Haylen Green prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Haylen Green P Birmingham Barons

Age 28 LHP 5'11" / 185 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%21.5%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	37	14	0	0	0%	1.1	37.8%	0.0%	37.8%	0.0%	0.00	-0.10	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	10	37	14	0	0	0%	1.1	37.8%	0.0%	37.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.30	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	64	273	62	18	7	0%	1.6	16.9%	8.1%	8.8%	2.4%	4.50	4.02	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	64	273	62	18	7	0%	1.6	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	2.6%	4.50	3.43	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	1	54	245	58	26	4	2%	1.3	18.6%	10.8%	7.9%	2.2%	5.83	4.09	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	1	54	245	58	26	4	2%	1.3	18.6%	10.8%	7.9%	2.2%	5.83	4.09	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	1	54	245	58	26	4	2%	1.3	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	1.6%	5.83	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	9.9%	11.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CWS	26	0	27	116	25	12	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.65	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	CWS	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	93	23	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		91	1	128	555	106	49	12	1%	1.4	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	2.1%	4.71	3.78	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	2	200	867	165	76	19	1%	1.4	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	2.1%	4.71	3.78	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Haylen Green (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.5%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.65	21.5%	11.4%	27	+0.11	—	—	—
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	85
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	84
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	83
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	81
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	80
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	79
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	79
David Purcey L 2010 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	22.4%	9.8%	2.1%	.245	4.29	16.7%	2.7%	59	+0.69	3.60	206	79
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	79
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	194	79
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	78
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	78
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	77
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	77
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	77
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	77
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	76
Jesse Carlson L 2009 · 3.72 FIP	28	SU	3.72	17.5%	6.2%	2.4%	.279	5.39	13.6%	8.5%	14	+1.67	3.28	141	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.5%	9.9%	1.18	4.57
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78