Chase Watkins

P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	34	0	55	3.46	3.32	24.2%	8.4%	—	K 18.0% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.52
2025	25	MIX3 levels	32	2	71	2.65	2.72	23.4%	6.5%	—	K 18.0% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.30
2026	26	AACWS	12	0	19	7.11	4.47	21.6%	4.5%	—	K 17.5% · BB 5.0% · FIP 5.25
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	57	0	60	4.55	4.55	17.1%	6.5%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCWS	21	0	22	4.57	4.61	17.6%	7.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCWS	30	0	31	4.65	4.72	17.8%	7.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJimmy Reyes (age 27) · Ozzie Mendez (age 27) · Erasmo Ramirez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 120

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%17.1%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	5	0	11	47	20	2	0	0%	2.3	42.6%	4.3%	38.3%	0.0%	1.59	0.05	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	5	0	11	47	20	2	0	0%	2.3	42.6%	4.3%	38.3%	0.0%	1.59	0.10	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	25	2	57	251	70	25	3	8%	2.3	20.6%	11.8%	8.9%	1.6%	3.47	3.75	—
2022	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	25	2	57	251	70	25	3	8%	2.3	27.9%	10.0%	17.9%	1.2%	3.47	2.64	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	0	33	149	32	15	8	0%	1.6	16.5%	11.6%	5.0%	5.6%	5.23	6.25	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	21	0	33	149	32	15	8	0%	1.6	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	5.4%	5.23	5.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	227	55	19	5	0%	1.6	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	3.1%	3.46	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	227	55	19	5	0%	1.6	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	3.1%	3.46	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	55	227	55	19	5	0%	1.6	24.2%	8.4%	15.9%	2.2%	3.46	3.32	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	71	291	68	19	4	6%	2.2	18.0%	6.4%	11.6%	1.7%	2.65	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	71	291	68	19	4	6%	2.2	18.0%	6.4%	11.6%	1.7%	2.65	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	2	71	291	68	19	4	6%	2.2	23.4%	6.5%	16.8%	1.4%	2.65	2.72	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	12	0	19	88	19	4	4	0%	1.6	17.5%	5.0%	12.5%	5.5%	7.11	5.25	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	12	0	19	88	19	4	4	0%	1.6	17.5%	5.0%	12.5%	5.5%	7.11	5.25	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	12	0	19	88	19	4	4	0%	1.6	21.6%	4.5%	17.0%	4.5%	7.11	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	57	0	60	253	43	17	8	0%	1.1	17.1%	6.5%	10.5%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	55	0	58	244	43	17	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.57	4.61	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	52	0	55	233	41	17	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.3%	10.4%	3.3%	4.65	4.72	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	21	0	22	93	16	6	3	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.57	4.61	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	31	131	23	10	4	0%	1.0	17.8%	7.3%	10.4%	3.3%	4.65	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	39	16	7	0%	1.0	17.7%	7.2%	10.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.29	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	61	27	0%	1.1	17.7%	7.2%	10.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		129	4	246	1053	205	94	29	3%	1.9	19.5%	8.9%	10.5%	2.8%	3.66	4.11	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	3	200	856	167	76	24	3%	1.9	19.5%	8.9%	10.5%	2.8%	3.66	4.11	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Watkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	17.1%	6.5%	3.1%	—	4.66	17.7%	10.5%	113	+0.11	—	—	—
Jimmy Reyes L 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SU	3.82	14.6%	6.2%	2.1%	.313	4.92	13.8%	5.8%	66	+1.10	3.02	200	86
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	85
Erasmo Ramirez L 2003 · 3.59 FIP	27	SU	3.59	14.0%	4.5%	2.0%	.264	4.43	11.1%	7.4%	59	+0.84	3.59	108	84
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	82
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	81
Duane Below L 2012 · 4.16 FIP	26	SU	4.16	15.3%	4.2%	3.3%	.295	3.63	12.5%	8.8%	49	-0.53	3.63	265	80
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	79
Diego Barrera L 2024 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	17.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.310	4.55	17.9%	7.4%	89	+0.86	3.66	155	79
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	79
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	79
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	79
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	79
Everett Teaford L 2011 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	16.0%	8.0%	4.9%	.224	5.47	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.00	4.42	208	79
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	79
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	79
Ivan Pelaez L 2021 · 4.66 FIP	27	SU	4.66	16.9%	5.1%	4.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	210	79
Billy Traber L 2007 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	14.8%	5.5%	2.2%	.326	4.95	13.8%	6.3%	17	+1.20	3.75	211	78
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	78
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	78
Scott Alexander L 2016 · 3.42 FIP	27	SU	3.42	17.3%	7.7%	1.5%	.342	3.38	19.8%	10.6%	152	-0.04	2.90	427	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	17.5%	6.9%	1.22	4.59
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Bobby Tiefenauer ('52-'68, 0 WAR*)	1.6	63	20.4%*	6.7%*	1.10*	4.53*