Anthony Bender
P
Miami Marlins
+0.6
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.59
FIP3.87
xFIP4.75
SIERA4.21
K%22.7%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.9%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p1720.6%
K%
p3920.6%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
SI (32%)
CH (4%)
SL (62%)
FB (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 9 | 5 | 33 | 141 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 15.4% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 3.03 | 2.25 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 24 | 9 | 77 | 326 | 77 | 19 | 9 | 17.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.96 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 30 | 9 | 93 | 397 | 54 | 37 | 7 | 10.5% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 3.57 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 29 | 0 | 36 | 146 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 1.49 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 60 | 1 | 61 | 247 | 71 | 17 | 5 | 28.7% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 2.79 | 2.74 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 28 | 3 | 25 | 98 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 2.92 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 62 | 1 | 56 | 239 | 62 | 18 | 4 | 25.9% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 4.02 | 2.57 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 51 | 0 | 50 | 204 | 42 | 19 | 3 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 1.5% | 2.16 | 3.38 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 8 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.43 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 47 | 205 | 48 | 20 | 4 | 23.7% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 3.29 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 44 | 18 | 4 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 3.79 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 38 | 17 | 4 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.13 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 301 | 28 | 439 | 1832 | 350 | 149 | 41 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 3.22 | 3.74 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 13 | 200 | 835 | 160 | 68 | 19 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 3.22 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Bender (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.86 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.09 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 130 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 77 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 74 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .308 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.32 | 3.45 | 170 | 74 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 73 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 73 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 332 | 73 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 73 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 72 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 72 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 72 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 72 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 227 | 72 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 71 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.51 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.4% | .268 | 4.51 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 136 | -0.00 | 2.86 | 596 | 71 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 71 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2021
Service 4.890 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $4M | +$0.0M | ||