Matt Turner

P Syracuse Mets

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	18	0	35	5.91	4.19	19.9%	13.0%	—	K 15.6% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.18
2025	25	MIX2 levels	41	4	56	5.79	3.30	22.5%	11.5%	—	K 17.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.79
2026	26	MIX2 levels	44	1	48	4.15	4.69	23.0%	11.1%	—	K 19.4% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYM	57	0	60	5.17	5.17	17.1%	11.3%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBNYM	24	0	25	5.13	5.17	17.6%	11.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBNYM	31	0	33	5.17	5.23	17.8%	11.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJuan Grullon (age 26) · Stephen Peterson (age 27) · Greg Nappo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%17.1%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	10	3	24	117	22	8	1	30%	2.4	12.8%	8.5%	4.2%	1.2%	6.75	3.76	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	10	3	24	117	22	8	1	30%	2.4	18.8%	6.8%	12.0%	0.9%	6.75	2.81	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	11	3	36	150	36	8	1	27%	3.3	16.3%	6.7%	9.7%	0.9%	3.75	3.08	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 1	11	3	36	150	36	8	1	27%	3.3	24.0%	5.3%	18.7%	0.7%	3.75	2.13	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	9	9	43	188	29	14	3	100%	4.7	11.4%	8.8%	2.6%	2.1%	2.74	4.40	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lake County Captains	9	9	43	188	29	14	3	100%	4.7	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	1.6%	2.74	3.64	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	20	86	20	8	4	100%	2.9	12.8%	11.2%	1.7%	5.7%	3.15	6.55	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	20	86	20	8	4	100%	2.9	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	4.7%	3.15	4.90	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	28	0	39	195	30	28	7	0%	1.4	11.8%	16.5%	-4.7%	4.0%	6.69	6.36	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	28	0	39	195	30	28	7	0%	1.4	15.4%	14.4%	1.0%	3.6%	6.69	6.05	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	35	161	32	21	3	0%	1.9	15.6%	14.7%	0.9%	1.0%	5.91	4.18	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	35	161	32	21	3	0%	1.9	19.9%	13.0%	6.8%	1.9%	5.91	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	56	262	59	30	3	10%	1.4	17.0%	10.1%	6.8%	1.5%	5.79	3.79	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	56	262	59	30	3	10%	1.4	17.0%	10.1%	6.8%	1.5%	5.79	3.79	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	4	56	262	59	30	3	10%	1.4	22.5%	11.5%	11.1%	1.1%	5.79	3.30	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	48	217	50	24	8	2%	1.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	4.1%	4.15	5.06	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	48	217	50	24	8	2%	1.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	4.1%	4.15	5.06	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	48	217	50	24	8	2%	1.1	23.0%	11.1%	12.0%	3.7%	4.15	4.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYM	57	0	60	253	43	29	8	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	3.1%	5.17	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	55	0	58	244	43	27	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	3.2%	5.13	5.17	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	55	233	41	26	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.3%	5.17	5.23	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	24	0	25	106	19	12	3	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	3.2%	5.13	5.17	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYM	31	0	33	139	25	16	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.3%	5.17	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	241	43	27	8	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.3%	6.4%	3.3%	5.15	4.82	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	95	28	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.3%	6.4%	3.3%	5.15	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		168	27	300	1376	207	151	34	16%	1.8	15.0%	11.0%	4.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.58	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	18	200	916	138	101	23	16%	1.8	15.0%	11.0%	4.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.58	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Turner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	17.1%	11.3%	3.1%	—	5.20	17.7%	6.4%	113	+0.03	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	84
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	83
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	82
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	82
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	80
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	80
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	80
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	80
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	80
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	79
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	79
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	427	79
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	78
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	78
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	78
Everett Teaford L 2011 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	16.0%	8.0%	4.9%	.224	5.47	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.00	4.42	208	78
Juan Martinez L 2019 · 4.81 FIP	27	SU	4.81	14.4%	9.2%	3.2%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	273	78
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	78
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	17.5%	11.3%	1.24	5.16
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*