Jacob Heatherly

P Birmingham Barons

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX3 levels	36	53	2.72	2.91	38.2%	22.3%	—	K 28.5% · BB 27.2% · FIP 4.47
2024	26	AACIN	37	41	8.06	4.43	27.7%	25.2%	—	K 22.4% · BB 27.8% · FIP 5.02
2026	28	AACWS	21	23	6.26	4.27	32.8%	25.9%	—	K 26.5% · BB 28.4% · FIP 5.03
2027PROJ	29	MLBCWS	14	15	5.36	5.36	25.0%	20.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBCWS	6	6	5.37	5.44	24.5%	19.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsStephen Randolph (age 29) · Braulio Lara (age 28) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%25.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	12	9	40	181	31	20	3	75%	3.3	11.6%	13.8%	-2.2%	2.3%	4.99	5.14	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	12	9	40	181	31	20	3	75%	3.3	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	1.7%	4.99	4.03	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	11	11	39	184	49	40	3	100%	3.5	18.1%	27.2%	-9.1%	2.3%	5.82	6.27	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	11	11	39	184	49	40	3	100%	3.5	26.6%	21.7%	4.9%	1.6%	5.82	4.68	—
2019	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	4	4	9	47	10	6	0	100%	2.2	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	0.0%	8.31	2.92	—
2019	21	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	4	4	9	47	10	6	0	100%	2.2	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	0.0%	8.31	2.87	—
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	5	3	9	37	9	3	0	60%	1.7	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	0.0%	5.19	2.07	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	5	3	9	37	9	3	0	60%	1.7	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	0.0%	5.19	2.06	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	0	53	238	91	53	1	0%	1.5	28.5%	27.2%	1.3%	0.6%	2.72	4.47	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	0	53	238	91	53	1	0%	1.5	38.2%	22.3%	16.0%	0.4%	2.72	2.91	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	41	206	57	52	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	27.8%	-5.4%	0.5%	8.06	5.02	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	41	206	57	52	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	27.8%	-5.4%	0.5%	8.06	5.02	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	41	206	57	52	1	0%	1.1	27.7%	25.2%	2.4%	0.5%	8.06	4.43	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	21	0	23	116	38	30	1	0%	1.1	26.5%	28.4%	-1.9%	1.0%	6.26	5.03	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	21	0	23	116	38	30	1	0%	1.1	26.5%	28.4%	-1.9%	1.0%	6.26	5.03	—
2026	28	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	21	0	23	116	38	30	1	0%	1.1	32.8%	25.9%	6.9%	0.9%	6.26	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CWS	14	0	15	63	16	13	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	20.0%	5.0%	2.7%	5.36	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	21	16	2	0%	1.1	24.5%	19.2%	5.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.44	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	6	5	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	19.2%	5.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	5	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	19.2%	5.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.06	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	160	32	0%	1.1	24.5%	19.2%	5.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		126	27	213	1009	218	239	12	21%	1.7	21.6%	23.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	5.45	4.93	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	25	200	947	205	224	11	21%	1.7	21.6%	23.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	5.45	4.93	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Heatherly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	25.0%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.44	24.5%	5.3%	20	+0.08	—	—	—
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	71
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	71
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	69
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	68
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	68
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	66
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	65
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	65
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.49	24.8%	15.2%	157	-2.05	2.76	314	63
Anthony Gose L 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	19.2%	22.5%	0.0%	.250	4.70	30.1%	12.6%	54	+0.37	3.78	233	63
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	63
Alex Torres L 2016 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	18.5%	18.6%	0.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	184	62
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	62
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	61
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	61
Jordan Norberto L 2015 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	16.9%	14.1%	1.5%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	117	61
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	60
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	60
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	60
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	60