Emilio Marquez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Emilio Marquez P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 LHP 5'8" / 170 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%22.9%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	9	0	15	56	20	1	0	0%	1.6	24.3%	2.2%	22.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.33	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	9	0	15	56	20	1	0	0%	1.6	35.7%	1.8%	33.9%	0.0%	0.61	0.58	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	50	207	67	8	3	43%	3.6	22.5%	4.6%	17.9%	2.2%	2.50	2.99	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	50	207	67	8	3	43%	3.6	32.4%	3.9%	28.5%	1.4%	2.50	1.69	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	7	77	313	101	19	11	28%	3.1	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	4.2%	3.26	4.24	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	7	77	313	101	19	11	28%	3.1	32.3%	6.1%	26.2%	3.5%	3.26	3.07	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	76	321	89	25	10	0%	2.2	22.0%	8.8%	13.3%	3.9%	3.77	4.49	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	76	321	89	25	10	0%	2.2	27.7%	7.8%	19.9%	3.1%	3.77	3.45	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	0	33	144	41	12	5	0%	1.5	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	3.7%	4.41	4.46	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	0	33	144	41	12	5	0%	1.5	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	3.7%	4.41	4.46	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	0	33	144	41	12	5	0%	1.5	28.5%	8.3%	20.1%	3.5%	4.41	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.51	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.13	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		104	13	251	1041	240	75	35	12%	2.4	23.1%	7.2%	15.8%	3.4%	3.26	3.94	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	10	200	828	191	60	28	12%	2.4	23.1%	7.2%	15.8%	3.4%	3.26	3.94	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emilio Marquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	22.9%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.51	22.7%	13.1%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	76
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	74
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	74
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	72
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	71
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	71
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	71
Giovanni Soto L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	25.6%	10.5%	3.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	128	71
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	194	71
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	71
Darin Downs L 2013 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	24.5%	6.0%	2.8%	.317	3.87	16.5%	7.3%	51	+0.57	2.83	107	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	70
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	70
David Purcey L 2010 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	22.4%	9.8%	2.1%	.245	4.29	16.7%	2.7%	59	+0.69	3.60	206	70
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	69
Luis Perez L 2012 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	22.3%	9.1%	1.7%	.299	4.00	15.2%	2.6%	66	+0.68	3.32	173	69
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	69
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	69
Hector Mercado L 2002 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	23.1%	13.3%	1.2%	.278	6.59	17.4%	3.4%	19	+3.12	3.47	125	69
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	68