A.J. Alexy

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	35	16	103	6.29	6.16	22.9%	13.7%	-1.9	K 20.7% · BB 13.5% · FIP 6.66
2023	25	AAACWS	16	4	21	12.00	9.43	17.8%	34.7%	—	K 15.3% · BB 31.3% · FIP 7.54
2024	26	AAMIN	7	3	18	6.87	5.61	17.6%	28.6%	—	K 14.2% · BB 31.4% · FIP 5.88
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIN	2	2	11	5.13	5.13	21.4%	14.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBMIN	1	1	6	5.17	5.26	20.9%	14.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.9 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

FB Velo33

Whiff%27

K%18

xwOBA vs10

CompsDerek Eitel (age 29) · Reinier Roibal (age 30) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%21.4%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.395

FB-4.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	7	3	14	58	12	3	2	43%	2.0	14.1%	6.5%	7.6%	4.8%	4.61	5.38	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	7	3	14	58	12	3	2	43%	2.0	20.7%	5.2%	15.5%	3.4%	4.61	3.90	—
2017	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	24	24	94	392	113	51	6	100%	3.9	21.3%	15.4%	6.0%	2.0%	3.53	4.32	—
2017	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	24	24	94	392	113	51	6	100%	3.9	28.8%	13.0%	15.8%	1.5%	3.53	3.15	—
2018	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	20	108	452	138	52	5	91%	4.9	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	1.2%	3.58	3.57	—
2018	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	22	20	108	452	138	52	5	91%	4.9	30.5%	11.5%	19.0%	1.1%	3.58	2.59	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	5	5	19	85	23	13	1	100%	3.9	20.8%	17.6%	3.2%	1.3%	5.12	4.27	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	5	5	19	85	23	13	1	100%	3.9	27.1%	15.3%	11.8%	1.2%	5.12	3.41	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	14	88	352	93	44	10	67%	4.2	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	2.9%	2.45	4.46	+0.4
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	14	88	352	93	44	10	67%	4.2	26.4%	12.5%	13.9%	2.8%	2.45	3.96	+1.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	103	475	109	65	26	46%	2.9	20.7%	13.5%	7.3%	6.6%	6.29	6.66	-2.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	16	103	475	109	65	26	46%	2.9	22.9%	13.7%	9.3%	5.5%	6.29	6.16	-1.9
2023	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	16	4	21	118	21	41	4	25%	1.3	15.3%	31.3%	-16.0%	3.2%	12.00	7.54	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	16	4	21	118	21	41	4	25%	1.3	17.8%	34.7%	-16.9%	3.4%	12.00	9.43	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	7	3	18	91	16	26	0	43%	2.6	14.2%	31.4%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.87	5.88	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	7	3	18	91	16	26	0	43%	2.6	14.2%	31.4%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.87	5.88	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	7	3	18	91	16	26	0	43%	2.6	17.6%	28.6%	-11.0%	0.0%	6.87	5.61	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	4	30	135	23	26	5	44%	3.3	17.0%	19.3%	-2.2%	3.7%	6.30	6.33	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIN	2	2	11	46	10	7	1	100%	5.5	21.4%	14.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	3	3	20	84	18	12	3	100%	6.7	20.9%	14.3%	6.6%	3.1%	5.17	5.26	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	1	1	6	25	5	4	1	100%	6.0	20.9%	14.3%	6.6%	3.1%	5.17	5.26	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	5	36	161	29	30	6	50%	3.6	17.7%	18.5%	-0.8%	3.6%	6.10	5.93	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		55	28	200	890	160	165	33	50%	3.6	17.7%	18.5%	-0.8%	3.6%	6.10	5.93	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		137	89	466	2023	421	316	62	65%	3.4	20.8%	15.6%	5.2%	3.1%	4.56	5.01	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	38	200	869	181	136	27	65%	3.4	20.8%	15.6%	5.2%	3.1%	4.56	5.01	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Alexy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	21.4%	14.6%	2.9%	—	5.26	20.9%	6.6%	20	+0.13	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	70
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	66
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	65
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	63
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	62
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	242	62
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	61
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	61
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	61
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	60
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	59
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	59
Mickey Callaway R 2004 · 5.21 FIP	29	SP-	5.21	15.5%	12.1%	3.5%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	126	59
Dustin McGowan R 2011 · 5.34 FIP	29	SP-	5.34	20.8%	13.5%	4.2%	.271	4.46	18.5%	9.4%	108	-0.88	3.36	690	59
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	345	59
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	58
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	20	19.1%	16.9%	1.31	5.72
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Paul Giel ('54-'61, -4 WAR*)	1.2	60	20.2%*	12.9%*	1.20*	5.80*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*