Aaron Perry — OGILVIE

Aaron Perry P South Bend Cubs

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 175 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 18 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%22.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	9	5	21	93	18	19	0	56%	2.3	13.2%	25.5%	-12.4%	0.0%	3.00	5.22	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	9	5	21	93	18	19	0	56%	2.3	19.4%	20.4%	-1.1%	0.0%	3.00	4.10	—
2021	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	13	1	23	108	33	8	2	8%	1.8	22.6%	8.7%	13.9%	2.8%	6.26	3.84	—
2021	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	13	1	23	108	33	8	2	8%	1.8	30.6%	7.4%	23.1%	1.9%	6.26	2.40	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	0	3	11	3	1	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	3	0	3	11	3	1	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	19	0	21	111	28	10	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.1%	3.6%	9.70	4.76	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	19	0	21	111	28	10	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	2.7%	9.70	3.71	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	34	142	35	12	3	18%	3.1	18.2%	9.3%	8.8%	3.4%	4.72	4.59	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	34	142	35	12	3	18%	3.1	18.2%	9.3%	8.8%	3.4%	4.72	4.59	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	2	34	142	35	12	3	18%	3.1	24.6%	8.5%	16.2%	2.1%	4.72	3.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CHC	17	0	18	76	17	7	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.2%	13.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CHC	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.53	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.15	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	66	33	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		55	8	103	465	87	59	12	15%	1.9	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	2.5%	5.61	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	16	200	906	169	115	23	15%	1.9	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	2.5%	5.61	4.52	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Perry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.4%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.53	22.2%	12.8%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	79
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	77
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	77
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	77
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	76
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	76
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	76