Anthony Bender
P
Miami Marlins
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 29 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9282vR 73
ERA3.03
FIP3.12
K%25.3%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%16.7%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p8829.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.254
SI (32%)
CH (2%)
SL (65%)
FB (33%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 9 | 5 | 33 | 141 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 56% | 3.6 | 15.4% | 3.5% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 3.03 | 2.25 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 9 | 5 | 33 | 141 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 56% | 3.6 | 22.7% | 2.8% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 3.03 | 1.51 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 9 | 77 | 326 | 77 | 19 | 9 | 38% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 3.96 | 4.28 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 9 | 77 | 326 | 77 | 19 | 9 | 38% | 3.2 | 23.6% | 5.8% | 17.8% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.36 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 30 | 9 | 93 | 397 | 54 | 37 | 7 | 30% | 3.1 | 10.5% | 10.7% | -0.2% | 4.0% | 3.57 | 5.79 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 30 | 9 | 93 | 397 | 54 | 37 | 7 | 30% | 3.1 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 4.11 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 36 | 146 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 1.49 | 3.47 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 36 | 146 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.0% | 4.8% | 19.2% | 2.1% | 1.49 | 2.82 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 60 | 1 | 61 | 247 | 71 | 17 | 5 | 2% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 6.9% | 21.9% | 2.1% | 2.79 | 2.72 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 60 | 1 | 61 | 247 | 71 | 17 | 5 | 2% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 6.9% | 21.9% | 2.0% | 2.79 | 2.68 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 3 | 25 | 98 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 11% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 2.92 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 3 | 25 | 98 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 11% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 10.2% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 2.92 | 3.79 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 1 | 56 | 239 | 62 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 7.5% | 18.4% | 1.4% | 4.02 | 2.62 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 1 | 56 | 239 | 62 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 7.5% | 18.4% | 1.7% | 4.02 | 2.78 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 51 | 0 | 50 | 204 | 42 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 2.16 | 3.40 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 51 | 0 | 50 | 204 | 42 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 1.5% | 2.16 | 3.34 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 35 | 0 | 34 | 140 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 21.4% | 0.7% | 2.62 | 2.01 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 123 | 31 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 3.03 | 3.12 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 31 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 3.03 | 3.12 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 63 | 263 | 72 | 21 | 3 | — | — | 27.4% | 8.2% | 19.2% | 1.3% | 2.81 | 2.52 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 63 | 268 | 72 | 21 | 3 | — | — | 26.9% | 8.0% | 18.9% | 1.3% | 2.81 | 2.54 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.2% | 3.68 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 57 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 50 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 61 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.2% | 3.68 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 54 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 411 | 1 | 412 | 1715 | 421 | 148 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 2.0% | 3.36 | 3.23 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 200 | 0 | 200 | 833 | 205 | 72 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 2.0% | 3.36 | 3.23 | +5.1 | ||
| Career | — | 328 | 28 | 466 | 1938 | 383 | 155 | 46 | 9% | 1.4 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 3.13 | 3.75 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 12 | 200 | 832 | 164 | 66 | 20 | 9% | 1.4 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 3.13 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Bender (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.98 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.09 | 22.9% | 13.6% | 176 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.25 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .297 | 2.38 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.87 | 1.99 | 494 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 76 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 76 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .312 | 2.75 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 556 | 75 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.26 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .207 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 17 | +1.20 | 2.39 | 332 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 74 |
| Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 73 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 72 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.29 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .345 | 2.81 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.48 | 2.23 | 367 | 72 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | 2.47 | 22.0% | 15.7% | 31 | -1.43 | 2.37 | 363 | 71 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 60 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 0.94 | 3.92 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Derek Law ('24) | 5 | 60 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 0.88 | 3.47 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |