Connor Lunn prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Connor Lunn P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%18.9%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	23	120	492	121	20	12	96%	5.0	18.9%	4.7%	14.3%	2.9%	3.96	3.67	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	23	120	492	121	20	12	96%	5.0	24.6%	4.1%	20.5%	2.4%	3.96	2.88	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	21	17	82	369	78	24	15	81%	3.9	17.1%	7.2%	10.0%	4.6%	6.61	5.06	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	21	17	82	369	78	24	15	81%	3.9	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	4.1%	6.61	4.46	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	23	130	554	111	31	17	92%	5.2	16.2%	6.2%	10.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.38	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	23	130	554	111	31	17	92%	5.2	16.2%	6.2%	10.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.38	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	23	130	554	111	31	17	92%	5.2	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	3.1%	4.71	3.81	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	4	0	5	18	5	3	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	3.86	2.87	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	4	0	5	18	5	3	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	3.86	2.87	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	4	0	5	18	5	3	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	3.86	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	7.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	86	363	69	27	12	100%	6.1	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.57	+0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	81	341	64	27	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	75	318	66	23	11	100%	5.8	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	3.6%	4.62	4.63	+0.2
2030	32	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	70	294	60	23	11	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	3.8%	4.76	4.85	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	27	114	22	9	4	100%	6.8	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.57	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	42	177	33	14	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	49	207	43	15	7	100%	6.1	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	3.6%	4.62	4.63	+0.2
2030	32	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	52	220	44	17	8	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	3.8%	4.76	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	169	715	142	54	25	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.33	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	64	30	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		74	63	337	1433	251	86	50	85%	4.5	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.29	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	851	149	51	30	85%	4.5	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.29	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Lunn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	18.9%	7.2%	3.0%	—	4.64	19.5%	11.9%	242	+0.18	—	—	—
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	85
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	83
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	82
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	80
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	80
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	80
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	79
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	77
Miguel González R 2012 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP	4.05	17.7%	7.6%	2.7%	.254	4.41	16.9%	9.5%	475	+0.36	3.72	905	77
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	76
Jeremy Kehrt R 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SP	3.37	15.2%	5.3%	1.6%	.297	4.25	12.1%	3.9%	143	+0.88	3.37	262	76
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	75
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	75
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	75
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	75
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	75
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	75
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	74
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	80	19.5%	7.5%	1.31	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Brad Lincoln ('14)	1.1	56	17.4%	7.9%	1.30	4.74
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Taylor Buchholz ('11)	1.6	78	17.7%	6.6%	1.19	4.28
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92