Matt Russell
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.8%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 9 | 1 | 18 | 77 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 21.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 3.06 | 2.83 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 18 | 16 | 82 | 378 | 69 | 35 | 5 | 14.1% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 4.74 | 4.26 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 39 | 0 | 46 | 212 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 14.9% | 11.9% | 1.4% | 5.24 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 25 | 0 | 32 | 149 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 17.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 17 | 178 | 816 | 128 | 90 | 15 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 4.65 | 4.22 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 19 | 200 | 917 | 144 | 101 | 17 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 4.65 | 4.22 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Russell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.55 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 59 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 86 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 85 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 83 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 82 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 82 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 82 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 82 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 82 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .340 | 3.98 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 94 | +0.38 | 2.68 | 177 | 81 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .417 | 2.29 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 59 | -2.01 | 1.94 | 131 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 80 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.41 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 224 | 80 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 80 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 80 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.