Matt Russell — OGILVIE

Matt Russell P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%21.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	9	1	18	77	22	3	1	11%	2.0	21.1%	4.6%	16.5%	1.7%	3.06	2.83	—
2021	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	9	1	18	77	22	3	1	11%	2.0	28.6%	3.9%	24.7%	1.3%	3.06	1.85	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	18	16	82	378	69	35	5	89%	4.5	14.1%	10.6%	3.4%	1.9%	4.74	4.29	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	18	16	82	378	69	35	5	89%	4.5	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	1.3%	4.74	3.49	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	39	0	46	212	41	22	2	0%	1.2	14.9%	11.9%	3.0%	1.4%	5.24	4.11	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	39	0	46	212	41	22	2	0%	1.2	19.3%	10.4%	9.0%	0.9%	5.24	3.32	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	0	32	149	33	19	4	0%	1.3	17.9%	14.0%	3.9%	2.8%	4.45	4.92	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	0	32	149	33	19	4	0%	1.3	17.9%	14.0%	3.9%	2.8%	4.45	4.92	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	25	0	32	149	33	19	4	0%	1.3	22.1%	12.8%	9.4%	2.7%	4.45	4.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PHI	18	0	19	80	17	9	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.76	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		91	17	178	816	128	90	16	19%	2.0	15.7%	11.0%	4.6%	1.9%	4.65	4.22	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	19	200	917	143	101	17	19%	2.0	15.7%	11.0%	4.6%	1.9%	4.65	4.22	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Russell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.7%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.76	21.6%	10.7%	20	+0.09	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	76
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	76
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	76
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	75
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	75
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	75
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	75
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	75