Seth Nordlin
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 213 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%21.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 12 | 0 | 22 | 82 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.2% | 7.6% | 20.6% | 0.0% | 2.49 | 1.68 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 12 | 0 | 22 | 82 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 41.5% | 6.1% | 35.4% | 0.0% | 2.49 | 0.65 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 11 | 83 | 361 | 87 | 32 | 11 | 55% | 4.2 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 5.20 | 5.57 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 11 | 83 | 361 | 87 | 32 | 11 | 55% | 4.2 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 5.20 | 3.88 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 6 | 77 | 325 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 19% | 2.4 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 3.61 | 4.56 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 6 | 77 | 325 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 19% | 2.4 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 96 | 432 | 68 | 27 | 13 | 50% | 3.0 | 12.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 5.61 | 4.87 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 96 | 432 | 68 | 27 | 13 | 50% | 3.0 | 15.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 5.61 | 4.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 60 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 53 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.30 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 79 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 33 | 278 | 1200 | 200 | 99 | 45 | 34% | 2.9 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.78 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 24 | 200 | 862 | 144 | 71 | 32 | 34% | 2.9 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Nordlin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.66 | 21.2% | 12.0% | 124 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 83 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 82 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 81 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 78 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 77 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 76 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 76 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 76 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 75 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 75 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .299 | 4.94 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 323 | +0.92 | 3.19 | 678 | 75 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 74 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 74 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 74 |
| Sam Lewis R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 73 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 73 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 73 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 1.24 | 4.55 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |