Raymond Burgos

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 209 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX4 levels	18	0	34	1.60	2.71	26.5%	4.5%	0.7	K 22.1% · BB 4.3% · FIP 3.48
2025	26	MIX2 levels	26	0	32	6.68	3.72	21.8%	7.7%	—	K 17.5% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.71
2026	27	MIX2 levels	26	15	91	4.93	3.89	18.6%	7.6%	1.6	K 16.6% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.05
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	30	0	32	4.30	4.47	17.5%	6.6%	0.0
2028PROJ79% MLB	29	MLBBOS	26	0	27	4.48	4.61	17.5%	7.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs88

K%32

FB Velo10

Form4.22 ERA (proj 4.30) · K 19.5% (proj 17.5%) · BB 1.2% (proj 6.6%) ▲▲ last 90d · 21 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsKyle Hunter (age 28) · Tommy Phelps (age 29) · Jimmy Reyes (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.30

FIP4.47

K%17.5%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p880.275

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	12	8	52	219	58	17	2	67%	4.4	18.0%	9.7%	8.3%	1.3%	3.78	3.51	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 1	12	8	52	219	58	17	2	67%	4.4	26.5%	7.8%	18.7%	0.9%	3.78	2.35	—
2019	20	A MLE	Lake County Captains	8	8	37	159	40	12	3	100%	4.6	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	2.5%	3.44	4.02	—
2019	20	A RAW	Lake County Captains	8	8	37	159	40	12	3	100%	4.6	25.2%	7.5%	17.6%	1.9%	3.44	2.96	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	12	55	10	4	1	67%	2.0	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	1.8%	5.25	3.48	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	12	55	10	4	1	67%	2.0	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	1.8%	5.25	3.52	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	37	0	65	262	67	22	2	0%	1.8	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	0.8%	2.08	3.12	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	37	0	65	262	67	22	2	0%	1.8	25.6%	8.4%	17.2%	0.8%	2.08	2.45	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	59	247	54	25	6	3%	1.6	18.1%	10.3%	7.7%	2.8%	3.37	4.40	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	59	247	54	25	6	3%	1.6	21.9%	10.1%	11.7%	2.4%	3.37	3.87	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	0	34	132	35	6	3	0%	1.9	22.1%	4.3%	17.8%	3.1%	1.60	3.48	+0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	0	34	132	35	6	3	0%	1.9	22.1%	4.3%	17.8%	3.1%	1.60	3.48	+0.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	0	34	132	35	6	3	0%	1.9	26.5%	4.5%	22.0%	2.3%	1.60	2.71	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	32	156	34	12	4	0%	1.2	17.5%	6.4%	11.1%	4.2%	6.68	4.71	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	32	156	34	12	4	0%	1.2	17.5%	6.4%	11.1%	4.2%	6.68	4.71	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	32	156	34	12	4	0%	1.2	21.8%	7.7%	14.1%	2.6%	6.68	3.72	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	91	397	74	30	10	58%	3.5	16.6%	6.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.93	4.05	+1.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	91	397	74	30	10	58%	3.5	16.6%	6.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.93	4.05	+1.5
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	15	91	397	74	30	10	58%	3.5	18.6%	7.6%	11.1%	2.5%	4.93	3.89	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	22	89	17	2	3	0%	2.2	19.1%	2.2%	16.9%	3.4%	4.43	3.59	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	30	0	32	135	24	9	4	0%	1.1	17.5%	6.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.30	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	33	0	35	147	26	10	5	0%	1.1	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.48	4.61	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	26	0	27	114	20	8	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.48	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	0	50	205	37	10	7	0%	1.4	18.2%	5.0%	13.2%	3.2%	4.46	3.97	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		145	0	200	823	149	40	28	0%	1.4	18.2%	5.0%	13.2%	3.2%	4.46	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		170	36	382	1627	298	133	38	21%	2.2	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%	3.77	3.88	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	19	200	852	156	70	20	21%	2.2	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	2.3%	3.77	3.88	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 70 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.15 (+0.22)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.860	15.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×0.900	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 23 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.71 (+0.49)K% 20.4% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.35%	—	×0.860	17.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.08%	—	×0.900	6.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷0.938	×1.100	4.15%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 9 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.65 (+0.53)K% 25.6% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.810	20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.100	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.183	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 27 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.48 (+0.38)K% 25.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.860	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×0.900	4.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.010	×1.100	3.11%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 37 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.77 (+0.75)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.34%	—	×0.810	19.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.87%	—	×1.100	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.906	×1.200	1.74%

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 21 IPFIP 5.23 → 5.41 (+0.17)K% 17.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.89%	—	×0.860	15.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	4.21%	÷1.057	×1.100	4.38%

Result: FIP 5.23 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 65 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.12 (+0.70)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.57%	—	×0.770	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.40%	—	×1.150	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.134	×1.250	0.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lake County Captains · 10 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.82 (+0.45)K% 17.4% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.770	13.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.150	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.222	×1.250	2.22%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raymond Burgos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	17.5%	6.6%	3.0%	—	4.61	17.5%	10.5%	35	+0.14	—	—	—
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	73
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	73
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	71
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	70
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	69
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	69
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	69
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	68
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	67
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	67
Jeremy Bleich L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	14.3%	6.3%	1.2%	.291	3.67	16.5%	10.2%	155	+0.35	3.20	241	66
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	66
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	66
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	66
David Huff L 2013 · 4.42 FIP	28	SU	4.42	20.5%	5.3%	4.3%	.248	3.76	17.1%	11.5%	169	-0.66	3.40	540	66
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	65
Reid Love L 2018 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	19.6%	7.2%	3.0%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	280	65
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	65
Kelvin Marte L 2016 · 3.44 FIP	28	SU	3.44	16.6%	7.0%	1.6%	.276	4.97	14.3%	3.1%	157	+1.53	3.44	360	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	34	17.8%	5.8%	1.20	4.39
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Cristhian Martinez ('13)	1.0	52	19.1%	6.1%	0.83	4.02
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*