Gabriel Yanez
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.5
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.11
FIP4.11
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%12.4%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 15 | 3 | 35 | 164 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 13.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 6.43 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 7 | 3 | 20 | 80 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11.9% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 1.33 | 2.69 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 29 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 56 | 18 | 5 | 23.5% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 2.32 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 33 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 3.22 | 3.25 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 37 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 69 | 14 | 3 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 4.83 | 3.11 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 38 | 0 | 56 | 228 | 49 | 16 | 1 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 0.5% | 2.26 | 2.99 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 37 | 0 | 60 | 247 | 56 | 17 | 2 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 4.50 | 3.17 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 199 | 6 | 328 | 1371 | 249 | 92 | 26 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 3.46 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 4 | 200 | 837 | 152 | 56 | 16 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 3.46 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Yanez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.22 | 20.6% | 12.4% | 158 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 91 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 87 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.14 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.27 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.91 | 183 | 87 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 85 |
| Dan Jennings L 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.06 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.1% | .294 | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 188 | +0.73 | 3.06 | 244 | 84 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.09 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% | .291 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.47 | 2.55 | 261 | 84 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 304 | 84 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 83 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.29 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .305 | 5.10 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +1.81 | 3.29 | 228 | 83 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 82 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .235 | 4.33 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 94 | +1.02 | 2.79 | 325 | 82 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 82 |
| Carson Skipper L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 81 |
| Franklin Morales L 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 81 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 81 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 81 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 81 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.2% | .313 | 4.88 | 13.8% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.05 | 3.03 | 200 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$3M | ||