Anthony Bender — OGILVIE

Anthony Bender P Miami Marlins

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9587vR 79

ERA3.17

FIP3.26

K%25.3%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p8829.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.254

SI (32%)

CH (2%)

SL (65%)

FB (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	9	5	33	141	32	4	0	56%	3.6	15.4%	3.5%	11.9%	0.0%	3.03	2.25	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	9	5	33	141	32	4	0	56%	3.6	22.7%	2.8%	19.9%	0.0%	3.03	1.51	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	9	77	326	77	19	9	38%	3.2	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	3.6%	3.96	4.39	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	9	77	326	77	19	9	38%	3.2	23.6%	5.8%	17.8%	2.8%	3.96	3.36	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	30	9	93	397	54	37	7	30%	3.1	10.5%	10.7%	-0.2%	2.9%	3.57	5.14	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	30	9	93	397	54	37	7	30%	3.1	13.6%	9.3%	4.3%	1.8%	3.57	4.11	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	36	146	35	7	3	0%	1.3	16.4%	7.7%	8.8%	1.5%	1.49	3.53	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	36	146	35	7	3	0%	1.3	24.0%	4.8%	19.2%	2.1%	1.49	2.82	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	60	1	61	247	71	17	5	2%	1.0	28.7%	6.9%	21.9%	2.1%	2.79	2.71	+1.3
2021	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	60	1	61	247	71	17	5	2%	1.0	28.7%	6.9%	21.9%	2.0%	2.79	2.68	+1.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	3	25	98	26	10	3	11%	0.9	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	4.0%	2.92	4.78	-0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	3	25	98	26	10	3	11%	0.9	26.5%	10.2%	16.3%	3.1%	2.92	3.79	+0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	56	239	62	18	4	2%	0.9	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	1.4%	4.02	2.62	+1.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	56	239	62	18	4	2%	0.9	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	1.4%	4.02	2.62	+1.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	1	56	239	62	18	4	2%	0.9	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	1.7%	4.02	2.78	+1.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	51	0	50	204	42	19	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.5%	2.16	3.39	+0.7
2025	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	51	0	50	204	42	19	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.5%	2.16	3.39	+0.7
2025	30	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	51	0	50	204	42	19	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.5%	2.16	3.34	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			227	1	218	897	230	72	15	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.0%	17.6%	1.7%	2.97	2.88	+4.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	36	0	35	147	44	12	1	0%	1.0	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	0.8%	3.06	2.03	+1.1
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	36	0	35	147	44	12	1	0%	1.0	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	0.8%	3.06	2.03	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	MIA	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	0%	1.0	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	18.00	1.29	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	MIA	35	0	34	140	41	11	1	0%	1.0	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	0.7%	2.62	2.01	+1.0
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	MIA	35	0	34	140	41	11	1	0%	1.0	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	0.7%	2.62	2.01	+1.0
ROS	31	MLB MLE	MIA	4	0	4	16	4	1	0	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.5%	16.7%	2.2%	3.17	3.26	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	MIA	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.5%	16.7%	2.2%	3.17	3.26	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	39	163	48	13	1	—	—	29.5%	8.2%	21.3%	0.8%	3.07	2.16	+1.2
FULL	31	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	38	161	48	13	1	—	—	29.8%	8.3%	21.5%	0.8%	3.15	2.09	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	64	24	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.9%	14.8%	2.2%	3.68	3.82	+0.6
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	56	0	59	247	57	23	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	2.5%	3.93	4.10	+0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	MIA	58	0	61	258	61	23	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.9%	14.8%	2.2%	3.68	3.82	+0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	53	0	56	236	54	22	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	2.5%	3.93	4.10	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		342	1	338	1405	349	118	27	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	1.9%	3.26	3.12	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	1	200	831	206	70	16	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	1.9%	3.26	3.12	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		329	28	467	1945	385	155	42	9%	1.4	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	2.2%	3.16	3.63	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	12	200	833	165	67	18	9%	1.4	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	2.2%	3.16	3.63	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Bender (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	22.4%	8.8%	2.3%	—	3.95	23.4%	14.2%	122	-0.03	—	—	—
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	84
Joe Kelly R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SU	3.30	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.71	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.38	556	77
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	77
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	77
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	76
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	75
Pedro Báez R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	31	SU	3.14	25.0%	8.0%	2.1%	.207	4.30	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.16	2.29	332	75
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	75
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	74
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	74
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	74
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	73
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.78	22.9%	17.5%	118	-0.50	2.12	354	73
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	72
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	119	72
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	72
Rob Scahill R 2018 · 3.06 FIP	31	SU	3.06	22.6%	9.5%	1.2%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	201	72
Tommy Hunter R 2017 · 2.99 FIP	31	SU	2.99	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.16	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.17	2.78	316	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	23.0%	9.0%	0.90	3.83
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84