Connor Thomas
P
Rome Emperors
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION63 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP4.97
SIERA4.39
K%18.2%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%10.5%
IP63
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
FB (42%)
SI (38%)
SL-1.2 (17%)
CT-2.4 (23%)
CH-3.4 (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 10 | 2 | 27 | 111 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 12.7% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 3.62 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 26 | 18 | 122 | 524 | 116 | 33 | 16 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.39 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 28 | 25 | 135 | 614 | 110 | 40 | 16 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 5.47 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 21 | 17 | 94 | 440 | 69 | 31 | 10 | 13.8% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 4.38 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 56 | 3 | 90 | 383 | 79 | 23 | 8 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 2.89 | 3.58 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 19.89 | 7.32 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 11 | 1 | 23 | 83 | 19 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 86 | 350 | 68 | 28 | 8 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 3.27 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 47 | 21 | 8 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 18.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 41 | 20 | 8 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 17.6% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.20 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.46 | 5.64 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 25 | 17 | 7 | 16.4% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 5.75 | 5.94 | -0.6 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 15.7% | 11.4% | 4.9% | 6.07 | 6.28 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 66 | 498 | 2193 | 366 | 154 | 62 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.14 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 27 | 200 | 881 | 147 | 62 | 25 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Thomas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.72 | 18.5% | 10.0% | 170 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Paul Oseguera L 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 47 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .245 | 4.31 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 215 | +0.59 | 3.36 | 764 | 45 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 45 |
| Frank Garces L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.56 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 306 | 44 |
| Adam Conley L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .272 | 4.50 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 111 | +0.12 | 3.56 | 674 | 43 |
| Brad Mills L 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 43 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 43 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.33 | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .278 | 4.14 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 423 | -0.19 | 4.01 | 642 | 43 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 311 | 43 |
| Yohan Flande L 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.45 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.24 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.21 | 3.16 | 335 | 42 |
| Mike Belfiore L 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 12.0% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 135 | 42 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2023 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 42 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 42 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 41 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 41 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.05 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .295 | 3.80 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 149 | -0.25 | 3.80 | 412 | 41 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 41 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 41 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 41 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 76 | +0.09 | 3.75 | 324 | 41 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.