Hayden Deal
P
Mississippi Braves
Age 31
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 119
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.7%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 31 | 136 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 3.23 | 3.56 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 31 | 136 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 14.0% | 0.7% | 3.23 | 2.55 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Rome Braves | 27 | 5 | 79 | 319 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 19% | 2.9 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 13.1% | 1.6% | 2.17 | 3.13 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Rome Braves | 27 | 5 | 79 | 319 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 19% | 2.9 | 25.7% | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.9% | 2.17 | 2.12 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | 23 | 22 | 119 | 499 | 99 | 32 | 6 | 96% | 5.2 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 3.24 | 3.73 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | 23 | 22 | 119 | 499 | 99 | 32 | 6 | 96% | 5.2 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 13.4% | 1.2% | 3.24 | 2.90 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 23 | 17 | 88 | 375 | 72 | 33 | 5 | 74% | 3.8 | 15.6% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 3.77 | 4.23 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 23 | 17 | 88 | 375 | 72 | 33 | 5 | 74% | 3.8 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 3.77 | 3.33 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 31 | 4 | 59 | 256 | 53 | 26 | 2 | 13% | 1.9 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 3.70 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 31 | 4 | 59 | 256 | 53 | 26 | 2 | 13% | 1.9 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 0.8% | 4.12 | 3.07 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 29 | 5 | 48 | 212 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 17% | 1.7 | 15.7% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 3.56 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 29 | 5 | 48 | 212 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 17% | 1.7 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 0.9% | 3.56 | 3.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 0 | 27 | 112 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 78 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 147 | 53 | 424 | 1797 | 289 | 155 | 31 | 36% | 2.9 | 16.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 3.31 | 3.77 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 25 | 200 | 848 | 136 | 73 | 15 | 36% | 2.9 | 16.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 3.31 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Deal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.60 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 25 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 74 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 73 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 70 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 69 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 153 | 66 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.09 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 183 | 66 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 64 |
| Travis Blackley L 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 64 |
| Josh Outman L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 61 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.80 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | .307 | 4.40 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 40 | -0.40 | 4.40 | 713 | 61 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.87 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .366 | 6.95 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +3.08 | 3.87 | 341 | 61 |
| Justin Marks L 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 60 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 60 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.53 | 14.1% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .333 | 5.27 | 10.8% | 3.0% | 93 | +1.74 | 3.53 | 282 | 60 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.56 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .322 | 6.02 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 85 | +1.46 | 4.01 | 642 | 60 |
| Andy Otero L 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.38 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 200 | 59 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 59 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 58 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 58 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 1.19 | 4.44 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |