Connor Thomas

P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAASTL	56	3	90	2.89	3.27	20.6%	6.0%	—	K 17.7% · BB 5.4% · FIP 3.52
2025	27	MIX2 levels	3	0	6	19.89	9.10	13.2%	7.9%	-0.3	K 13.2% · BB 7.9% · FIP 7.32
2026	28	MIX3 levels	39	2	67	4.16	3.91	18.9%	8.2%	0.5	K 15.8% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	108	0	113	4.52	4.65	16.5%	7.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	30	MLBKC	63	0	66	4.68	4.81	16.4%	8.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ85% MLB	31	MLBKC	40	0	42	4.86	5.00	16.1%	8.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs39

FB Velo11

K%10

Form2.93 ERA (proj 4.52) · K 17.5% (proj 16.5%) · BB 4.8% (proj 7.8%) ▲ last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJohn Rheinecker (age 28) · Kyle Hunter (age 28) · Everett Teaford (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 122

ERA4.52

FIP4.65

K%16.5%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP155

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p2121.2%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	10	2	27	111	19	9	2	20%	2.7	12.7%	9.6%	3.1%	2.1%	3.62	4.41	—
2019	21	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	10	2	27	111	19	9	2	20%	2.7	17.1%	8.1%	9.0%	1.8%	3.62	3.65	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	122	524	116	33	16	69%	4.7	19.2%	6.6%	12.5%	3.6%	3.39	4.29	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	122	524	116	33	16	69%	4.7	22.1%	6.3%	15.8%	3.1%	3.39	3.71	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	28	25	135	614	110	40	16	89%	4.8	15.8%	6.8%	8.9%	2.7%	5.47	4.14	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	28	25	135	614	110	40	16	89%	4.8	17.9%	6.5%	11.4%	2.6%	5.47	3.90	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	21	17	94	440	69	31	10	81%	4.5	13.5%	6.3%	7.1%	2.6%	5.53	4.20	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	21	17	94	440	69	31	10	81%	4.5	15.7%	7.0%	8.6%	2.3%	5.53	4.00	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	56	3	90	383	79	23	8	5%	1.6	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	2.3%	2.89	3.52	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	56	3	90	383	79	23	8	5%	1.6	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	2.3%	2.89	3.52	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	56	3	90	383	79	23	8	5%	1.6	20.6%	6.0%	14.6%	2.1%	2.89	3.27	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	6	38	5	3	3	0%	2.1	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%	7.9%	19.89	7.32	-0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	6	38	5	3	3	0%	2.1	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%	7.9%	19.89	7.32	-0.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	6	38	5	3	3	0%	2.1	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%	7.9%	19.89	9.10	-0.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	2	67	280	53	23	7	5%	1.7	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.16	4.27	+0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	2	67	280	53	23	7	5%	1.7	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.16	4.27	+0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	2	67	280	53	23	7	5%	1.7	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	2.5%	4.16	3.91	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	0	31	149	23	11	7	0%	1.5	15.4%	7.4%	8.1%	4.7%	9.29	5.62	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	108	0	113	477	79	37	14	0%	1.0	16.5%	7.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.52	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	78	0	82	348	57	28	11	0%	1.1	16.4%	8.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.68	4.81	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	48	0	50	211	34	18	7	0%	1.0	16.1%	8.4%	7.7%	3.3%	4.86	5.00	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	63	0	66	279	46	22	9	0%	1.0	16.4%	8.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.68	4.81	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	40	0	42	177	28	15	6	0%	1.1	16.1%	8.4%	7.7%	3.3%	4.86	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	0	139	606	97	48	22	0%	1.1	16.1%	8.0%	8.1%	3.5%	5.76	4.71	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	870	139	69	32	0%	1.1	16.1%	8.0%	8.1%	3.5%	5.76	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		183	67	542	2390	388	161	69	37%	3.0	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.16	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	25	200	881	143	59	25	37%	3.0	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.16	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 30 IPFIP 3.54 → 3.75 (+0.21)K% 19.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.97%	—	×0.860	16.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×0.900	7.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 11 IPFIP 3.01 → 4.02 (+1.01)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.770	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.150	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 90 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.52 (+0.26)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.860	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.01%	—	×0.900	5.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷1.020	×1.100	2.25%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 94 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.20 (+0.29)K% 15.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.68%	—	×0.860	13.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×0.900	6.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.955	×1.100	2.62%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 135 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.14 (+0.29)K% 17.9% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.92%	—	×0.880	15.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.51%	—	×1.050	6.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.048	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 102 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.05 (+0.48)K% 21.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.10%	—	×0.880	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.050	7.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.949	×1.100	2.93%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 20 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.49 (+1.14)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.41%	—	×1.100	3.75%
HR / BF /BF	5.68%	÷0.990	×1.200	6.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 APeoria Chiefs · 27 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.41 (+0.74)K% 17.1% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.12%	—	×0.740	12.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.180	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.105	×1.300	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Thomas (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.88	16.3%	8.1%	132	+0.23	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	65
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	64
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	64
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	63
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	62
Kyle Hart L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	29	SW	5.24	17.4%	9.9%	4.3%	.286	4.29	18.4%	9.5%	196	-0.95	3.60	886	62
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	62
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	62
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	62
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	61
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.02	369	61
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	60
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	59
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	295	59
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	59
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	58
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	58
Sean Gilmartin L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	29	SU	4.21	24.1%	8.9%	3.7%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	386	58
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	57
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	80	16.3%	7.9%	1.24	5.08
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Mike Griffin ('79-'89, 0 WAR*)	1.0	68	15.9%*	7.9%*	1.02*	4.87*
Philip Humber ('13)	1.9	93	16.7%	7.9%	1.29	5.31
Sal Romano ('21)	1.4	92	17.2%	8.9%	1.34	5.23
John Montague ('73-'80, -2 WAR*)	2.7	91	17.0%*	9.3%*	1.23*	4.98*
Kyle Snyder ('08)	1.2	59	14.7%	7.9%	1.29	5.57