Josh Fleming — OGILVIE

Josh Fleming P Memphis Redbirds

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.76

FIP4.94

K%10.0%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%3.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.4

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p1012.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

SI (38%)

CU (34%)

CH (23%)

CT-0.6 (5%)

FB-1.3 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	12	9	35	149	26	7	5	75%	2.9	11.9%	5.9%	6.0%	4.7%	5.40	5.42	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	12	9	35	149	26	7	5	75%	2.9	17.4%	4.7%	12.8%	3.4%	5.40	4.07	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	110	433	80	18	5	89%	5.8	13.9%	4.8%	9.1%	1.6%	2.53	3.44	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	110	433	80	18	5	89%	5.8	18.5%	4.2%	14.3%	1.2%	2.53	2.73	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	149	611	108	26	15	80%	5.9	14.5%	4.6%	9.9%	2.9%	3.57	4.04	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	149	611	108	26	15	80%	5.9	17.7%	4.3%	13.4%	2.5%	3.57	3.48	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	7	5	32	130	25	7	5	71%	4.6	19.2%	5.4%	13.8%	4.0%	2.78	4.33	+0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	7	5	32	130	25	7	5	71%	4.6	19.2%	5.4%	13.8%	3.8%	2.78	4.21	+0.3
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	11	114	485	77	27	11	33%	3.5	14.5%	5.8%	8.7%	2.5%	4.72	4.00	+0.8
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	11	114	485	77	27	11	33%	3.5	15.9%	5.6%	10.3%	2.3%	4.72	3.71	+1.1
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	100	429	75	25	9	52%	4.0	16.2%	6.0%	10.2%	2.2%	4.24	3.69	+1.4
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	100	429	75	25	9	52%	4.0	17.5%	5.8%	11.7%	2.1%	4.24	3.52	+1.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	8	85	371	42	25	12	30%	3.1	10.3%	6.6%	3.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.90	-0.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	8	85	371	42	25	12	30%	3.1	10.3%	6.6%	3.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.90	-0.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	8	85	371	42	25	12	30%	3.1	11.3%	6.7%	4.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.84	-0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	3	60	261	35	20	6	6%	1.2	12.2%	7.4%	4.8%	2.3%	4.50	4.30	+0.2
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	3	60	261	35	20	6	6%	1.2	12.2%	7.4%	4.8%	2.3%	4.50	4.30	+0.2
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	3	60	261	35	20	6	6%	1.2	13.4%	7.7%	5.7%	2.3%	4.50	4.23	+0.2
2025	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	47	3	84	381	44	26	9	6%	1.8	9.6%	6.1%	3.4%	2.2%	4.91	4.25	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	47	3	84	381	44	26	9	6%	1.8	9.6%	6.1%	3.4%	2.2%	4.91	4.25	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	47	3	84	381	44	26	9	6%	1.8	11.5%	6.8%	4.7%	2.4%	4.91	4.37	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			81	25	258	1124	162	77	34	31%	3.2	14.4%	6.9%	7.6%	3.0%	4.86	4.45	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	23	18	105	449	79	23	15	78%	4.6	15.0%	4.4%	10.6%	3.6%	4.20	4.35	—
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	23	18	105	449	79	23	15	78%	4.6	15.0%	4.4%	10.6%	3.6%	4.20	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	TOR	22	18	102	431	78	21	14	82%	4.6	18.1%	4.9%	13.2%	3.2%	3.97	3.97	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	TOR	1	0	3	18	1	2	1	0%	3.0	5.6%	11.1%	-5.6%	5.6%	12.00	7.09	—
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	TOR	1	0	3	18	1	2	1	0%	3.0	5.6%	11.1%	-5.6%	5.6%	12.00	7.09	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	5	22	2	1	1	100%	5.1	10.0%	6.7%	3.3%	2.6%	4.76	4.94	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	TOR	1	1	5	21	2	1	1	100%	5.0	10.0%	6.7%	3.3%	2.6%	4.76	4.94	-0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	110	471	81	24	16	—	—	17.2%	5.2%	12.0%	3.3%	4.23	4.38	+0.7
FULL	30	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	8	34	81	24	16	—	—	236.9%	71.4%	165.5%	45.4%	57.35	17.08	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TOR	54	0	57	239	24	17	7	0%	1.0	10.0%	7.1%	2.9%	2.9%	4.97	5.11	-0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	TOR	50	0	52	221	22	17	7	0%	1.0	10.0%	7.5%	2.5%	3.1%	5.17	5.30	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	TOR	51	0	54	228	23	16	7	0%	1.1	10.0%	7.1%	2.9%	2.9%	4.97	5.11	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	21	16	7	0%	1.0	10.0%	7.5%	2.5%	3.1%	5.17	5.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		180	26	366	1583	208	110	48	14%	2.0	13.1%	7.0%	6.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		99	14	200	864	114	60	26	14%	2.0	13.1%	7.0%	6.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		269	107	874	3699	505	206	101	40%	3.3	13.7%	5.6%	8.1%	2.7%	4.07	4.15	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	24	200	846	116	47	23	40%	3.3	13.7%	5.6%	8.1%	2.7%	4.07	4.15	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Fleming (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	10.0%	6.7%	2.6%	—	5.20	10.0%	2.7%	109	+0.26	—	—	—
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	76
James Russell L 2016 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	12.4%	5.7%	3.7%	.286	3.86	16.8%	13.2%	119	-0.94	2.66	233	72
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	71
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	70
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	68
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	66
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	66
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	65
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	65
Travis Wood L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	30	SW	5.48	14.9%	10.3%	4.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	256	64
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	62
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	61
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	57
Mike Kickham L 2019 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.311	5.98	18.8%	8.7%	61	+1.86	3.00	368	56
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	56
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	430	56
Daniel Camarena L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	14.0%	5.6%	4.2%	.342	6.84	12.8%	2.0%	51	+1.90	3.76	674	56
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	55
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	57	10.0%	7.1%	1.11	4.96
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Justin Nicolino ('17)	1.0	67	9.8%	6.8%	1.07	4.65
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56