Dayeison Arias
P
Arkansas Travelers
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%23.2%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 25 | 0 | 29 | 115 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 1.2% | 3.41 | 2.93 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 25 | 0 | 29 | 115 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.3% | 6.1% | 25.2% | 0.9% | 3.41 | 1.79 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 55 | 210 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.2% | 8.3% | 19.8% | 2.1% | 1.15 | 2.91 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 55 | 210 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.1% | 7.1% | 31.0% | 1.4% | 1.15 | 1.72 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 44 | 187 | 69 | 20 | 6 | 3% | 1.4 | 29.1% | 12.0% | 17.1% | 4.0% | 2.66 | 4.33 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 44 | 187 | 69 | 20 | 6 | 3% | 1.4 | 36.9% | 10.7% | 26.2% | 3.2% | 2.66 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 33 | 1 | 33 | 137 | 42 | 17 | 3 | 3% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 3.03 | 4.50 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 33 | 1 | 33 | 137 | 42 | 17 | 3 | 3% | 1.0 | 30.7% | 12.4% | 18.2% | 2.2% | 3.03 | 3.28 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 41 | 0 | 51 | 231 | 61 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 17.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 4.62 | 4.74 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 41 | 0 | 51 | 231 | 61 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.4% | 16.0% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 4.62 | 3.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 31 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 78 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 175 | 2 | 211 | 880 | 221 | 108 | 23 | 1% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 2.90 | 3.94 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 2 | 200 | 833 | 210 | 102 | 21 | 1% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 2.90 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dayeison Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.60 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 33 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 86 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 85 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 84 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 84 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 84 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 82 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 82 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 81 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 81 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 81 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 81 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 81 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 81 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 34 | 23.0% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |