Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 43.3% | 10.0% | 33.3% | 3.3% | 1.23 | 2.54 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 43.3% | 10.0% | 33.3% | 3.3% | 1.23 | 2.55 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 66 | 293 | 62 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.7% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.09 | 4.42 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 66 | 293 | 62 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 4.09 | 3.75 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 34 | 0 | 55 | 240 | 61 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 0.6% | 4.42 | 3.11 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 34 | 0 | 55 | 240 | 61 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.4% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 0.8% | 4.42 | 2.55 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 3 | 56 | 247 | 72 | 31 | 7 | 9% | 1.7 | 24.3% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.82 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 3 | 56 | 247 | 72 | 31 | 7 | 9% | 1.7 | 29.1% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 3.82 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 4 | 64 | 293 | 73 | 30 | 11 | 7% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 4.20 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 4 | 64 | 293 | 73 | 30 | 11 | 7% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 4.20 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 5 | 35 | 166 | 38 | 19 | 4 | 19% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 5 | 35 | 166 | 38 | 19 | 4 | 19% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 5.35 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 60 | 261 | 67 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 17.0% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 2.08 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 60 | 261 | 67 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 0.4% | 3.30 | 2.28 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 65 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 3.28 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 65 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 3.28 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 40 | 0 | 40 | 179 | 40 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 14.5% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 4.31 | 3.05 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.65 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.65 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 63 | 278 | 63 | 37 | 2 | — | — | 22.8% | 13.4% | 9.4% | 0.7% | 4.06 | 3.28 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 63 | 266 | 63 | 37 | 2 | — | — | 23.7% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 0.7% | 4.06 | 3.27 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 57 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 4.14 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 51 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 54 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 4.14 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 49 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 322 | 4 | 332 | 1443 | 334 | 160 | 29 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 4.16 | 3.64 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 2 | 200 | 870 | 201 | 96 | 17 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 4.16 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 351 | 12 | 444 | 1964 | 437 | 225 | 42 | 3% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 4.06 | 3.86 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 5 | 200 | 885 | 197 | 102 | 19 | 3% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 4.06 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Calvin Faucher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.36 | 22.6% | 10.6% | 113 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 79 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.27 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .293 | 3.11 | 27.4% | 19.2% | 95 | -0.16 | 2.48 | 556 | 77 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.23 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.16 | 186 | 74 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.99 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .280 | 3.50 | 23.7% | 15.4% | 87 | +0.51 | 2.39 | 332 | 73 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 72 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 71 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 71 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 69 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 69 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 69 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.69 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 4.69 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 86 | +1.00 | 3.17 | 446 | 69 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 69 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 69 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.30 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .310 | 3.40 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 89 | +0.10 | 2.37 | 363 | 68 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 68 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.96 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% | .251 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 17.4% | 50 | +0.68 | 2.96 | 230 | 68 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 4.20 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |