Spencer Howard

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	24	20	97	5.77	4.56	24.2%	9.0%	0.4	K 22.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.69
2023	27	MIX2 levels	15	2	24	7.40	6.18	33.0%	9.2%	-0.5	K 32.1% · BB 6.9% · FIP 6.48
2024	28	MIX2 levels	31	13	91	6.45	4.38	27.2%	9.8%	0.2	K 24.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.57
2027PROJ	31	MLBCLE	10	10	60	4.62	4.64	22.3%	9.9%	0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCLE	4	4	21	4.79	4.90	21.5%	10.3%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBCLE	5	5	28	5.02	5.18	20.6%	10.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%41

FB Velo40

K%27

xwOBA vs12

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Mitch Lively (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.64

K%22.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

CU (7%)

SL-3.1 (25%)

FB-3.8 (51%)

CH-3.8 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	23	23	112	465	147	40	6	100%	4.9	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	1.7%	3.78	3.36	—
2018	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	23	23	112	465	147	40	6	100%	4.9	31.6%	8.6%	23.0%	1.3%	3.78	2.24	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	71	270	94	16	4	100%	4.7	27.4%	6.3%	21.1%	1.4%	2.03	2.33	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	71	270	94	16	4	100%	4.7	34.8%	5.9%	28.9%	1.5%	2.03	1.86	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	6	6	24	113	23	10	6	100%	4.1	20.4%	8.8%	11.5%	5.0%	5.92	5.22	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	6	6	24	113	23	10	6	100%	4.1	20.4%	8.8%	11.5%	5.3%	5.92	5.65	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	73	323	83	36	8	85%	2.8	24.5%	11.3%	13.3%	2.4%	5.52	3.76	+1.0
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	73	323	83	36	8	85%	2.8	25.7%	11.1%	14.6%	2.5%	5.52	3.73	+1.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	97	433	105	39	18	83%	4.0	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	4.2%	5.77	4.69	+0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	97	433	105	39	18	83%	4.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	4.2%	5.77	4.56	+0.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	24	109	36	10	9	13%	1.6	32.1%	6.9%	25.2%	9.5%	7.40	6.48	-0.5
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	24	109	36	10	9	13%	1.6	33.0%	9.2%	23.9%	8.3%	7.40	6.18	-0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	4.3%	6.45	4.57	-0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	4.3%	6.45	4.57	-0.0
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	27.2%	9.8%	17.4%	4.1%	6.45	4.38	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	32	144	683	136	68	31	68%	3.1	19.9%	10.0%	10.0%	4.5%	7.00	5.43	-0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CLE	10	10	60	253	56	25	8	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	3.3%	4.62	4.64	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	56	236	51	24	8	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.79	4.90	0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	51	217	45	23	8	100%	5.7	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.8%	5.02	5.18	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	21	89	19	9	3	100%	5.2	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.79	4.90	0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	28	118	24	13	4	100%	5.6	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.8%	5.02	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	40	193	889	179	90	39	73%	3.5	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	4.3%	6.47	5.06	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		57	42	200	922	186	93	40	73%	3.5	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	4.3%	6.47	5.06	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		140	101	492	2132	518	197	71	72%	3.5	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.4%	4.95	4.06	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	866	211	80	29	72%	3.5	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.4%	4.95	4.06	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Howard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	22.3%	9.9%	3.3%	—	5.03	21.1%	10.6%	107	+0.39	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	78
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	69
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	64
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	64
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	64
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	63
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	63
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	62
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	62
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	61
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	60
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	60
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	60
Randy Wynne R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	31	SP-	5.75	13.6%	6.0%	5.5%	.283	6.55	10.7%	7.2%	60	+0.80	4.35	461	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	45	20.7%	10.2%	1.55	5.82
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Elmer Singleton ('45-'59, -0 WAR*)	1.6	55	21.5%*	9.3%*	1.40*	5.08*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*