Max Lazar
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 111
ERA4.40
FIP4.36
K%17.9%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p1520.3%
K%
p1015.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.371
CT+0.6 (15%)
CU (26%)
FB-0.8 (55%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 7 | 1 | 14 | 56 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 14% | 2.0 | 17.0% | 2.2% | 14.8% | 5.0% | 5.93 | 4.69 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 7 | 1 | 14 | 56 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 14% | 2.0 | 25.0% | 1.8% | 23.2% | 3.6% | 5.93 | 3.17 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 14 | 14 | 68 | 295 | 55 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 12.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.66 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 14 | 14 | 68 | 295 | 55 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.6% | 5.1% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 3.48 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 13 | 85 | 338 | 119 | 15 | 5 | 59% | 3.9 | 25.4% | 5.6% | 19.9% | 2.0% | 2.33 | 2.74 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 13 | 85 | 338 | 119 | 15 | 5 | 59% | 3.9 | 35.2% | 4.4% | 30.8% | 1.5% | 2.33 | 1.59 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 9 | 40 | 170 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 60% | 2.7 | 10.5% | 9.1% | 1.4% | 5.8% | 3.83 | 6.57 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 9 | 40 | 170 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 60% | 2.7 | 15.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 3.83 | 4.65 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 69 | 288 | 73 | 19 | 5 | 3% | 2.1 | 19.9% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 1.9% | 3.26 | 3.42 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 69 | 288 | 73 | 19 | 5 | 3% | 2.1 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 18.8% | 1.7% | 3.26 | 2.75 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 57 | 222 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 6.6% | 15.9% | 1.6% | 2.53 | 2.93 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 57 | 222 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.3% | 5.4% | 23.9% | 1.4% | 2.53 | 2.14 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 49 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.0% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 4.31 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 49 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 4.31 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 1 | 29 | 126 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 18.7% | 6.6% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.66 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 51 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 51 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 96 | 409 | 76 | 28 | 15 | — | — | 18.5% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.48 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 73 | 309 | 76 | 28 | 15 | — | — | 24.4% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 5.0% | 5.86 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 54 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 47 | 22 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 52 | 22 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 45 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 299 | 0 | 321 | 1347 | 234 | 100 | 53 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.72 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 839 | 146 | 62 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 217 | 39 | 424 | 1752 | 328 | 117 | 54 | 18% | 2.0 | 18.7% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 3.54 | 4.06 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 18 | 200 | 826 | 155 | 55 | 25 | 18% | 2.0 | 18.7% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 3.54 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Lazar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 17.8% | 7.5% | 3.3% | — | 5.09 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 203 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.62 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.56 | 4.06 | 101 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 80 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.90 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.48 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.42 | 2.78 | 596 | 79 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.58 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .246 | 3.53 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.05 | 2.96 | 160 | 79 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.36 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .302 | 3.71 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 331 | 79 |
| Carter Rustad R 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 78 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.83 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 191 | +1.26 | 3.57 | 291 | 78 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 78 |
| Brett McKinney R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 77 |
| Troy Neiman R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 199 | 77 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 77 |
| Ronnie Shaban R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 14.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 104 | 77 |
| Jose Casilla R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 77 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 77 |
| Scott Burke R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 119 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 1.43 | 4.96 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |