Josh Fleming
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION136 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 131
ERA4.75
FIP4.94
K%10.2%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%2.8%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 193 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.4
Whiff%
p1018.8%
K%
p1012.3%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
SI (38%)
CU (34%)
CH (23%)
CT-0.6 (5%)
FB-1.3 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 9 | 35 | 149 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 75% | 2.9 | 11.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.40 | 5.42 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 9 | 35 | 149 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 75% | 2.9 | 17.4% | 4.7% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.40 | 4.07 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 110 | 433 | 80 | 18 | 5 | 89% | 5.8 | 13.9% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 2.53 | 3.58 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 110 | 433 | 80 | 18 | 5 | 89% | 5.8 | 18.5% | 4.2% | 14.3% | 1.2% | 2.53 | 2.73 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 149 | 611 | 108 | 26 | 15 | 80% | 5.9 | 14.5% | 4.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.57 | 4.09 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 149 | 611 | 108 | 26 | 15 | 80% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 3.57 | 3.48 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 7 | 5 | 32 | 130 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 71% | 4.6 | 19.2% | 5.4% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 2.78 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 7 | 5 | 32 | 130 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 71% | 4.6 | 19.2% | 5.4% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 2.78 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 11 | 114 | 485 | 77 | 27 | 11 | 33% | 3.5 | 14.5% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.04 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 11 | 114 | 485 | 77 | 27 | 11 | 33% | 3.5 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.72 | 3.71 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 100 | 429 | 75 | 25 | 9 | 52% | 4.0 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 2.2% | 4.24 | 3.70 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 100 | 429 | 75 | 25 | 9 | 52% | 4.0 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 4.24 | 3.52 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 8 | 85 | 371 | 42 | 25 | 12 | 30% | 3.1 | 10.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.92 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 8 | 85 | 371 | 42 | 25 | 12 | 30% | 3.1 | 11.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.84 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 3 | 60 | 261 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 6% | 1.2 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 4.50 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 3 | 60 | 261 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 6% | 1.2 | 13.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 47 | 3 | 84 | 381 | 44 | 26 | 9 | 6% | 1.8 | 10.2% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 4.91 | 4.16 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 47 | 3 | 84 | 381 | 44 | 26 | 9 | 6% | 1.8 | 11.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 4.91 | 4.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 28 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 105 | 26 | 11 | 89% | 4.8 | 16.5% | 4.5% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 3.32 | 3.37 | +3.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 25 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 10.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 25 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 10.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 193 | 818 | 130 | 44 | 17 | — | — | 15.9% | 5.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.84 | +3.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 61 | 256 | 130 | 44 | 17 | — | — | 50.7% | 17.2% | 33.5% | 6.7% | 11.93 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 24 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 22 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.18 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.18 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 36 | 419 | 1805 | 231 | 130 | 53 | 19% | 2.2 | 12.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.53 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 17 | 200 | 862 | 110 | 62 | 25 | 19% | 2.2 | 12.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 274 | 114 | 905 | 3824 | 536 | 218 | 97 | 42% | 3.3 | 14.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.03 | +14.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 25 | 200 | 845 | 119 | 48 | 21 | 42% | 3.3 | 14.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Fleming (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 10.2% | 7.4% | 2.5% | — | 5.22 | 10.0% | 2.0% | 109 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 78 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 74 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 70 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | .286 | 3.83 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -1.11 | 2.69 | 233 | 70 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 68 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 67 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 67 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 66 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 63 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.38 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 200 | 63 |
| Travis Wood L 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.72 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 256 | 62 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 62 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 59 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 58 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.97 | 12.8% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 430 | 58 |
| Brian Johnson L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.17 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 506 | 57 |
| James Gillheeney L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 57 |
| Mike Kickham L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.00 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .311 | 5.91 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 61 | +1.91 | 3.00 | 368 | 57 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.32 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% | .337 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 4.4% | 86 | -0.59 | 3.36 | 764 | 56 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.83 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | .297 | 5.54 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.71 | 3.47 | 512 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 10.1% | 7.8% | 1.06 | 4.96 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Justin Nicolino ('17) | 3 | 67 | 9.8% | 6.8% | 1.07 | 4.65 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |