Darius Vines
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.37
FIP4.95
xFIP5.49
SIERA4.96
K%18.7%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%10.4%
IP93
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD4040
K†3040
FB Velo
p1090.8
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p1013.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.385
SL (14%)
CU (5%)
CT (11%)
CH-2.9 (31%)
FB-3.9 (38%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Braves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 22 | 22 | 111 | 443 | 129 | 29 | 15 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 2.92 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 27 | 25 | 141 | 588 | 156 | 43 | 17 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 3.77 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 15 | 11 | 70 | 278 | 63 | 23 | 10 | 17.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 2.84 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 21 | 19 | 107 | 462 | 80 | 34 | 19 | 15.2% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 5.05 | 5.34 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 61 | 36 | 14 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 61 | 35 | 14 | 15.8% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.36 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 59 | 33 | 14 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 56 | 33 | 13 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 5.29 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 52 | 32 | 13 | 15.0% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.36 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 54 | 28 | 13 | 16.3% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 5.31 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 49 | 27 | 12 | 15.6% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 5.38 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 44 | 26 | 12 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 5.49 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 39 | 25 | 11 | 14.1% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.64 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 77 | 429 | 1775 | 347 | 142 | 75 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 3.73 | 4.78 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 36 | 200 | 827 | 162 | 66 | 35 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 3.73 | 4.78 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darius Vines (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 3.6% | — | 5.29 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 264 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 86 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 84 |
| Vance Worley R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .278 | 4.81 | 12.2% | 4.4% | 133 | +0.16 | 3.81 | 411 | 84 |
| Sam LeCure R 2029 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 84 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 82 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.77 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .304 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 133 | -0.46 | 4.31 | 251 | 82 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .283 | 4.33 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | +0.03 | 4.13 | 810 | 80 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.94 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 5.2% | .298 | 4.62 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.32 | 2.90 | 806 | 80 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 80 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 389 | 79 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.82 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.52 | 3.14 | 593 | 79 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 78 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.11 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 107 | 78 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 78 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 77 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 77 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 77 |
| Jason Berken R 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 77 |
| Tyler Wilson R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.49 | 12.1% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 377 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.