor Larkin

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	32	3.41	4.14	29.9%	15.3%	—	K 24.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.82
2025	26	AATOR	39	50	4.14	3.12	23.7%	11.8%	—	K 19.2% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.84
2026	27	MIX2 levels	37	40	9.60	5.58	19.9%	12.6%	—	K 16.4% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	56	59	5.59	5.59	16.8%	13.5%	-0.7
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTOR	17	18	5.54	5.59	17.2%	13.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBTOR	26	27	5.59	5.68	17.4%	13.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsKevin Gryboski (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Beck Wheeler (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%16.8%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	99	30	9	1	0%	1.4	26.3%	12.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.75	2.40	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	24	99	30	9	1	0%	1.4	30.3%	9.1%	21.2%	1.0%	3.75	2.27	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	46	193	57	21	2	0%	1.3	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	1.0%	4.30	3.33	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	46	193	57	21	2	0%	1.3	29.5%	10.9%	18.7%	1.0%	4.30	2.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	16.7%	7.6%	3.0%	3.41	4.82	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	16.7%	7.6%	3.0%	3.41	4.82	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	2.9%	3.41	4.14	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	1.3%	4.14	3.84	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	1.3%	4.14	3.84	—
2025	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	11.8%	0.9%	4.14	3.12	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.5%	3.9%	4.3%	9.60	5.67	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.5%	3.9%	4.3%	9.60	5.67	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.6%	7.3%	3.9%	9.60	5.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	56	0	59	249	42	34	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	13.5%	3.4%	3.3%	5.59	5.59	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	54	0	56	237	41	31	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.3%	4.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.59	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	50	0	53	223	39	30	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.6%	5.59	5.68	-0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	17	0	18	76	13	10	3	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.3%	4.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.59	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	26	0	27	114	20	15	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.6%	5.59	5.68	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	33	25	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.3%	4.1%	3.5%	5.57	5.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	112	31	0%	1.1	17.3%	13.3%	4.1%	3.5%	5.57	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		156	0	192	846	178	112	18	0%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.1%	5.16	4.16	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	0	200	881	185	117	18	0%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.1%	5.16	4.16	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conor Larkin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	—	5.63	17.3%	4.0%	109	+0.04	—	—	—
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	85
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	84
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	83
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	81
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	80
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	17.1%	13.3%	1.34	5.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*