Darius Vines — OGILVIE

Darius Vines P Louisville Bats

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.06

FIP5.34

K%14.0%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.8

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.385

SL (14%)

CU (5%)

CT (11%)

CH-2.9 (31%)

FB-3.9 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	9.00	-1.12	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	9.00	-0.90	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	443	129	29	15	100%	5.0	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	4.7%	2.92	4.75	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	443	129	29	15	100%	5.0	29.1%	6.5%	22.6%	3.4%	2.92	3.32	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	141	588	156	43	17	93%	5.2	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	3.7%	3.77	4.30	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	141	588	156	43	17	93%	5.2	26.5%	7.3%	19.2%	2.9%	3.77	3.37	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	11	70	278	63	23	10	73%	4.6	16.7%	8.4%	8.3%	3.9%	2.84	4.87	+0.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	11	70	278	63	23	10	73%	4.6	16.7%	8.4%	8.3%	3.9%	2.84	4.87	+0.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	11	70	278	63	23	10	73%	4.6	22.7%	8.3%	14.4%	3.6%	2.84	4.15	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	107	462	80	34	19	90%	5.1	14.6%	7.1%	7.6%	4.6%	5.05	5.28	-0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	107	462	80	34	19	90%	5.1	14.6%	7.1%	7.6%	4.6%	5.05	5.28	-0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	19	107	462	80	34	19	90%	5.1	17.3%	7.4%	10.0%	4.1%	5.05	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	4	34	150	23	11	7	44%	3.8	15.3%	7.3%	8.0%	4.7%	5.82	5.39	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	5	0	12	54	7	7	2	0%	2.4	10.8%	11.7%	-0.9%	4.1%	7.50	5.91	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	5	0	12	54	7	7	2	0%	2.4	10.8%	11.7%	-0.9%	4.1%	7.50	5.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	CIN	5	0	12	54	7	7	2	0%	2.4	13.0%	13.0%	0.0%	3.7%	7.50	5.68	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	14.0%	8.3%	5.7%	3.6%	5.06	5.34	-0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	18	79	10	9	3	—	—	13.3%	11.5%	1.8%	3.7%	6.70	5.72	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	263	38	23	10	100%	6.2	14.4%	8.6%	5.8%	3.7%	5.22	5.39	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	58	247	35	22	10	100%	5.8	14.3%	9.0%	5.4%	3.9%	5.37	5.52	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	23	97	14	8	4	100%	5.8	14.4%	8.6%	5.8%	3.7%	5.22	5.39	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	32	135	19	12	5	100%	6.4	14.3%	9.0%	5.4%	3.9%	5.37	5.52	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	13	90	385	57	32	16	68%	4.7	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	4.1%	5.50	5.17	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	29	200	859	127	71	36	70%	4.8	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	4.1%	5.50	5.17	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		91	77	441	1829	348	142	77	85%	4.8	19.0%	7.8%	11.2%	4.2%	3.83	4.78	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	35	200	829	158	65	35	85%	4.8	19.0%	7.8%	11.2%	4.2%	3.83	4.78	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darius Vines (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	14.0%	8.3%	3.6%	—	5.45	14.4%	5.6%	121	+0.11	—	—	—
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	83
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	82
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	78
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	76
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	76
Dylan Axelrod R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	30	SP-	4.75	14.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.304	4.28	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.47	4.28	251	76
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	75
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	75
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	74
Mat Latos R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	28	SP-	4.93	13.4%	9.6%	3.2%	.279	5.66	16.8%	5.6%	41	+0.73	3.60	244	74
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	74
Andrew Triggs R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.7%	3.5%	.288	4.68	23.6%	13.7%	41	+0.30	1.66	242	73
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	73
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	72
Tyler Wagner R 2018 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	11.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	422	72
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	71
Doug Fister R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	14.0%	4.7%	3.1%	.302	4.33	16.2%	8.3%	352	+0.11	3.63	455	71
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	71
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	71
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	14.2%	8.6%	1.44	5.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77