Angel Zerpa
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 26
LHP
6'0" / 237 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 116
ERA4.21
FIP4.28
K%18.3%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p1017.8%
K%
p1014.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.405
SI (68%)
SL (21%)
FB-0.7 (73%)
CH-1.5 (6%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals | 14 | 12 | 64 | 247 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 86% | 4.5 | 10.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 1.84 | 2.90 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals | 14 | 12 | 64 | 247 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 86% | 4.5 | 15.8% | 4.5% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 1.84 | 2.39 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | 11 | 7 | 49 | 203 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 64% | 4.4 | 11.4% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.88 | 4.97 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | 11 | 7 | 49 | 203 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 64% | 4.4 | 16.7% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 3.78 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 93 | 394 | 112 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 4.1 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 3.93 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 93 | 394 | 112 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 4.1 | 28.4% | 7.4% | 21.1% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 3.02 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 21 | 83 | 350 | 72 | 28 | 9 | 95% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.70 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 21 | 83 | 350 | 72 | 28 | 9 | 95% | 3.8 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 3.70 | 3.79 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 12 | 77 | 330 | 66 | 24 | 12 | 50% | 3.2 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 4.42 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 12 | 77 | 330 | 66 | 24 | 12 | 50% | 3.2 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 65 | 280 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 3.32 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 65 | 280 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 6.8% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 3.32 | 3.39 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 69 | 2 | 65 | 275 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 3% | 0.9 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 69 | 2 | 65 | 275 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 3% | 0.9 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.39 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 116 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 40 | 171 | 29 | 16 | 6 | — | — | 17.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 40 | 169 | 29 | 16 | 6 | — | — | 17.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 46 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 41 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 340 | 8 | 379 | 1614 | 304 | 125 | 49 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.17 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 4 | 200 | 852 | 161 | 66 | 26 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 243 | 77 | 508 | 2134 | 396 | 162 | 63 | 32% | 2.1 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 3.79 | 4.12 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 30 | 200 | 840 | 156 | 64 | 25 | 32% | 2.1 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 3.79 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Angel Zerpa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.78 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 170 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 73 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.68 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .318 | 4.59 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 140 | +0.91 | 3.68 | 332 | 72 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 70 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 69 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 69 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 69 |
| David Speer L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.33 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 293 | 69 |
| Carson Teel L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.22 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 248 | 69 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 68 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 68 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.49 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.30 | 4.19 | 151 | 68 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 258 | 68 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 68 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 68 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 68 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 68 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .269 | 3.89 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.18 | 3.86 | 161 | 67 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 200 | 67 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .241 | 4.69 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.22 | 3.47 | 315 | 67 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 18.5% | 8.5% | 1.22 | 4.67 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |