John Schreiber
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 224 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA3.92
FIP4.10
K%20.5%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p2518.5%
xwOBA vs
p380.326
CH+0.7 (9%)
CT+0.6 (13%)
SI (23%)
FB (51%)
SL-3.5 (26%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 27 | 0 | 50 | 182 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 28.5% | 4.5% | 23.9% | 0.0% | 0.54 | 1.27 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 27 | 0 | 50 | 182 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 38.5% | 3.8% | 34.6% | 0.0% | 0.54 | 0.74 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 49 | 0 | 58 | 238 | 59 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.1% | 6.5% | 13.6% | 0.8% | 2.48 | 2.68 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 49 | 0 | 58 | 238 | 59 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 5.9% | 18.9% | 0.8% | 2.48 | 2.24 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 66 | 0 | 79 | 326 | 101 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.1% | 8.8% | 18.4% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.57 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 66 | 0 | 79 | 326 | 101 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.0% | 8.6% | 22.4% | 2.5% | 2.95 | 2.92 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 4.3% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 6.32 | 3.67 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 4.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 6.32 | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 8 | 69 | 293 | 70 | 27 | 3 | 24% | 2.0 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 0.7% | 2.73 | 3.01 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 8 | 69 | 293 | 70 | 27 | 3 | 24% | 2.0 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 2.73 | 2.81 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 0 | 77 | 306 | 89 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 7.4% | 21.4% | 1.2% | 2.09 | 2.24 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 0 | 77 | 306 | 89 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 1.6% | 2.09 | 2.49 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 2 | 52 | 224 | 59 | 24 | 7 | 4% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 2 | 52 | 224 | 59 | 24 | 7 | 4% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 3.61 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 1 | 54 | 234 | 49 | 19 | 2 | 2% | 0.9 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 0.5% | 4.02 | 2.70 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 1 | 54 | 234 | 49 | 19 | 2 | 2% | 0.9 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 0.9% | 4.02 | 2.82 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 74 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 62 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 6.8% | 16.6% | 4.0% | 3.80 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 74 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 62 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 6.8% | 16.6% | 3.8% | 3.80 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 40 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 3.47 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | KC | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 3.92 | 4.10 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | KC | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 3.92 | 4.10 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | KC | — | — | 54 | 227 | 44 | 17 | 8 | — | — | 19.2% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.62 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | KC | — | — | 54 | 230 | 44 | 17 | 8 | — | — | 19.0% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 3.62 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | KC | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | KC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | KC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 31 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 5.15 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | KC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | KC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 33 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | KC | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 27 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 5.15 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 447 | 2 | 437 | 1841 | 417 | 148 | 53 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 3.79 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 205 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 191 | 68 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 489 | 11 | 556 | 2289 | 546 | 181 | 44 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.9% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 2.93 | 3.14 | +14.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 4 | 200 | 823 | 196 | 65 | 16 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.9% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 2.93 | 3.14 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Schreiber (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.02 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 136 | +0.78 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 74 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 74 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 74 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 73 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 73 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 1.38 | 4.60 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |