Angel Zerpa

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 237 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	68	0	65	3.32	3.39	20.7%	6.8%	0.9	K 20.5% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.76
2025	25	MLBKC	69	2	65	4.18	3.73	21.1%	8.0%	0.6
2026	26	MLBMIL	12	0	13	6.39	5.31	14.5%	10.9%	-0.1
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIL	33	0	35	4.59	4.70	18.4%	8.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBMIL	29	0	30	4.71	4.79	18.3%	9.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIL	18	0	19	4.85	4.95	17.7%	9.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo64

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsDan Meyer (age 27) · Josh Outman (age 27) · Everett Teaford (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.59

FIP4.70

K%18.4%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p1014.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.405

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals	14	12	64	247	39	11	0	86%	4.5	10.7%	5.6%	5.2%	0.0%	1.84	2.90	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals	14	12	64	247	39	11	0	86%	4.5	15.8%	4.5%	11.3%	0.0%	1.84	2.39	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	11	7	49	203	34	12	5	64%	4.4	11.4%	7.4%	4.0%	3.4%	3.88	4.97	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	11	7	49	203	34	12	5	64%	4.4	16.7%	5.9%	10.8%	2.5%	3.88	3.78	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	23	93	394	112	29	10	100%	4.1	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	3.1%	4.34	3.88	+1.7
2021	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	23	93	394	112	29	10	100%	4.1	28.4%	7.4%	21.1%	2.5%	4.34	3.02	+2.7
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	83	350	72	28	9	95%	3.8	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.3%	3.70	4.29	+1.1
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	83	350	72	28	9	95%	3.8	20.6%	8.0%	12.6%	2.6%	3.70	3.79	+1.6
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	12	77	330	66	24	12	50%	3.2	18.7%	6.6%	12.1%	4.1%	4.42	4.61	+0.7
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	12	77	330	66	24	12	50%	3.2	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.6%	4.42	4.34	+1.0
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	65	280	58	19	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.1%	13.4%	2.7%	3.32	3.76	+0.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	65	280	58	19	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.1%	13.4%	2.7%	3.32	3.76	+0.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	65	280	58	19	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	6.8%	13.9%	2.1%	3.32	3.39	+0.9
2025	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	69	2	65	275	58	22	7	3%	0.9	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.18	3.84	+0.5
2025	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	69	2	65	275	58	22	7	3%	0.9	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.18	3.84	+0.5
2025	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	69	2	65	275	58	22	7	3%	0.9	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	2.5%	4.18	3.73	+0.6
2026	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	13	55	8	6	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	3.5%	6.39	5.15	-0.1
2026	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	13	55	8	6	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	3.5%	6.39	5.15	-0.1
2026	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	13	55	8	6	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	3.6%	6.39	5.31	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	8	190	815	158	57	24	5%	1.2	19.4%	7.0%	12.4%	2.9%	4.13	3.98	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIL	33	0	35	148	27	13	4	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	31	0	32	136	25	12	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	3.1%	4.71	4.79	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	85	15	8	3	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.2%	8.5%	3.3%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	29	0	30	127	23	11	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	3.1%	4.71	4.79	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIL	18	0	19	80	14	7	3	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.2%	8.5%	3.3%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	8	239	1024	196	76	31	4%	1.2	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.26	4.07	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		173	7	200	856	164	64	26	4%	1.2	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.26	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		243	77	508	2134	396	160	61	32%	2.1	18.5%	7.5%	11.1%	2.9%	3.79	4.06	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	30	200	840	156	63	24	32%	2.1	18.5%	7.5%	11.1%	2.9%	3.79	4.06	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 11 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.06 (+0.20)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.860	18.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×0.900	4.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 27 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.13 (+0.41)K% 19.7% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.66%	—	×0.860	16.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷0.942	×1.100	3.99%

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 8 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.34 (+1.15)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.810	18.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.100	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.872	×1.200	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 64 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.29 (+0.94)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.82%	—	×0.810	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.100	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.905	×1.200	3.34%

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 8 IPFIP 4.91 → 5.00 (+0.09)K% 0.0% → 0.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	0.00%	—	×0.880	0.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.050	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 4.91 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 45 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.99 (+1.04)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.00%	—	×0.810	21.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.100	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷0.957	×1.200	4.39%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 42 IPFIP 1.68 → 2.55 (+0.86)K% 31.7% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.74%	—	×0.770	24.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.79%	—	×1.150	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.013	×1.250	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.68 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Royals · 49 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.97 (+1.18)K% 16.7% → 11.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.75%	—	×0.680	11.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.250	7.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Zerpa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	18.4%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.85	18.1%	9.0%	52	+0.15	—	—	—
Dan Meyer L 2008 · 5.66 FIP	27	SW	5.66	15.2%	10.6%	4.5%	.315	3.73	23.1%	15.2%	58	-1.93	3.73	112	70
Josh Outman L 2012 · 4.49 FIP	27	SW	4.49	21.6%	10.8%	3.4%	.339	3.46	22.0%	12.2%	82	-1.03	2.95	380	69
Everett Teaford L 2011 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	16.0%	8.0%	4.9%	.224	5.47	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.00	4.42	208	67
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	66
Scott Eyre L 2000 · 5.05 FIP	28	SU	5.05	17.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.419	3.58	16.7%	7.7%	147	-1.47	2.18	649	66
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	66
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	65
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	65
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	427	65
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	65
Billy Traber L 2007 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	14.8%	5.5%	2.2%	.326	4.95	13.8%	6.3%	17	+1.20	3.75	211	65
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	64
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	64
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	64
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	64
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	64
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	64
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	63
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	63
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	19.0%	7.8%	1.16	4.31
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*