Angel Zerpa — OGILVIE

Angel Zerpa P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 237 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.18

FIP4.26

K%18.3%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p1014.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.405

SI (68%)

SL (21%)

FB-0.7 (73%)

CH-1.5 (6%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals	14	12	64	247	39	11	0	86%	4.5	10.7%	5.6%	5.2%	0.0%	1.84	2.90	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals	14	12	64	247	39	11	0	86%	4.5	15.8%	4.5%	11.3%	0.0%	1.84	2.39	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	11	7	49	203	34	12	5	64%	4.4	11.4%	7.4%	4.0%	3.4%	3.88	4.97	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	11	7	49	203	34	12	5	64%	4.4	16.7%	5.9%	10.8%	2.5%	3.88	3.78	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	23	93	394	112	29	10	100%	4.1	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	3.1%	4.34	3.88	+1.1
2021	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	23	93	394	112	29	10	100%	4.1	28.4%	7.4%	21.1%	2.5%	4.34	3.02	+2.2
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	83	350	72	28	9	95%	3.8	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.3%	3.70	4.29	+0.6
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	83	350	72	28	9	95%	3.8	20.6%	8.0%	12.6%	2.6%	3.70	3.79	+1.1
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	12	77	330	66	24	12	50%	3.2	18.4%	6.6%	11.8%	4.1%	4.42	4.63	+0.2
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	12	77	330	66	24	12	50%	3.2	18.4%	6.6%	11.8%	4.1%	4.42	4.63	+0.2
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	12	77	330	66	24	12	50%	3.2	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.6%	4.42	4.34	+0.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	65	280	58	19	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.1%	13.4%	2.7%	3.32	3.76	+0.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	65	280	58	19	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.1%	13.4%	2.7%	3.32	3.76	+0.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	65	280	58	19	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	6.8%	13.9%	2.1%	3.32	3.39	+0.9
2025	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	69	2	65	275	58	22	7	3%	0.9	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.18	3.84	+0.5
2025	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	69	2	65	275	58	22	7	3%	0.9	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.18	3.84	+0.5
2025	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	69	2	65	275	58	22	7	3%	0.9	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	2.5%	4.18	3.73	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	8	190	815	158	57	24	5%	1.2	19.4%	7.0%	12.4%	2.9%	4.13	3.98	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	13	55	8	6	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	3.5%	6.39	5.15	-0.1
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	13	55	8	6	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	3.5%	6.39	5.15	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	MIL	12	0	13	55	8	6	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	3.6%	6.39	5.25	-0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	MIL	12	0	13	55	8	6	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	3.6%	6.39	5.25	-0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.26	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.26	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	14	59	9	6	2	—	—	14.8%	10.7%	4.1%	3.6%	6.23	5.09	-0.1
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	14	58	9	6	2	—	—	15.2%	11.0%	4.2%	3.7%	6.23	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	56	0	59	248	46	21	8	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.1%	4.63	4.68	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	57	241	44	21	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.5%	9.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.76	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	53	0	56	236	44	20	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.1%	4.63	4.68	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	51	0	54	228	42	19	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.5%	9.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		266	8	301	1284	245	97	39	3%	1.1	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.33	4.10	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	5	200	854	163	65	26	3%	1.1	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.33	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		243	77	508	2134	395	160	61	32%	2.1	18.5%	7.5%	11.0%	2.9%	3.79	4.06	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	30	200	840	156	63	24	32%	2.1	18.5%	7.5%	11.0%	2.9%	3.79	4.06	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Zerpa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	19.3%	7.9%	3.0%	—	4.72	18.5%	10.0%	116	+0.22	—	—	—
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	73
Cam Alldred L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	19.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.318	4.56	18.0%	8.6%	140	+0.86	3.70	332	72
Ian Krol L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	20.6%	9.8%	3.7%	.298	3.44	22.1%	12.0%	102	-1.22	2.80	344	70
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	69
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	69
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	69
David Speer L 2019 · 4.06 FIP	26	SU	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	2.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	293	69
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	69
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	68
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	68
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	68
Patrick McCoy L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.336	4.28	15.4%	1.6%	44	+0.47	3.81	113	68
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	68
Jake Palisch L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	21.0%	8.2%	3.4%	.304	4.64	11.2%	3.0%	274	+0.44	3.88	317	68
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	67
Nolan Becker L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SU	4.17	13.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.313	5.41	18.9%	14.6%	13	+1.24	3.71	105	67
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	67
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	67
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	67
Josh Osich L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	26	SU	3.41	21.2%	7.0%	2.2%	.241	4.68	18.1%	7.1%	137	+1.27	3.41	315	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	18.7%	8.3%	1.20	4.59
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41