Riley O'Brien — OGILVIE

Riley O'Brien P St. Louis Cardinals

+0.7 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.7 · 2026

ERA3.11

FIP3.80

xFIP1.64

SIERA0.92

K%24.6%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%14.6%

IP46

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2026

K†6060

FB+5.8 (59%)

SL+0.8 (40%)

SI (59%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	22	ROK	Princeton Rays	11	10	41	159	40	17	1	17.1%	13.4%	0.9%	2.20	3.83	+0.5
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	25	13	88	357	103	41	4	21.7%	13.4%	1.5%	2.75	3.77	+1.4
2019	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	20	17	103	429	107	44	6	19.9%	11.5%	1.8%	3.16	3.89	+1.6
2021	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	24	23	114	499	123	57	18	21.7%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.53	+1.0
2022	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	34	1	41	201	48	31	5	21.1%	16.1%	2.5%	6.86	4.75	+0.1
2023	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	51	3	55	228	86	30	2	33.2%	13.8%	0.9%	2.29	2.52	+1.5
2024	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	22	0	21	98	20	13	2	15.2%	10.1%	0.0%	5.06	3.09	+0.4
2025	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	61	0	67	285	77	28	3	25.7%	10.0%	1.2%	2.27	2.86	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	10	0	10	35	11	0	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	CIN	36	—	36	152	41	15	3	26.9%	10.0%	2.0%	3.05	3.60	+0.6
2026 Total	31	MLB	CIN	—	—	46	187	52	15	3	27.7%	8.1%	1.7%	2.37	2.80	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	CIN	44	—	44	188	50	17	4	26.5%	9.2%	2.1%	3.30	3.57	+0.7
2028	33	MLB	CIN	42	—	42	179	46	17	4	25.6%	9.4%	2.3%	3.59	3.75	+0.6
2029	34	MLB	CIN	40	—	40	171	42	16	4	24.8%	9.6%	2.4%	3.80	3.92	+0.5
2030	35	MLB	CIN	38	—	38	161	39	16	4	24.0%	9.8%	2.5%	3.97	4.08	+0.4
2031	36	MLB	CIN	36	—	36	150	35	15	4	23.3%	10.1%	2.6%	4.13	4.24	+0.3
2032	37	MLB	CIN	33	—	33	139	31	14	4	22.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.30	4.42	+0.2
2033	38	MLB	CIN	30	—	30	128	28	14	4	21.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			258	67	541	2291	515	278	41	22.5%	12.1%	1.8%	3.43	3.73	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—			95	25	200	847	191	103	15	22.5%	12.1%	1.8%	3.43	3.73	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley O'Brien (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.60	26.9%	10.0%	2.0%	—	3.74	25.7%	16.3%	127	+0.14	—	—	—
John Axford R 2027 · 3.28 FIP	32	SW	3.28	24.8%	11.2%	1.6%	.333	3.94	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.66	3.28	197	82
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	75
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	72
Oliver Drake R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	31	SU	2.91	24.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.348	3.26	33.5%	25.4%	80	+0.35	2.26	317	72
Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	31	SW	4.58	18.7%	7.8%	3.8%	.257	5.67	23.7%	14.4%	20	+1.09	2.33	318	72
Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.02	18.8%	10.8%	60	+0.98	3.04	252	71
Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	31	SU	4.63	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	71
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	71
Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	70
Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	31	SU	3.51	18.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.280	3.50	21.2%	14.8%	153	-0.01	2.67	186	70
Luis García R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.21	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.17	2.26	602	70
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	70
Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	20.6%	10.8%	1.1%	.333	3.78	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.47	3.31	244	69
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	69
Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	69
Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	31	SW	3.53	20.4%	7.6%	2.2%	.312	3.71	19.3%	6.8%	23	+0.18	2.41	343	68
Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	68
Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	68
Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	31	SU	4.16	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.43	14.7%	-1.9%	23	+3.27	2.91	334	67

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.1M
2030	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$5M