Braden Zarbnisky prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Braden Zarbnisky P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 191 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%22.9%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	49	201	51	13	11	0%	1.6	20.6%	6.1%	14.5%	5.6%	4.20	5.22	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	49	201	51	13	11	0%	1.6	25.4%	6.5%	18.9%	5.5%	4.20	4.72	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	30	1	43	181	53	14	14	3%	1.4	23.7%	8.5%	15.2%	8.8%	4.60	7.02	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	30	1	43	181	53	14	14	3%	1.4	29.3%	7.7%	21.5%	7.7%	4.60	5.84	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	55	241	66	25	10	0%	1.2	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	4.6%	4.58	5.07	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	55	241	66	25	10	0%	1.2	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	4.6%	4.58	5.07	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	55	241	66	25	10	0%	1.2	27.4%	10.4%	17.0%	4.1%	4.58	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	34	0	35	149	34	15	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.58	4.65	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	10	0	11	46	11	5	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.58	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	11	5	2	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.58	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	90	36	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.58	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		104	1	147	623	139	53	38	1%	1.4	22.3%	8.5%	13.7%	6.2%	4.46	5.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	1	200	846	188	72	52	1%	1.4	22.3%	8.5%	13.7%	6.2%	4.46	5.69	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Zarbnisky (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	22.9%	9.8%	3.1%	—	4.65	22.7%	12.6%	35	+0.16	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	90
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	89
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	86
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	83
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	83
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	83
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	80
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	80
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	22.8%	9.9%	1.24	4.53
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99