Florencio Serrano

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	25	0	56	5.17	4.64	18.9%	8.4%	—	K 14.0% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.29
2024	24	MIX3 levels	27	3	52	5.75	4.98	17.6%	14.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.34
2025	25	MIX3 levels	17	3	37	4.82	4.65	15.3%	6.1%	—	K 12.5% · BB 6.6% · FIP 5.51
2027PROJ	27	MLBTEX	21	0	22	4.93	4.93	16.5%	8.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBTEX	8	0	8	4.92	4.95	17.1%	8.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsTyler Yates (age 26) · Jorge Campillo (age 28) · Donovan Hand (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%16.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	7	3	27	121	24	12	5	43%	3.9	13.5%	12.4%	1.1%	5.8%	4.67	6.71	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	7	3	27	121	24	12	5	43%	3.9	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	4.1%	4.67	5.06	—
2021	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	9	5	28	111	29	8	2	56%	3.1	19.3%	8.5%	10.8%	2.4%	1.27	3.84	—
2021	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	9	5	28	111	29	8	2	56%	3.1	26.1%	7.2%	18.9%	1.8%	1.27	2.82	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	32	129	23	12	2	23%	2.4	12.8%	10.2%	2.6%	2.7%	3.41	4.82	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	3	32	129	23	12	2	23%	2.4	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	1.6%	3.41	3.61	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	56	249	47	21	9	0%	2.2	14.0%	9.3%	4.7%	4.0%	5.17	5.29	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	56	249	47	21	9	0%	2.2	18.9%	8.4%	10.4%	3.6%	5.17	4.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	3	52	244	43	35	6	11%	1.9	15.0%	12.4%	2.6%	1.7%	5.75	4.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	3	52	244	43	35	6	11%	1.9	15.0%	12.4%	2.6%	1.7%	5.75	4.34	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	3	52	244	43	35	6	11%	1.9	17.6%	14.3%	3.3%	2.5%	5.75	4.98	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	37	163	25	10	6	18%	2.2	12.5%	6.6%	5.9%	4.8%	4.82	5.51	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	37	163	25	10	6	18%	2.2	12.5%	6.6%	5.9%	4.8%	4.82	5.51	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	3	37	163	25	10	6	18%	2.2	15.3%	6.1%	9.2%	3.7%	4.82	4.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	21	0	22	93	15	8	3	0%	1.0	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	3.2%	4.93	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	20	0	22	91	15	8	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.92	4.95	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.92	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.92	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	74	25	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.92	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		98	17	232	1017	146	102	35	17%	2.4	14.4%	10.0%	4.4%	3.5%	4.47	5.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	15	200	878	126	88	30	17%	2.4	14.4%	10.0%	4.4%	3.5%	4.47	5.05	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Florencio Serrano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	16.5%	8.7%	3.2%	—	4.95	17.1%	8.2%	22	+0.02	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	84
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	82
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	80
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	80
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	78
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	77
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	77
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	77
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	76
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	76
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	76
Scot Shields R 2002 · 4.27 FIP	27	SU	4.27	16.0%	10.6%	2.1%	.201	3.01	22.1%	15.0%	345	-1.26	2.77	686	76
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	76
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	76
Scott Burke R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	25	SU	5.27	14.9%	8.2%	4.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	76