Tanner Bibee

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	25	MLBCLE	31	31	174	3.47	3.35	26.3%	6.2%	3.3
2025	26	MLBCLE	31	31	182	4.24	4.12	21.3%	7.0%	1.7
2026	27	MLBCLE	33	33	188	4.36	4.41	19.0%	7.1%	1.1
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	30	30	183	4.34	4.56	20.6%	7.0%	0.7
2028PROJ	29	MLBCLE	29	29	175	4.55	4.70	20.0%	7.2%	0.4
2029PROJ	30	MLBCLE	27	27	164	4.77	4.91	19.3%	7.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030Options2

2027Ext$10M2028Ext$10M2029Ext$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

xwOBA vs43

Whiff%38

K%28

CompsBud Norris (age 28) · Joe Blanton (age 28) · Brian Lawrence (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 100

ERA4.34

FIP4.56

K%20.6%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP183

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

CH+3.4 (15%)

SI (21%)

CU (11%)

FB-3.2 (44%)

SL-3.8 (24%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$10M	+0.7	$3M	-$7M
2028	Ext	$10M	+0.4	$1M	-$7M
2029	Ext	$10M	—	—	—
Totals		$29M		$4M	-$22M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$9.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$22M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	516	167	27	12	100%	5.3	25.5%	5.9%	19.7%	2.6%	2.17	3.13	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	516	167	27	12	100%	5.3	32.4%	5.2%	27.1%	2.3%	2.17	2.37	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	100%	5.6	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	2.0%	2.86	3.17	+3.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.2%	16.6%	2.0%	2.86	3.15	+3.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.37	+3.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.37	+3.3
2024	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.35	+3.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.6%	4.24	4.14	+1.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.6%	4.24	4.14	+1.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.5%	4.24	4.12	+1.7
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	188	780	148	55	29	100%	5.7	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.7%	4.36	4.44	+1.0
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	188	780	148	55	29	100%	5.7	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.7%	4.36	4.44	+1.0
2026	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	188	780	148	55	29	100%	5.7	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.7%	4.36	4.41	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	120	686	2837	638	197	91	100%	5.7	22.5%	6.9%	15.5%	3.2%	3.82	3.83	+8.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	30	30	183	773	159	54	27	100%	6.1	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	3.5%	4.34	4.56	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	175	738	148	53	27	100%	6.0	20.0%	7.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.56	4.71	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	164	694	134	52	27	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.9%	4.78	4.92	-0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	153	647	120	51	26	100%	5.9	18.6%	7.9%	10.7%	4.1%	5.00	5.15	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	29	29	175	739	148	53	27	100%	6.0	20.0%	7.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.55	4.70	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	164	692	134	52	27	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.9%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	153	646	120	51	26	100%	5.9	18.6%	7.9%	10.7%	4.1%	4.99	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	202	1178	4916	1039	353	171	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	3.5%	4.21	4.13	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	834	176	60	29	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	3.5%	4.21	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		148	148	834	3414	786	235	105	100%	5.6	23.0%	6.9%	16.2%	3.1%	3.52	3.71	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	819	189	56	25	100%	5.6	23.0%	6.9%	16.2%	3.1%	3.52	3.71	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Bibee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.6%	7.0%	3.5%	—	4.92	19.3%	11.8%	492	+0.36	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	75
Joe Blanton R 2009 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	19.5%	6.6%	3.6%	.285	3.83	19.1%	14.9%	408	-0.43	3.01	1,799	74
Brian Lawrence R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	13.9%	5.5%	3.0%	.296	4.02	12.8%	6.6%	225	-0.24	3.33	963	74
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	72
Matt Clement R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	20.1%	9.0%	2.6%	.253	4.00	19.9%	10.6%	437	+0.03	2.56	1,413	72
Dave Bush R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	14.3%	5.9%	3.8%	.231	4.65	15.1%	8.1%	326	-0.08	3.65	1,141	72
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	69
James Shields R 2010 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	20.8%	5.5%	3.9%	.337	3.45	22.5%	15.9%	706	-0.72	3.35	2,630	69
Chan Ho Park R 2001 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP	3.67	22.2%	9.2%	2.3%	.246	5.18	16.2%	5.5%	271	+1.51	3.20	1,981	68
Orlando Hernandez R 2000 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	17.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.255	4.38	18.6%	11.3%	241	-0.30	3.35	1,315	67
Brian Moehler R 2000 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP	4.05	13.3%	5.2%	2.6%	.330	5.28	10.6%	5.1%	77	+1.23	3.81	1,559	66
Ian Kennedy R 2013 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP	4.34	20.5%	9.1%	3.3%	.288	3.93	23.8%	16.3%	565	-0.41	2.88	1,929	66
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	65
Darren Dreifort R 2000 · 4.77 FIP	28	SP	4.77	19.5%	10.2%	3.7%	.257	3.86	23.4%	12.7%	155	-0.91	2.87	873	65
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	65
Esteban Loaiza R 2000 · 4.41 FIP	28	SP	4.41	15.7%	6.4%	3.3%	.307	3.74	16.8%	11.5%	568	-0.67	2.96	2,099	64
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2012 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP	4.76	17.8%	11.4%	3.1%	.303	3.74	22.6%	12.0%	492	-1.02	2.83	1,862	64
Marcus Stroman R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	28	SP	3.58	20.5%	7.4%	2.3%	.306	3.48	21.3%	15.3%	318	-0.10	2.70	1,497	64
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	63
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	170	21.1%	7.2%	1.35	4.23
Doug Rau ('72-'81, 17 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.1%*	6.9%*	1.16*	4.05*
Johnny Broaca ('34-'39, 6 WAR*)	3.4	135	20.0%*	7.5%*	1.29*	4.02*
Johnny Marcum ('33-'39, 13 WAR*)	5.5	157	18.4%*	6.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Julio Teheran ('24)	7.4	163	20.5%	8.0%	1.24	3.85
Shaun Marcum ('15)	5.2	129	19.4%	7.3%	1.22	3.93