Braden Zarbnisky
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 191 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.8%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 30 | 0 | 49 | 201 | 51 | 13 | 11 | 20.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.20 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 30 | 1 | 43 | 181 | 53 | 14 | 14 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.60 | 7.09 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 44 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 66 | 25 | 10 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 4.7% | 4.58 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 1 | 147 | 623 | 139 | 55 | 39 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.46 | 5.75 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 189 | 75 | 53 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.46 | 5.75 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braden Zarbnisky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.54 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 151 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 89 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 88 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 87 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 86 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 85 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 84 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 84 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 84 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.92 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .272 | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.30 | 3.62 | 224 | 84 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 84 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 83 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 83 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.22 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .259 | 3.21 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.01 | 2.80 | 410 | 82 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 82 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 82 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.40 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.44 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.04 | 2.83 | 432 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 82 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.10 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .281 | 7.47 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.48 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.23 | 3.25 | 150 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.