Riley O'Brien
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 105 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10192vR 83
ERA3.40
FIP3.25
K%25.3%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%15.2%
ROS IP105
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.2
Whiff%
p6227.1%
K%
p5823.6%
xwOBA vs
p400.323
FB+5.8 (60%)
SL+0.8 (39%)
SI (59%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 10 | 41 | 159 | 40 | 17 | 1 | 91% | 3.7 | 17.1% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 2.20 | 3.83 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 10 | 41 | 159 | 40 | 17 | 1 | 91% | 3.7 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 0.6% | 2.20 | 2.71 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 88 | 357 | 103 | 41 | 4 | 52% | 3.5 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 2.75 | 3.79 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 88 | 357 | 103 | 41 | 4 | 52% | 3.5 | 28.9% | 11.5% | 17.4% | 1.1% | 2.75 | 2.75 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 103 | 429 | 107 | 44 | 6 | 85% | 5.1 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 3.16 | 3.97 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 103 | 429 | 107 | 44 | 6 | 85% | 5.1 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 1.4% | 3.16 | 3.06 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 114 | 499 | 123 | 57 | 18 | 96% | 4.8 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 114 | 499 | 123 | 57 | 18 | 96% | 4.8 | 24.6% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 41 | 201 | 48 | 31 | 5 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 16.1% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 6.86 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 41 | 201 | 48 | 31 | 5 | 3% | 1.2 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 6.86 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 51 | 3 | 55 | 228 | 86 | 30 | 2 | 6% | 1.1 | 33.2% | 13.8% | 19.4% | 0.7% | 2.29 | 2.45 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 51 | 3 | 55 | 228 | 86 | 30 | 2 | 6% | 1.1 | 37.7% | 13.2% | 24.6% | 0.9% | 2.29 | 2.08 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 21 | 98 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 3.09 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 21 | 98 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 7.1% | 2.0% | 5.06 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 67 | 285 | 77 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 1.2% | 2.27 | 2.87 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 67 | 285 | 77 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 9.8% | 17.2% | 1.1% | 2.27 | 2.64 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 39 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 39 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 1.2% | 3.43 | 2.77 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | STL | 100 | 0 | 105 | 442 | 112 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 1.8% | 3.40 | 3.25 | +2.6 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | STL | 100 | 0 | 105 | 443 | 112 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 1.8% | 3.40 | 3.25 | +2.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | STL | — | — | 144 | 607 | 151 | 58 | 10 | — | — | 24.8% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 1.7% | 3.41 | 3.12 | +3.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | STL | — | — | 144 | 608 | 151 | 58 | 10 | — | — | 24.8% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 3.41 | 3.12 | +3.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | STL | 127 | 0 | 133 | 562 | 137 | 58 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 3.93 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | STL | 116 | 0 | 122 | 516 | 121 | 54 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | STL | 121 | 0 | 127 | 536 | 131 | 55 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 3.93 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | STL | 110 | 0 | 116 | 490 | 115 | 51 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 422 | 1 | 445 | 1890 | 455 | 196 | 40 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.55 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 850 | 205 | 88 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 287 | 67 | 570 | 2421 | 543 | 291 | 42 | 23% | 2.0 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 3.49 | 3.68 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 24 | 200 | 850 | 191 | 102 | 15 | 23% | 2.0 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 3.49 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley O'Brien (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.76 | 26.7% | 11.1% | 2.0% | — | 4.07 | 23.9% | 13.6% | 255 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 73 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 70 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 69 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.05 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .348 | 3.26 | 33.5% | 25.4% | 80 | +0.21 | 2.25 | 317 | 68 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 68 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 60 | +1.21 | 3.04 | 252 | 68 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 68 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .257 | 5.52 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 20 | +1.00 | 2.37 | 318 | 67 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 67 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 67 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2027 · 2.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.77 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 1.3% | .254 | 2.78 | 36.3% | 25.3% | 181 | +0.01 | 2.52 | 356 | 67 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 66 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 66 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 66 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 28.4% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .336 | 3.41 | 32.8% | 15.6% | 16 | +0.41 | 3.00 | 246 | 65 |
| Radhames Liz R 2026 · 2.77 FIP | 31 | SW | 2.77 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 1.1% | .283 | 4.31 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 23 | +1.54 | 2.77 | 110 | 65 |
| Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.60 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .312 | 3.66 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 23 | +0.06 | 2.52 | 343 | 65 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 65 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.20 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 113 | +1.12 | 2.40 | 617 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 133 | 24.9% | 10.6% | 0.87 | 3.96 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Alek Manoah ('24) | 4 | 105 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 1.03 | 3.34 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |