Ian Villers

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'7" / 240 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	ASF	3	0	3	3.00	5.77	12.5%	25.0%	—	K 12.5% · BB 25.0% · FIP 5.21
2024	23	MIX2 levels	30	2	48	5.29	3.60	18.5%	10.0%	—	K 13.2% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.55
2025	24	MIX2 levels	38	0	59	3.79	3.69	19.8%	9.3%	—	K 15.6% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	38	0	40	4.91	4.91	17.4%	10.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSF	19	0	20	4.87	4.89	18.0%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSF	29	0	30	4.89	4.93	18.3%	10.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFrancisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Jacob Bosiokovic (age 25) · Greg Burke (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%17.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	9	0	9	34	12	0	1	0%	1.0	35.3%	0.0%	35.3%	2.9%	2.08	1.73	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	9	0	9	34	12	0	1	0%	1.0	35.3%	0.0%	35.3%	2.9%	2.08	1.83	—
2022	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	3	0	3	16	2	4	0	0%	1.0	12.5%	25.0%	-12.5%	0.0%	3.00	5.21	—
2022	21	A RAW	San Jose Giants	3	0	3	16	2	4	0	0%	1.0	12.5%	25.0%	-12.5%	0.0%	3.00	5.77	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	48	211	39	21	3	7%	1.6	13.2%	11.9%	1.3%	1.9%	5.29	4.55	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	48	211	39	21	3	7%	1.6	13.2%	11.9%	1.3%	1.9%	5.29	4.55	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	48	211	39	21	3	7%	1.6	18.5%	10.0%	8.5%	1.4%	5.29	3.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	59	258	51	24	5	0%	1.6	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.1%	3.79	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	59	258	51	24	5	0%	1.6	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.1%	3.79	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	59	258	51	24	5	0%	1.6	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	1.9%	3.79	3.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	38	0	40	169	29	18	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.4%	7.0%	2.9%	4.91	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	50	0	53	222	40	23	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.89	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	49	0	51	215	39	22	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	3.1%	4.89	4.93	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	19	0	20	84	15	9	2	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.89	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	29	0	30	127	23	13	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	3.1%	4.89	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	50	212	38	22	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	10.4%	7.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	88	24	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.4%	7.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		80	2	119	519	82	56	10	2%	1.5	15.8%	10.8%	5.1%	2.0%	4.25	4.23	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	3	200	875	139	94	18	2%	1.5	15.8%	10.8%	5.1%	2.0%	4.25	4.23	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Villers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	17.4%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.91	18.1%	7.8%	104	-0.00	—	—	—
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	91
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	90
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	88
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	87
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	87
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	87
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	87
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	87
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	87
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	87
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	87
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	86
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	86
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	86
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	86
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	86
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	86
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	86
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	17.9%	10.4%	1.15	4.89
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*