Dylan Bice prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dylan Bice P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 245 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%20.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	13	0	22	109	23	7	1	0%	1.7	14.3%	8.0%	6.3%	1.3%	5.73	3.61	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	13	0	22	109	23	7	1	0%	1.7	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	0.9%	5.73	2.55	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	10	6	39	167	40	21	2	60%	3.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.6%	1.7%	4.58	4.64	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	10	6	39	167	40	21	2	60%	3.9	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	1.2%	4.58	3.33	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	0.8	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.34	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	0.8	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	15	59	24	5	1	10%	1.5	40.7%	8.5%	32.2%	1.7%	1.84	1.67	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	15	59	24	5	1	10%	1.5	40.7%	8.5%	32.2%	1.7%	1.84	1.74	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	242	55	26	7	0%	1.5	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	3.7%	2.88	5.06	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	242	55	26	7	0%	1.5	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.9%	2.88	4.09	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	0	31	134	33	18	5	0%	1.3	19.9%	14.8%	5.2%	4.3%	5.23	5.63	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	0	31	134	33	18	5	0%	1.3	24.6%	13.4%	11.2%	3.7%	5.23	4.81	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	54	244	54	25	11	5%	1.3	18.3%	10.2%	8.0%	4.9%	5.13	5.54	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	54	244	54	25	11	5%	1.3	18.3%	10.2%	8.0%	4.9%	5.13	5.54	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	2	54	244	54	25	11	5%	1.3	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	4.5%	5.13	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.1%	4.70	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	34	0	36	152	31	15	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.2%	4.74	4.79	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	10	0	11	46	9	5	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.2%	4.74	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	10	5	2	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.2%	4.74	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	89	36	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.2%	4.74	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		141	9	224	967	185	113	32	6%	1.6	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.77	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	8	200	863	165	101	28	6%	1.6	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.77	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Bice (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.2%	9.7%	3.1%	—	4.79	20.2%	10.4%	36	+0.09	—	—	—
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	87
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	85
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	83
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	82
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	82
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	82
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	20.2%	9.7%	1.23	4.72
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78