Jackson Rutledge
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'8" / 241 lbs
AAA
ERA5.51
FIP5.21
xFIP5.68
SIERA4.38
K%20.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.3%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p5025.3%
K%
p3219.6%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
SI (27%)
CT-0.9 (45%)
FB-0.9 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 7 | 7 | 28 | 115 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 2.82 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 13 | 13 | 36 | 172 | 41 | 20 | 2 | 17.3% | 13.4% | 0.7% | 7.68 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 20 | 20 | 97 | 423 | 99 | 29 | 7 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.90 | 3.78 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 27 | 27 | 139 | 585 | 118 | 61 | 16 | 17.3% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 28 | 131 | 597 | 137 | 79 | 18 | 20.0% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 6.20 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 65 | 0 | 76 | 340 | 69 | 25 | 16 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.54 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 7 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 14.21 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 59 | 27 | 11 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.59 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 71 | 308 | 62 | 34 | 12 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 6.36 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 59 | 27 | 11 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 57 | 27 | 11 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 5.23 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 54 | 26 | 11 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 5.26 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 50 | 26 | 10 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 47 | 25 | 10 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 5.43 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 43 | 24 | 10 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 5.55 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 40 | 24 | 10 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 4.4% | 5.68 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 36 | 23 | 9 | 17.4% | 11.1% | 4.6% | 5.82 | 5.92 | -0.5 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 32 | 22 | 9 | 16.7% | 11.4% | 4.7% | 5.98 | 6.08 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 169 | 95 | 514 | 2268 | 418 | 254 | 66 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 4.56 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 37 | 200 | 882 | 163 | 99 | 26 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Rutledge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 4.0% | — | 5.19 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 189 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 82 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 81 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 81 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 80 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 80 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 206 | 78 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.14 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 436 | 78 |
| Luke Bard R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.62 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .320 | 4.55 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 68 | -0.07 | 2.87 | 388 | 78 |
| Brett McKinney R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 78 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.12 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.89 | 21.7% | 15.4% | 96 | -0.23 | 2.35 | 297 | 77 |
| Braden Zarbnisky R 2025 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.17 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 4.7% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.17 | 142 | 77 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 77 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 77 |
| Branden Kline R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.44 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 167 | 77 |
| Bo Schultz R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 77 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 3.3% | .248 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 14.6% | 50 | -0.12 | 4.01 | 283 | 76 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.