Riley O'Brien — OGILVIE

Riley O'Brien P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.54

FIP3.38

K%24.5%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.8

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

FB+5.8 (59%)

SL+0.8 (40%)

SI (59%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.5M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	11	10	41	159	40	17	1	91%	3.7	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	0.9%	2.20	3.83	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	11	10	41	159	40	17	1	91%	3.7	25.2%	10.7%	14.5%	0.6%	2.20	2.71	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	88	357	103	41	4	52%	3.5	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	1.5%	2.75	3.77	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	88	357	103	41	4	52%	3.5	28.9%	11.5%	17.4%	1.1%	2.75	2.75	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	103	429	107	44	6	85%	5.1	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	1.8%	3.16	3.88	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	103	429	107	44	6	85%	5.1	24.9%	10.3%	14.7%	1.4%	3.16	3.06	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	114	499	123	57	18	96%	4.8	21.7%	11.6%	10.2%	3.3%	4.66	4.54	+0.5
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	114	499	123	57	18	96%	4.8	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	3.6%	4.66	4.49	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	41	201	48	31	5	3%	1.2	21.1%	16.1%	5.0%	2.5%	6.86	4.70	-0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	41	201	48	31	5	3%	1.2	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	2.5%	6.86	4.62	-0.0
2023	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	51	3	55	228	86	30	2	6%	1.1	31.3%	11.8%	19.5%	0.8%	2.29	2.41	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	51	3	55	228	86	30	2	6%	1.1	31.3%	11.8%	19.5%	0.8%	2.29	2.41	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	51	3	55	228	86	30	2	6%	1.1	37.7%	13.2%	24.6%	0.9%	2.29	2.08	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	21	98	20	13	2	0%	1.0	14.4%	8.7%	5.7%	0.0%	5.06	2.98	+0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	21	98	20	13	2	0%	1.0	14.4%	8.7%	5.7%	0.0%	5.06	2.98	+0.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	21	98	20	13	2	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.3%	7.1%	2.0%	5.06	4.27	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	67	285	77	28	3	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	1.2%	2.27	2.85	+1.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	67	285	77	28	3	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	1.2%	2.27	2.85	+1.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	67	285	77	28	3	0%	1.1	27.0%	9.8%	17.2%	1.1%	2.27	2.64	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			114	1	118	518	119	55	10	1%	1.0	23.0%	10.6%	12.4%	1.9%	3.88	3.58	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	60	259	60	23	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	1.7%	4.20	3.18	+1.0
YTD	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	60	259	60	23	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	1.7%	4.20	3.18	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	STL	62	0	60	259	60	23	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	1.5%	4.20	3.12	+1.0
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	STL	62	0	60	259	60	23	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	1.5%	4.20	3.12	+1.0
ROS	31	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	6	2	0	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	3.54	3.38	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	STL	6	0	6	25	6	2	0	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	1.9%	3.47	3.31	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	66	284	66	25	4	—	—	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	1.6%	4.14	3.20	+1.1
FULL	31	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	66	278	66	25	4	—	—	23.8%	9.1%	14.6%	1.6%	4.13	3.13	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	STL	127	0	133	562	135	58	12	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.3%	13.7%	2.1%	3.88	3.92	+1.0
2028	33	MLB MLE	STL	116	0	122	516	119	55	12	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.4%	4.07	4.20	+0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	STL	121	0	127	536	129	55	11	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.3%	13.7%	2.0%	3.80	3.84	+1.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	STL	110	0	116	490	113	52	11	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.2%	3.98	4.11	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		351	1	367	1567	367	165	32	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	2.0%	3.88	3.58	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	1	200	854	200	90	17	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	2.0%	3.88	3.58	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		310	67	590	2515	558	294	46	22%	1.9	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	1.8%	3.57	3.70	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	23	200	852	189	100	15	22%	1.9	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	1.8%	3.57	3.70	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley O'Brien (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.74	26.2%	10.6%	2.1%	—	4.05	23.6%	13.1%	255	+0.31	—	—	—
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	81
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	74
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	72
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	71
Oliver Drake R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	24.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.348	3.25	33.5%	25.4%	80	+0.20	2.26	317	70
Jake Petricka R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.07	18.8%	10.8%	60	+1.03	3.04	252	69
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	69
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	68
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	68
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	67
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	67
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	67
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	67
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	67
Héctor Rondón R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	31	SU	4.70	18.7%	7.8%	4.0%	.257	5.87	23.7%	14.4%	20	+1.17	2.42	318	67
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	67
Rob Scahill R 2018 · 3.06 FIP	31	SU	3.06	22.6%	9.5%	1.2%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	201	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	133	24.5%	10.5%	0.85	3.95
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67