Max Lazar — OGILVIE

Max Lazar P Philadelphia Phillies

+0.1 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

ERA4.58

FIP4.47

xFIP4.58

SIERA4.57

K%20.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%12.4%

IP58

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2027

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†4545

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p1520.3%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

CT+0.6 (15%)

CU (26%)

FB-0.8 (55%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	7	1	14	56	14	1	2	17.0%	2.2%	5.0%	5.93	4.69	+0.0
2018	19	ROK	Helena Brewers	14	14	68	295	55	15	7	12.7%	6.4%	3.3%	4.37	4.66	+0.3
2019	20	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	13	85	338	119	15	5	25.4%	5.6%	2.0%	2.33	2.76	+2.3
2022	23	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	15	9	40	170	26	12	6	10.5%	9.1%	5.2%	3.83	6.23	-0.6
2023	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	33	1	69	288	73	19	5	19.9%	7.4%	2.0%	3.26	3.45	+1.2
2024	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	48	0	57	222	65	12	3	22.6%	6.6%	1.6%	2.53	2.89	+1.3
2025	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	54	0	63	257	49	18	10	18.0%	7.1%	3.8%	4.31	4.58	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	PHI	18	—	18	74	14	6	2	18.8%	7.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.66	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	PHI	58	—	58	243	47	20	8	19.2%	8.1%	3.2%	4.71	4.65	+0.2
2028	29	MLB	PHI	56	—	56	238	45	20	8	19.1%	8.2%	3.3%	4.69	4.70	+0.2
2029	30	MLB	PHI	55	—	55	231	43	19	8	18.8%	8.4%	3.3%	4.73	4.77	+0.1
2030	31	MLB	PHI	53	—	53	223	41	19	7	18.3%	8.5%	3.4%	4.81	4.86	+0.1
2031	32	MLB	PHI	51	—	51	214	38	19	7	17.7%	8.7%	3.5%	4.91	4.98	-0.0
2032	33	MLB	PHI	48	—	48	204	35	18	7	17.0%	8.8%	3.5%	5.03	5.11	-0.1
2033	34	MLB	PHI	46	—	46	194	32	18	7	16.3%	9.0%	3.6%	5.16	5.25	-0.2
2034	35	MLB	PHI	43	—	43	183	28	17	7	15.6%	9.3%	3.8%	5.30	5.40	-0.2
2035	36	MLB	PHI	40	—	40	171	25	16	7	14.8%	9.5%	3.9%	5.46	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			193	38	395	1626	305	109	47	18.7%	6.7%	2.9%	3.46	3.96	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—			98	19	200	823	154	55	24	18.7%	6.7%	2.9%	3.46	3.96	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Lazar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	18.8%	7.9%	3.2%	—	4.71	19.0%	10.8%	168	+0.05	—	—	—
Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	3.0%	.339	3.39	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.73	3.11	166	84
Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	16.9%	7.7%	2.0%	.288	3.35	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.40	3.08	201	84
Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	27	SW	3.91	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.53	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.38	2.86	596	83
Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	27	SU	4.13	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.68	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.45	2.68	229	82
Cory Gearrin R 2028 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.4%	.283	3.61	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.09	3.17	272	81
Jack Dallas R 2025 · 3.58 FIP	26	SU	3.58	18.9%	6.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	169	81
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.46	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.00	3.46	198	80
Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	27	SW	3.75	17.6%	6.3%	2.4%	.246	3.68	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.07	3.25	160	80
Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	27	SW	3.58	18.2%	5.7%	2.4%	.337	4.93	20.2%	8.4%	191	+1.35	3.58	291	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	79
Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	27	SW	4.04	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.34	4.04	101	79
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	79
Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	28	SW	4.19	17.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.250	4.61	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.42	3.86	231	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP	28	SW	3.91	20.2%	7.4%	2.9%	.348	3.55	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.36	2.38	160	78
Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	27	SW	3.50	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.22	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.28	2.49	131	78
Alex Cobb R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	28	SU	5.17	14.0%	6.9%	4.3%	.366	4.43	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.74	2.72	844	78
Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	78
Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	27	SU	3.64	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	101	78
Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	27	SW	3.57	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.14	2.83	432	78
Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	27	SW	4.66	15.9%	8.5%	3.3%	.307	3.46	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.20	3.35	227	78

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.