Aaron Hernandez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Aaron Hernandez P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%22.1%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	20	15	73	336	81	46	6	75%	3.6	18.6%	15.7%	2.8%	2.4%	4.46	4.83	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	20	15	73	336	81	46	6	75%	3.6	24.1%	13.7%	10.4%	1.8%	4.46	3.84	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	63	299	78	44	7	94%	3.9	20.9%	16.4%	4.5%	2.2%	5.57	4.65	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	63	299	78	44	7	94%	3.9	26.1%	14.7%	11.4%	2.3%	5.57	4.16	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	35	3	48	211	50	20	8	9%	1.4	19.2%	10.4%	8.8%	4.0%	5.48	5.01	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	35	3	48	211	50	20	8	9%	1.4	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	3.8%	5.48	4.44	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	11	0	11	56	11	15	2	0%	1.0	16.9%	24.1%	-7.2%	3.9%	7.36	6.88	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	11	0	11	56	11	15	2	0%	1.0	16.9%	24.1%	-7.2%	3.9%	7.36	6.88	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	11	0	11	56	11	15	2	0%	1.0	19.6%	26.8%	-7.1%	3.6%	7.36	7.55	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	12	48	7	6	1	0%	1.2	14.6%	12.5%	2.1%	2.1%	3.86	4.60	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	12	48	7	6	1	0%	1.2	14.6%	12.5%	2.1%	2.1%	3.86	4.60	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	0	12	48	7	6	1	0%	1.2	14.6%	12.5%	2.1%	2.1%	3.86	4.56	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	11.6%	10.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	LAA	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.81	4.88	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	LAA	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.81	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.81	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.81	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		92	33	206	950	182	143	26	36%	2.2	19.1%	15.1%	4.0%	2.8%	5.16	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	32	200	922	176	139	26	36%	2.2	19.1%	15.1%	4.0%	2.8%	5.16	4.92	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	22.1%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.88	21.8%	10.1%	20	+0.13	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	70
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	69
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	68
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	68
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	67
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	67
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	66
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	66
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	66
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	65
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	65
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	321	65
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	65
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	65
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	65
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	64
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	64
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	64
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	64
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	64