Angel Zerpa
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 26
LHP
6'0" / 237 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.25
FIP4.26
xFIP4.60
SIERA4.70
K%21.3%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%13.3%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF3030
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†5050
SI (68%)
SL (21%)
FB-0.7 (73%)
CH-1.5 (6%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals | 14 | 12 | 64 | 247 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 10.7% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 1.84 | 2.90 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | 11 | 7 | 49 | 203 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 11.4% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 3.88 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 23 | 23 | 93 | 394 | 112 | 29 | 10 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.86 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 22 | 21 | 83 | 350 | 72 | 28 | 9 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 3.70 | 4.29 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 24 | 12 | 77 | 330 | 66 | 24 | 12 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 4.42 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 68 | 0 | 65 | 280 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 3.70 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 69 | 2 | 65 | 275 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.80 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 20 | — | 20 | 83 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 30 | 124 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 2.92 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 18.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 38 | 20 | 7 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 35 | 19 | 7 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 14.9% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 5.17 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 5.31 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 13.4% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.47 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 77 | 505 | 2120 | 392 | 160 | 59 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 4.02 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 30 | 200 | 839 | 155 | 63 | 23 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Angel Zerpa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 18.3% | 9.9% | 173 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 77 |
| Nolan Becker L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .313 | 5.48 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13 | +1.32 | 3.71 | 105 | 73 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.44 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 102 | -1.30 | 2.81 | 344 | 73 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.70 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .318 | 4.65 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 140 | +0.95 | 3.70 | 332 | 73 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 72 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 72 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 72 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 72 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 72 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .349 | 3.52 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.22 | 3.50 | 383 | 71 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 71 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 71 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .336 | 4.31 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.51 | 3.80 | 113 | 71 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 71 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 71 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 120 | 71 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 71 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.48 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .270 | 4.47 | 13.1% | 4.3% | 91 | +0.99 | 3.48 | 223 | 71 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.31 | 16.3% | 6.2% | 1.5% | .250 | 3.54 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 95 | +0.23 | 3.24 | 163 | 71 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.