Josh Fleming
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
ERA4.62
FIP4.73
xFIP7.32
SIERA5.43
K%13.7%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%5.9%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4040
CMD2525
K†3030
FB Velo
p1090.4
Whiff%
p1018.8%
K%
p1012.3%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
SI (38%)
CU (34%)
CH (23%)
CT-0.6 (5%)
FB-1.3 (38%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 9 | 35 | 149 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 11.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.40 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 19 | 17 | 110 | 433 | 80 | 18 | 5 | 13.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 2.53 | 3.45 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 25 | 20 | 149 | 611 | 108 | 26 | 15 | 14.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.57 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 7 | 5 | 32 | 130 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 19.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.78 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 11 | 114 | 485 | 77 | 27 | 11 | 14.5% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.02 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 13 | 100 | 429 | 75 | 25 | 9 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 4.24 | 3.69 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 27 | 8 | 85 | 371 | 42 | 25 | 12 | 10.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.82 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51 | 3 | 60 | 261 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 47 | 3 | 84 | 381 | 44 | 26 | 9 | 10.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 4.31 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | TOR | 25 | — | 25 | 106 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 11.3% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 37 | 156 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 12.8% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.55 | 3.45 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 25 | — | 25 | 106 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 10.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 91 | 781 | 3300 | 450 | 194 | 86 | 13.6% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 4.12 | +10.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 23 | 200 | 845 | 115 | 50 | 22 | 13.6% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Fleming (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 11.3% | 8.7% | 2.6% | — | 5.16 | 10.7% | 1.9% | 25 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 86 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 81 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 78 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 75 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.90 | 10.3% | 9.4% | 0.9% | .321 | 7.57 | 11.3% | 3.3% | 38 | +3.67 | 3.90 | 161 | 74 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.67 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .354 | 3.79 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.88 | 3.79 | 137 | 72 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 71 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 70 |
| Jason Vargas L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.25 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.61 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.36 | 4.04 | 478 | 69 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.27 | 11.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .250 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 8.6% | 45 | -0.29 | 2.82 | 414 | 69 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 118 | 68 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 68 |
| Bryan Harper L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.65 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 133 | 67 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 67 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 66 |
| T.J. McFarland L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 14.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .335 | 4.28 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 141 | +0.24 | 2.98 | 602 | 66 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.28 | 128 | 66 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.43 | 8.1% | 13.8% | 2.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 115 | 66 |
| Jeff Locke L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 328 | 66 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 12.8% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 430 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.