Connor Thomas
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.9
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP4.97
SIERA4.39
K%19.8%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%12.1%
IP90
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†4550
FB (42%)
SI (38%)
SL-1.2 (17%)
CT-2.4 (23%)
CH-3.4 (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 10 | 2 | 27 | 111 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 12.7% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 3.62 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 26 | 18 | 122 | 524 | 116 | 33 | 16 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 3.39 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 28 | 25 | 135 | 614 | 110 | 40 | 16 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 5.47 | 4.13 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 21 | 17 | 94 | 440 | 69 | 31 | 10 | 13.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 5.53 | 4.31 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 56 | 3 | 90 | 383 | 79 | 23 | 8 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 2.89 | 3.61 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | 19.89 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 76 | 29 | 11 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 74 | 29 | 11 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 72 | 29 | 11 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 69 | 28 | 10 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 72 | 25 | 10 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.28 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 68 | 24 | 10 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 63 | 23 | 10 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 59 | 23 | 10 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 54 | 22 | 9 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 37 | MLB | STL | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 49 | 21 | 9 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 144 | 65 | 475 | 2110 | 346 | 147 | 61 | 16.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.18 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 27 | 200 | 888 | 146 | 62 | 26 | 16.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Thomas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 19.9% | 12.0% | 257 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.80 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 311 | 63 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.82 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.58 | 3.24 | 298 | 62 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 353 | 61 |
| Adam Conley L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .272 | 4.46 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 111 | +0.10 | 3.56 | 674 | 61 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.37 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.07 | 3.37 | 393 | 59 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 59 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.40 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .326 | 3.70 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 91 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 461 | 58 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 58 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .321 | 7.14 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +3.17 | 3.97 | 165 | 57 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 57 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 57 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 56 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 56 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.85 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 491 | 56 |
| Zach Logue L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.78 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 700 | 56 |
| Chris Reed L 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.70 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 137 | 56 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 55 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 55 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.52 | 12.9% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .303 | 3.12 | 19.3% | 10.2% | 26 | -1.40 | 3.12 | 217 | 54 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 54 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $17M | +$7M | ||