Valente Bellozo

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 221 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	27	26	135	4.14	4.77	19.9%	7.5%	0.2	K 17.8% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.12
2025	25	MIX2 levels	37	10	101	4.02	4.48	17.1%	7.0%	0.1	K 16.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.61
2026	26	MIX2 levels	33	20	124	8.27	7.01	12.1%	9.7%	-2.9	K 10.0% · BB 8.7% · FIP 6.66
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	12	12	78	5.53	6.14	11.3%	8.6%	-1.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCOL	5	5	32	5.95	6.22	11.2%	8.8%	-0.4
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCOL	7	7	43	6.21	6.38	10.6%	9.0%	-0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command35FB velo30

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Aldo Montes (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA5.53

FIP6.14

K%11.3%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%2.6%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

SL (21%)

SI (11%)

CU (5%)

CH (18%)

CT-1.4 (24%)

FB-1.9 (32%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros	14	8	52	196	42	16	0	57%	3.7	14.6%	10.2%	4.4%	0.0%	1.74	3.16	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros	14	8	52	196	42	16	0	57%	3.7	21.4%	8.2%	13.3%	0.0%	1.74	2.40	—
2019	19	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	3	1	13	53	11	2	0	33%	4.3	15.4%	4.5%	10.9%	0.0%	2.77	2.37	—
2019	19	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	3	1	13	53	11	2	0	33%	4.3	20.8%	3.8%	17.0%	0.0%	2.77	1.87	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	49	195	54	18	1	67%	3.2	19.5%	12.3%	7.2%	0.8%	2.59	3.47	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	49	195	54	18	1	67%	3.2	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	0.5%	2.59	2.26	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	16	110	473	106	32	23	62%	4.2	17.4%	7.7%	9.6%	4.9%	5.55	5.32	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	16	110	473	106	32	23	62%	4.2	22.4%	6.8%	15.6%	4.9%	5.55	4.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	135	583	116	44	25	96%	5.0	17.8%	7.4%	10.5%	4.7%	4.14	5.12	-0.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	135	583	116	44	25	96%	5.0	17.8%	7.4%	10.5%	4.7%	4.14	5.12	-0.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	135	583	116	44	25	96%	5.0	19.9%	7.5%	12.3%	4.3%	4.14	4.77	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	101	426	73	30	15	27%	2.7	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	3.7%	4.02	4.61	-0.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	101	426	73	30	15	27%	2.7	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	3.7%	4.02	4.61	-0.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	10	101	426	73	30	15	27%	2.7	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	3.5%	4.02	4.48	+0.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	20	124	596	72	58	35	61%	3.8	10.0%	8.7%	1.3%	6.0%	8.27	6.66	-2.4
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	20	124	596	72	58	35	61%	3.8	10.0%	8.7%	1.3%	6.0%	8.27	6.66	-2.4
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	20	124	596	72	58	35	61%	3.8	12.1%	9.7%	2.3%	5.9%	8.27	7.01	-2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	19	161	691	106	48	35	40%	3.3	15.3%	6.9%	8.4%	5.1%	4.43	5.51	-1.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	12	12	78	329	37	28	15	100%	6.5	11.3%	8.6%	2.6%	4.6%	5.53	6.14	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	76	320	36	28	15	100%	6.3	11.2%	8.8%	2.4%	4.7%	5.95	6.22	-1.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	72	306	32	28	15	100%	6.6	10.6%	9.0%	1.5%	4.8%	6.21	6.38	-1.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	68	288	29	27	14	100%	6.2	10.0%	9.3%	0.7%	5.0%	6.43	6.58	-1.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	32	135	15	12	6	100%	6.4	11.2%	8.8%	2.4%	4.7%	5.95	6.22	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	43	182	19	16	9	100%	6.1	10.6%	9.0%	1.5%	4.8%	6.21	6.38	-0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	48	203	20	19	10	100%	6.0	10.0%	9.3%	0.7%	5.0%	6.43	6.58	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	38	284	1210	161	95	60	57%	4.2	13.3%	7.9%	5.4%	5.0%	5.21	5.71	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	27	200	853	114	67	42	57%	4.2	13.3%	7.9%	5.4%	5.0%	5.21	5.71	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		155	91	583	2522	391	207	104	59%	3.8	15.5%	8.2%	7.3%	4.1%	4.89	5.10	-4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	31	200	865	134	71	36	59%	3.8	15.5%	8.2%	7.3%	4.1%	4.89	5.10	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Valente Bellozo (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.14	11.3%	8.6%	4.6%	—	6.39	10.6%	1.6%	216	+0.25	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	73
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	67
Brian Powell R 2000 · 6.57 FIP	26	SP-	6.57	10.0%	9.3%	5.7%	.248	5.53	11.8%	3.5%	58	-1.04	4.45	212	66
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	66
Ryan Drese R 2003 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP-	5.39	11.7%	10.3%	3.6%	.319	3.99	9.7%	3.3%	337	-1.40	3.58	557	65
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	64
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	64
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	64
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	64
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	63
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	63
Tanner Scheppers R 2014 · 5.80 FIP	27	SP-	5.80	15.3%	9.0%	5.2%	.321	4.61	16.7%	7.7%	101	-1.19	3.34	233	62
Ryan Glynn R 2001 · 5.72 FIP	26	SP-	5.72	6.8%	11.4%	3.2%	.302	5.23	15.7%	7.8%	20	-0.49	5.23	226	61
Jake Walkinshaw R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	27	SP-	6.54	12.7%	9.7%	6.0%	.288	3.88	15.8%	6.2%	121	-2.66	2.84	310	61
Josh Banks R 2009 · 6.01 FIP	27	SP-	6.01	9.0%	3.0%	6.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	108	61
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	61
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	61
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	61
Myles Jaye R 2018 · 5.62 FIP	26	SP-	5.62	9.5%	8.1%	4.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	525	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	76	12.4%	8.4%	1.89	5.45
Carlos Castillo ('01)	1.1	70	14.2%	9.0%	1.58	5.04
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
George Spencer ('50-'60, -0 WAR*)	1.3	84	14.4%*	9.3%*	1.96*	4.41*
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Ken MacKenzie ('60-'65, -3 WAR*)	1.0	69	20.1%*	7.3%*	1.83*	5.50*