Max Lazar — OGILVIE

Max Lazar P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.32

FIP4.27

K%18.1%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p1520.3%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

CT+0.6 (15%)

CU (26%)

FB-0.8 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	7	1	14	56	14	1	2	14%	2.0	17.0%	2.2%	14.8%	5.0%	5.93	4.69	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	7	1	14	56	14	1	2	14%	2.0	25.0%	1.8%	23.2%	3.6%	5.93	3.17	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	14	14	68	295	55	15	7	100%	4.9	12.7%	6.4%	6.3%	3.3%	4.37	4.66	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Helena Brewers	14	14	68	295	55	15	7	100%	4.9	18.6%	5.1%	13.6%	2.4%	4.37	3.48	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	13	85	338	119	15	5	59%	3.9	25.4%	5.6%	19.9%	2.0%	2.33	2.76	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	13	85	338	119	15	5	59%	3.9	35.2%	4.4%	30.8%	1.5%	2.33	1.59	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	9	40	170	26	12	6	60%	2.7	10.5%	9.1%	1.4%	5.1%	3.83	6.15	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	9	40	170	26	12	6	60%	2.7	15.3%	7.1%	8.2%	3.5%	3.83	4.65	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	69	288	73	19	5	3%	2.1	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	2.0%	3.26	3.47	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	69	288	73	19	5	3%	2.1	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	2.0%	3.26	3.47	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	69	288	73	19	5	3%	2.1	25.3%	6.6%	18.8%	1.7%	3.26	2.75	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	57	222	65	12	3	0%	1.2	21.6%	5.9%	15.7%	1.6%	2.53	2.89	+1.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	57	222	65	12	3	0%	1.2	21.6%	5.9%	15.7%	1.6%	2.53	2.89	+1.1
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	57	222	65	12	3	0%	1.2	29.3%	5.4%	23.9%	1.4%	2.53	2.14	+1.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	257	49	18	10	0%	1.2	17.5%	6.8%	10.8%	3.9%	4.31	4.61	-0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	257	49	18	10	0%	1.2	17.5%	6.8%	10.8%	3.9%	4.31	4.61	-0.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	63	257	49	18	10	0%	1.2	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.31	4.47	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	0	63	259	40	17	12	0%	1.2	15.4%	6.6%	8.9%	4.6%	4.86	5.12	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	38	1	46	204	49	19	7	3%	1.2	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.50	3.98	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	38	1	46	204	49	19	7	3%	1.2	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.50	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	PHI	2	1	1	8	1	1	0	50%	0.7	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.63	—
2026	27	AA RAW	PHI	2	0	3	11	3	0	0	0%	1.5	27.3%	0.0%	27.3%	0.0%	3.00	0.80	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	PHI	28	0	34	150	40	15	4	0%	1.2	26.7%	10.0%	16.7%	2.7%	4.28	3.58	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	PHI	6	0	8	35	5	3	3	0%	1.3	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	8.6%	5.62	7.68	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	PHI	6	0	8	35	5	3	3	0%	1.3	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	8.6%	5.62	7.68	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.32	4.27	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.32	4.27	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	52	229	53	21	8	—	—	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.4%	4.48	4.01	+0.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	14	58	53	21	8	—	—	91.4%	35.6%	55.9%	13.3%	16.77	7.21	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	68	0	71	300	53	23	11	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.6%	10.0%	3.6%	4.94	4.95	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	65	0	68	287	50	23	11	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.0%	9.5%	3.7%	5.00	5.06	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	61	0	64	269	46	22	11	0%	1.0	17.0%	8.3%	8.7%	3.9%	5.13	5.23	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	65	0	68	287	51	22	10	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.6%	10.0%	3.6%	4.94	4.95	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	62	0	65	274	48	22	10	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.0%	9.5%	3.7%	5.00	5.06	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	58	0	61	258	44	21	10	0%	1.1	17.0%	8.3%	8.7%	3.9%	5.13	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		242	0	262	1097	186	83	43	0%	1.1	16.9%	7.6%	9.3%	3.9%	4.97	4.80	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	839	142	63	33	0%	1.1	16.9%	7.6%	9.3%	3.9%	4.97	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		231	39	441	1830	346	124	53	17%	1.9	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	2.9%	3.57	3.96	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	18	200	829	157	56	24	17%	1.9	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	2.9%	3.57	3.96	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Lazar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	17.4%	7.1%	3.2%	—	5.07	17.4%	9.4%	203	+0.38	—	—	—
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	82
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	81
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	80
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	80
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	79
Bryan Shaw R 2015 · 3.90 FIP	27	SU	3.90	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.54	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.36	2.78	596	79
Ronnie Shaban R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	14.1%	5.3%	3.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	104	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	79
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	78
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	78
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	78
Derek Self R 2017 · 4.89 FIP	27	SU	4.89	11.9%	6.7%	3.5%	.273	4.66	14.5%	10.7%	131	-0.23	3.82	302	78
Tyson Perez R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	12.2%	5.9%	3.5%	.338	5.69	14.0%	6.8%	32	+0.94	3.32	121	78
Neftalí Feliz R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	27	SU	3.54	18.2%	5.7%	2.3%	.337	4.91	20.2%	8.4%	191	+1.37	3.54	291	78
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	78
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	78
Scott Burke R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	25	SU	5.27	14.9%	8.2%	4.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	77
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	68	17.4%	7.7%	1.40	4.95
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45