Charlie Cerny prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Charlie Cerny P Stockton Ports

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%20.8%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	38	0	53	237	42	35	1	0%	1.4	13.1%	17.4%	-4.3%	0.5%	3.57	4.50	—
2019	22	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	38	0	53	237	42	35	1	0%	1.4	17.7%	14.8%	3.0%	0.4%	3.57	3.74	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	2	33	180	27	32	3	8%	1.4	9.9%	22.3%	-12.3%	2.5%	11.30	6.46	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	2	33	180	27	32	3	8%	1.4	15.0%	17.8%	-2.8%	1.7%	11.30	5.58	—
2023	26	A MLE	Stockton Ports	34	0	52	252	45	42	3	0%	1.5	13.2%	19.7%	-6.5%	1.6%	5.92	5.37	—
2023	26	A MLE	Stockton Ports	34	0	52	252	45	42	3	0%	1.5	13.2%	19.7%	-6.5%	1.6%	5.92	5.37	—
2023	26	A RAW	Stockton Ports	34	0	52	252	45	42	3	0%	1.5	17.9%	16.7%	1.2%	1.2%	5.92	4.55	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	3.0%	5.14	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	OAK	32	0	33	141	29	20	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.9%	6.8%	3.2%	5.16	5.23	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.9%	6.8%	3.2%	5.16	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.9%	6.8%	3.2%	5.16	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	120	20	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.9%	6.8%	3.2%	5.16	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		96	2	137	669	82	131	10	2%	1.4	12.3%	19.6%	-7.3%	1.5%	6.29	5.36	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	3	200	974	120	191	14	2%	1.4	12.3%	19.6%	-7.3%	1.5%	6.29	5.36	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlie Cerny (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	20.8%	14.1%	3.0%	—	5.23	20.8%	6.8%	33	+0.09	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	90
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	87
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	80
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	78
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	76
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	76
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	76
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	75
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	75
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	75
Kyle Snyder R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	16.9%	12.4%	2.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	236	74
Matt Lindstrom R 2009 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	17.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.320	3.16	17.7%	11.7%	154	-0.96	2.40	443	74
Cristofer Ogando R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.6%	11.6%	3.8%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	179	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	20.8%	14.0%	1.19	5.15
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35