JP Sears

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 31 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBOakland Athle…	32	32	181	4.38	4.41	18.1%	6.5%	1.0
2025	29	MIX2 levels	31	31	149	4.88	5.04	20.7%	6.5%	-0.2	K 20.4% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.99
2026	30	MIX2 levels	31	26	118	6.71	4.32	20.7%	9.1%	0.8	K 18.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	31	MLBSD	16	16	94	4.80	4.98	18.4%	7.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ	32	MLBSD	14	14	87	5.06	5.24	17.6%	7.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ	33	MLBSD	13	13	80	5.17	5.25	18.8%	7.4%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo29

xwOBA vs22

K%18

Whiff%17

CompsJohn Bale (age 29) · Kaz Ishii (age 31) · Brandon Mann (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.80

FIP4.98

K%18.4%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP94

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

SI (6%)

CU (4%)

SL-1.4 (37%)

CH-5.5 (15%)

FB-12.6 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	10	0	17	67	29	8	0	0%	1.7	32.0%	14.1%	17.9%	0.0%	0.00	2.18	—
2017	21	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	10	0	17	67	29	8	0	0%	1.7	43.3%	11.9%	31.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2018	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	11	10	54	215	54	11	7	91%	4.9	18.6%	6.0%	12.5%	5.2%	2.67	5.16	—
2018	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	11	10	54	215	54	11	7	91%	4.9	25.1%	5.1%	20.0%	3.3%	2.67	3.40	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Tarpons	13	6	49	206	45	16	3	46%	3.7	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	1.9%	4.07	3.85	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Tampa Tarpons	13	6	49	206	45	16	3	46%	3.7	21.8%	7.8%	14.1%	1.5%	4.07	3.04	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	104	415	136	29	11	72%	4.2	27.6%	7.6%	20.1%	2.8%	3.46	3.26	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	104	415	136	29	11	72%	4.2	32.8%	7.0%	25.8%	2.7%	3.46	2.70	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	118	468	111	29	11	72%	4.1	22.2%	6.3%	15.9%	2.5%	2.98	3.41	+2.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	118	468	111	29	11	72%	4.1	23.7%	6.2%	17.5%	2.4%	2.98	3.17	+2.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	172	735	161	51	34	100%	5.4	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	5.1%	4.54	4.92	-0.0
2023	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	32	32	172	735	161	51	34	100%	5.4	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	4.6%	4.54	4.68	+0.4
2024	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	181	758	137	49	28	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.5%	11.6%	4.1%	4.38	4.62	+0.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	181	758	137	49	28	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.5%	11.6%	4.1%	4.38	4.62	+0.6
2024	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	32	32	181	758	137	49	28	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.5%	11.6%	3.7%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	149	642	133	42	33	100%	4.8	20.4%	6.4%	13.9%	5.1%	4.88	4.99	-0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	149	642	133	42	33	100%	4.8	20.4%	6.4%	13.9%	5.1%	4.88	4.99	-0.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	149	642	133	42	33	100%	4.8	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	5.1%	4.88	5.04	-0.2
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	118	540	112	49	17	84%	3.8	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.3%	6.71	4.42	+0.7
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	118	540	112	49	17	84%	3.8	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.3%	6.71	4.42	+0.7
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	118	540	112	49	17	84%	3.8	20.7%	9.1%	11.7%	3.1%	6.71	4.32	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			116	108	591	2507	491	169	106	93%	5.1	19.6%	6.7%	12.8%	4.2%	4.54	4.63	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	SD	16	16	94	397	73	29	15	100%	5.9	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	3.9%	4.80	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	87	366	65	28	15	100%	6.2	17.6%	7.8%	9.9%	4.1%	5.06	5.24	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	80	336	63	25	15	100%	6.1	18.8%	7.4%	11.3%	4.4%	5.17	5.25	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	87	367	65	29	15	100%	6.2	17.6%	7.8%	9.9%	4.1%	5.06	5.24	-0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	80	338	63	25	15	100%	6.2	18.8%	7.4%	11.3%	4.4%	5.17	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	136	758	3209	619	222	136	94%	5.3	19.3%	6.9%	12.3%	4.2%	4.66	4.67	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	847	163	59	36	94%	5.3	19.3%	6.9%	12.3%	4.2%	4.66	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		214	176	962	4046	843	288	157	82%	4.5	20.8%	7.1%	13.7%	3.9%	4.31	4.38	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	841	175	60	33	82%	4.5	20.8%	7.1%	13.7%	3.9%	4.31	4.38	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JP Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	18.4%	7.4%	3.9%	—	5.24	18.2%	10.6%	166	+0.26	—	—	—
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	57
Kaz Ishii L 2005 · 5.23 FIP	31	SP	5.23	13.3%	11.5%	3.3%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	564	56
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	55
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	51
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	51
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	50
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	49
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	49
Wei-Yin Chen L 2016 · 4.51 FIP	31	SP	4.51	19.2%	4.6%	4.5%	.299	4.37	19.6%	13.1%	235	-0.14	3.63	1,065	48
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	48
Yusei Kikuchi L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	31	SP-	5.19	27.3%	12.8%	5.1%	.281	3.78	25.4%	18.1%	522	-1.41	3.23	1,056	48
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	47
Joey Lucchesi L 2024 · 4.73 FIP	31	SP-	4.73	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.293	3.65	22.6%	15.8%	102	-1.08	3.12	817	47
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	47
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	47
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	47
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	45
Brad Mills L 2016 · 6.13 FIP	31	SP	6.13	14.4%	11.8%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	243	45
Randy Keisler L 2007 · 5.51 FIP	31	SP-	5.51	6.5%	6.5%	3.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	135	44
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	106	19.2%	7.1%	1.62	4.68
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Roy Smith ('84-'91, 3 WAR*)	3.1	103	16.2%*	7.3%*	1.49*	4.73*
Larry Jaster ('65-'72, 2 WAR*)	3.0	100	15.8%*	7.9%*	1.61*	4.57*
Tiny Chaplin ('28-'36, 1 WAR*)	1.9	93	17.2%*	7.2%*	1.59*	4.53*
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15
Sam Gaviglio ('20)	1.5	99	19.1%	7.2%	1.67	4.88