Chris McMahon prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Chris McMahon P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 217 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%20.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	22	20	114	485	119	32	13	91%	5.2	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.17	3.98	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	22	20	114	485	119	32	13	91%	5.2	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	2.7%	4.17	3.34	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	6	29	129	25	5	5	75%	3.6	15.4%	2.9%	12.5%	4.7%	5.34	4.77	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	6	29	129	25	5	5	75%	3.6	19.4%	3.9%	15.5%	3.9%	5.34	4.15	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	15	15	67	313	66	25	13	100%	4.5	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	4.8%	5.91	5.40	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	15	15	67	313	66	25	13	100%	4.5	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	4.8%	5.91	5.40	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	15	15	67	313	66	25	13	100%	4.5	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	4.2%	5.91	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	9.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	46	192	39	18	6	100%	5.7	20.5%	9.2%	11.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.66	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	44	184	38	17	6	100%	6.2	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	COL	3	3	17	72	15	7	2	100%	5.7	20.5%	9.2%	11.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.66	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	4	4	24	101	21	10	3	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	41	174	36	16	6	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.3%	4.67	4.34	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	77	29	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.3%	4.67	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		45	41	210	927	165	68	35	91%	4.7	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.7%	4.89	4.57	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	883	157	65	33	91%	4.7	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.7%	4.89	4.57	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris McMahon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	20.3%	9.0%	3.1%	—	4.71	20.5%	11.2%	89	+0.10	—	—	—
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	81
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	80
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	79
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	78
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	77
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	75
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	74
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	74
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	74
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	74
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	73
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	73
Stephen Fife R 2013 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	17.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.330	3.11	18.8%	10.7%	27	-0.83	3.11	264	73
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	72
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	72
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	72
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	20.5%	9.2%	1.24	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01