Conor Dryer — OGILVIE

Conor Dryer P FCL Rays

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%23.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	7	0	9	34	10	0	1	0%	1.3	29.4%	0.0%	29.4%	2.9%	2.00	2.23	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	7	0	9	34	10	0	1	0%	1.3	29.4%	0.0%	29.4%	2.9%	2.00	2.32	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	29	3	64	272	71	16	9	10%	2.2	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	4.1%	3.80	4.49	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	29	3	64	272	71	16	9	10%	2.2	26.1%	5.9%	20.2%	3.3%	3.80	3.46	—
2024	25	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	13	1	17	68	18	8	0	8%	1.3	18.0%	14.7%	3.3%	0.0%	2.70	3.44	—
2024	25	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	13	1	17	68	18	8	0	8%	1.3	18.0%	14.7%	3.3%	0.0%	2.70	3.44	—
2024	25	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	13	1	17	68	18	8	0	8%	1.3	26.5%	11.8%	14.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	19	9	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.58	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.20	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	100	33	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		49	4	90	374	77	28	12	8%	1.8	20.6%	7.6%	13.0%	3.2%	3.41	4.09	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	9	200	834	172	63	27	8%	1.8	20.6%	7.6%	13.0%	3.2%	3.41	4.09	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conor Dryer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	23.2%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.58	23.0%	12.6%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	83
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	82
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	81
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	79
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	79
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	77
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	77
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77