Joe Barlow

P Round Rock Express

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	45	1	54	5.37	5.32	20.5%	8.6%	-0.5	K 18.9% · BB 8.6% · FIP 5.79
2024	28	MIX3 levels	15	0	15	9.20	6.92	24.7%	12.3%	—	K 20.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 7.88
2025	29	AAATEX	50	0	65	4.57	4.21	25.7%	8.8%	—	K 22.1% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	31	MLBTEX	62	0	65	4.54	4.50	22.5%	8.0%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBTEX	21	0	22	4.65	4.74	21.8%	8.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBTEX	29	0	30	4.84	4.99	21.1%	9.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

Whiff%62

FB Velo50

K%30

xwOBA vs10

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31) · Mark Serrano (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.54

FIP4.50

K%22.5%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

SL-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	13	3	33	145	29	19	4	23%	2.5	13.6%	16.4%	-2.8%	3.9%	4.41	6.15	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	13	3	33	145	29	19	4	23%	2.5	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.8%	4.41	4.66	—
2018	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	38	0	59	238	91	38	3	0%	1.6	28.3%	18.8%	9.5%	1.4%	1.68	3.84	—
2018	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	38	0	59	238	91	38	3	0%	1.6	38.2%	16.0%	22.3%	1.3%	1.68	2.61	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	57	244	93	42	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	18.8%	12.0%	1.3%	3.16	3.60	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	57	244	93	42	3	0%	1.2	38.1%	17.2%	20.9%	1.2%	3.16	2.73	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	50	190	56	20	3	0%	1.0	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	1.6%	1.98	2.99	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	50	190	56	20	3	0%	1.0	29.5%	10.5%	18.9%	1.6%	1.98	2.84	+1.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	42	172	35	16	5	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.2%	3.46	4.36	+0.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	42	172	35	16	5	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	2.9%	3.46	4.13	+0.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	54	244	50	21	12	2%	1.2	18.9%	8.6%	10.4%	5.8%	5.37	5.79	-0.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	54	244	50	21	12	2%	1.2	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	4.9%	5.37	5.32	-0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	9.0%	9.20	7.88	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	9.0%	9.20	7.88	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.3%	12.3%	6.8%	9.20	6.92	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	22.1%	7.9%	14.2%	4.7%	4.57	4.80	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	22.1%	7.9%	14.2%	4.7%	4.57	4.80	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.9%	4.57	4.21	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	0	74	301	61	27	9	0%	0.9	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.0%	3.05	4.13	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TEX	62	0	65	274	62	22	10	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	3.5%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	57	0	60	254	55	22	9	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.7%	4.65	4.74	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	TEX	53	0	55	233	49	21	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.84	4.99	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	21	0	22	93	20	8	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.7%	4.65	4.74	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	TEX	29	0	30	127	27	11	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.84	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	0	126	523	108	47	17	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.3%	3.76	4.31	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	829	171	74	27	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.3%	3.76	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		298	4	374	1590	371	202	55	1%	1.3	23.4%	12.7%	10.6%	3.4%	3.71	4.62	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	2	200	851	199	108	29	1%	1.3	23.4%	12.7%	10.6%	3.4%	3.71	4.62	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Barlow (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.5%	8.0%	3.5%	—	4.86	21.5%	12.7%	115	+0.36	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	79
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	78
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	75
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	74
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	74
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	74
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	73
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	160	73
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	21.4%	8.6%	1.35	4.20
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*